Bram’s Take: A Wise Man Bets Wise Dan

Wise Dan wins the 2014 Maker's 46 Mile at Keeneland. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
This site has been hitting me over the head for the last month with this message that Wise Dan happens to be, “The most interesting horse in the world.”
So two things have happened here: 1) I know there is nothing interesting about extraordinarily consistent performances but 2) I now have been hypnotized into believing this to be true because of number one. He wins all the time every time and who does that?
Now no one is coming to Keeneland Race Course to just hand him the winner’s share of the cool million-dollar purse, but he’s not in the business of being handed charity, he’s into breaking everyone else’s hearts.
He’s won four straight but all of them by less than a length, so it’s almost like he’s toying with the competition. It’s like Usain Bolt when he hot dogs it at the end of the Olympic sprints. He’s so good, he doesn’t need to blow everyone away. It’s almost like he enjoys that look of surprise when a lightning bolt makes that pass at the very last moment.
So, I’m not much for questioning greatness. I’ll be the wise man betting Wise Dan, but maybe there is some money to be made one the horse he beats by a neck.
Sayaad — This horse likes to be in front or near the lead. Good luck holding off the closers in this one. In the one graded stakes race near this class, he took a lead near the stretch then got overwhelmed by a tidal wave of true contenders. So the answer here is: No.
Optimizer — His great demise apparently was greatly exaggerated. So he takes an 8-month break after he was eased at Saratoga in the summer of 2013. Then he comes back and posts two clunkers. His connections couldn't have expected much more considering he’s earned nearly a million bucks in his career. Then, he returns to the Spa this August and nearly pulls off a huge upset as a sizable longshot. Was that a last hurrah or the start of a new era? Considering he’s won 5 of 31 races in his career, I'm not taking him over Wise Dan, et al, however, there is no way anyone can dismiss him after what happened in his previous race.
Grand Arch — This is one of the two horses on a shorter layoff than the rest, but he is as game as they come. A middle post position seems to make this guy much more dangerous. When outside of the post six, he barely hits the board, if at all. This is not who I would expect to win though, especially after coming up way empty in his last race also being a million-dollar pot. He might hit the board.
SILVER MAX WINS THE 2014 FIRECRACKER HANDICAP

Silver Max — A faster pace would seem to bode well for him. Wise Dan doesn't exactly force the pace; neither does Seek Again. So while he’s been erratic —described as stubborn (which is good) and weakened (which is bad) — it’s hard to know what we will get. He might set the pace here, and if he does it may not end well. Silver Max needs to hope someone else does that work for him and lures Wise Dan into an early foot race. This doesn't figure to be the case here. Likely passing.
Kaigun — Like Silver Max a hot pace wouldn’t hurt him, but unlike Silver Max he probably won’t be close to the front. This is starting to shape up to be a huge poker game of who goes all in first. The timing is key, especially with Wise Dan stalking. In the case of Kaigun, this distance might be perfect for him. His 7-furlong turf run on Aug. 10 showed what he is capable of, overcoming being in eighth, a full 7 lengths back, before taking down a group of obviously tired horses. He’s dangerous, especially if the other contenders spend more energy than expected early.
Wise Dan — He’s won 22 of 30 races, including his last four and every other race that appears in the program with the exception of a race last October, which happened to be at Keeneland. Whoops. Does that mean this is the one place that makes him a touch less interesting? Maybe. Probably not.
Two Notch Road — This is the one horse in the field I can’t even pretend to make a case for. Can’t win at the distance or in this class. Not a chance.
SEEK AGAIN WINS THE 2014 FOURSTARDAVE AT SARATOGA

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Seek Again — When English invaders come over, I typically run in the other direction, but here is one of the few who charge onto the American tracks and end up in the winner’s circle. If he runs like his last race at Saratoga with a final time of 1:33.25, he’ll probably win. He’s obviously game and obviously a threat, and like Wise Dan won’t be out front when they make the turn. He’s the most likely one to force Dan into another photo finish.
I assume Silver Max and Sayaad set the pace. I also assume Sayaad is done early. Now how fast this pace is will determine if some of the underlings have a true shot. Wise Dan and Seek Again figure to stay in striking distance, so if they expend more energy then they need to, maybe this opens the door for Kaigun or Grand Arch to steal it in the stretch. I’m more inclined to think in that scenario it is Kaigun who gets there. But Wise Dan has shown so little weakness, all of this talk doesn’t change the fact that I’ve been hypnotized into betting Wise Dan, no matter what.
The Bet: Trifecta - Wise Dan over Optimizer, Grand Arch, Silver Max, Kaigun and Seek Again
Show pony (the horse with good odds who hits the board): Kaigun 
$1-million Shadwell Turf Mile
Keeneland, Saturday, Race 9, post time 5:45 p.m. ET
1 mile on turf, 3-year-olds and older

PP

Horse

Jockey

Wgt

Trainer

M/L

1

Sayaad

Julien Leparoux

126

Kiaran McLaughlin

12/1

2

Optimizer

Alan Garcia

126

Jose Fernandez

12/1

3

Grand Arch

David Moran

126

Brian Lynch

12/1

4

Silver Max

Robby Albarado

126

Dale Romans

9/2

5

Kaigun

Patrick Husbands

126

Mark Casse

10/1

6

Wise Dan

John Velazquez

126

Charlie LoPresti

4/5

7

Two Notch Road

Paco Lopez

126

Glenn Thompson

50/1

8

Seek Again

Joel Rosario

126

Bill Mott

7/2