Justify's Triple Crown Completed Swift Rise to Stardom

THIS TIME WAS DIFFERENT. WHEN American Pharoah  became the first horse in 37 years to sweep the Triple Crown in 2015, racing fans were hopeful they were about to witness history, but so many years of failure had left a shred of doubt the feat could be accomplished. The glorious 1970s were long gone, and the racing gods were not as kind to the horses of the 1990s and those of this century. 

Yes, the fans were confident, as they had been with Big Brown  and Smarty Jones  and California Chrome  and Silver Charm and some of the others on the verge of greatness who had come up short over the sprawling Belmont oval.

So, when American Pharoah strode in solitary splendor down the Belmont Park stretch, the place erupted in unrestrained jubilation, as if some ominous cloud had finally been lifted.

Three years later they returned to see history made by Justify. But now they knew it could be accomplished. The trainer was the same, the co-owner had already won two Belmonts, and there is no rider you would want on a horse in a big-money race who could handle the pressure more than Mike Smith. 

In 2015 the industry craved a Triple Crown winner; to know the feeling of what it was like. So many times it was within grasp. Inches away at the quarter pole; they could all but touch it at the eighth pole; but each time it slipped away. When American Pharoah finally did it, there was almost a sense of disbelief.

This year, however, they knew the feeling and wanted badly to savor it once again; to recapture that glorious moment of celebration and the hugging and kissing and cheering wildly like they had never cheered before.

This no longer was a moment to envision; it was fully embedded in the psyche. The doubts were gone. They knew what it would be like if Justify won.

One could feel the excitement build throughout the Belmont day, especially after Bob Baffert captured the Ogden Phipps Stakes (G1) with Abel Tasman with Smith aboard and followed that up with a score in the Brooklyn Invitational Stakes (G2) with old, reliable Hoppertunity.

Some skeptics felt Justify was tailing off after his narrow victory in the Preakness Stakes (G1), in which his speed figure declined. But most realized he had exited the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) with a foot bruise, had virtually no serious training between races, and was forced to go eyeball to eyeball most of the way with last year's juvenile champion and Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) winner Good Magic. And he still won.

The numbers clouded the enormity of that victory, but Justify's career is not about numbers; it is about winning.

The majority of the fans believed, as did Baffert, that this was no ordinary horse, and they embraced his meteoric rise that defied all logic. Each of the 12 previous Triple Crown winners had added a new chapter to the annals of the sport; Justify rewrote the history books by venturing into uncharted territory and accomplishing feats not even the all-time greats could come close to.

So, again, the grandstand shook. Once again the deafening cheers rose as Justify charged down the stretch, rocking the hallowed halls of Belmont Park.

The script that Justify penned since he burst on the scene in mid-February kept reaching new heights of implausibility. With the addition of the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G1) to his trophy collection, Justify can boast the following accomplishments:

He had become the first horse in 136 years to win the Kentucky Derby without having raced as a 2-year-old.

He had become the second horse in 103 years to win the Derby with only three career starts, and one of only three horses to do so.

He became the second undefeated horse to sweep the Triple Crown.

To put things in proper perspective, it is important to note that Sir Barton captured the Triple Crown 11 months after his career debut; Gallant Fox 11 1/2 months; Omaha 11 1/2 months; War Admiral 13 1/2 months; Whirlaway 12 months; Count Fleet 12 months; Assault 12 months; Citation 13 1/2 months; Secretariat 11 months; Seattle Slew 8 1/2 months; Affirmed 12 1/2 months; and American Pharoah 10 months.

That is an average of almost 11 months between their career debuts and the Belmont. Justify completed his sweep of the Triple Crown just 16 weeks, or 112 days, after his debut.

For a horse to cram six races, four grade 1 victories, and a sweep of the Triple Crown into such a short period of time is unimaginable. Horses just don't do that. And he did it winning his six races at six different distances from seven furlongs to 1 1/2 miles.

In short, we have witnessed something we have never seen before. Imagine the mind and the physical prowess it must take to accomplish such a feat. To use a standard cliché, we must be dealing with a freak of nature.

Justify has remodeled the blueprint of a Triple Crown winner and has eradicated all historical trends, making them irrelevant.

One must remember how much more difficult it is now to sweep the Triple Crown. When Sir Barton became the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont, the foal crop was 1,665. When Gallant Fox won, it was 5,137. When Citation won, it was up to 8,434. When Affirmed won, it was 32,114, but anyone during the 1970s, including claimers and allowance horses, could run in the Derby and often did. Although the foal crop is down to about 23,000, horses must qualify to run in the Derby, with 20 horses each year boasting victories or placings in grade 1 or grade 2 stakes.

Looking at the previous 12 Triple Crown winners, they faced an average of 4.6 opponents in the Belmont, with Count Fleet, Whirlaway, Gallant Fox, and Sir Barton facing either two or three opponents, and Omaha, Secretariat and Affirmed facing four opponents. None of the Triple Crown winners had faced more than seven 

opponents. 

Justify faced nine opponents, four of whom had won or placed in grade 1 stakes; three had won a grade 2 stakes; one had won a grade 3 stakes; one had placed in a grade 2 stakes; and one had won four straight races in England.

When Justify made his career debut, his Belmont Stakes opponents had already made a combined total of 35 starts and won or placed in nine stakes.

In his brief career he leaves a legacy that was best expressed by Nelson Mandela, who said, "It always seems impossible until it's done."

Justify kept doing things that had never been done and proving with every race that nothing is impossible.