DerbyJackpot’s Best Bets of the Weekend for Oct. 4-5

Keeneland Race Course photo by Eclipse Sportswire
America’s Best Racing and DerbyJackpot team up to provide horseplayers with their best bets of the weekend in a regular feature blog that will run on Fridays.
Each week, one of our crack handicappers - Jose Contreras, Dan Tordjman, Victoria Garofalo or Cory Moelis – will provide at least one “Best Bet” of the weekend, ideal for a win bet.
The post also will include some combination of additional bets for the weekend.
For some posts, our handicappers will try to identify a longshot play of the weekend, a nice opportunity to swing for the fences on a win bet or to take a shot with a show bet.
Our handicappers also will look for strong exacta plays for the weekend or occasionally try to spot a nice opportunity to bet a trifecta or superfecta.
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This Weekend’s Bets
Saturday
Best Bet (Win Bet/Monkey Bet)
Keeneland, Race 5, Woodford Stakes, 3:25 p.m. ET
#5 Positive Side: Horse showed nice late kick last time on this turf course in the Shakertown back in April. From there, he continued to chase speedster Marchman all spring long and could never get to him. That one goes again here but is drawn wide and, with the presence of other speedsters, will have to do a lot of work to win this one. Positive Side should enjoy the pace setup and I expect him to be flying late. This horse has been working well and is primed for a nice bounce-back effort off of a freshening. 
Exacta Box (Gonzo Bet)
Keeneland, Race 7, First Lady Stakes, 4:35 p.m. ET
#10 Centre Court: This mare was uncharacteristically put on the pace last time out and flattened a bit late. I would not expect her to be forwardly placed here and reverting back to closing tactics will benefit her in this speed-filled field. She has wins on the course and at the distance. My confident top selection here at 8-1.
#1 Filimbi: This filly tends to get worked up in the paddock, as she did before the Ballston Spa Stakes at Saratoga last time out. She never quite settled in, stalked wide and ultimately faded in the stretch. She looked way too good in the races prior to dismiss her based on the last race. She also flew in her U.S. debut to finish second at Keeneland, overcoming plenty of traffic in the process.
#4 Istanford: I would rate her a lot higher if there weren’t as many speedsters signed up for this one. She’s 4-for-4 at the distance and has to be respected.
Sunday 
Best Bet (Win Bet/ Monkey Bet)
Keeneland, Race 8, Bourbon Stakes, 5:08 p.m. ET
#4 Danny Boy: A half-brother to Meal Penalty, who won the Arlington Classic Stakes going 1 1/16 on the turf. In his debut, Danny Boy rallied from way off the pace and cruised to a 3-length victory. The second-place finisher in that race, Lawn Ranger, came back to win next out and returns to face him again in this race. Corey Lanerie also jumps off challenger Majestico to ride this one. 
Exacta Box (Gonzo Bet)
Keeneland, Race 1, 1:05 p.m. ET
#3 Total Talent: This filly hasn’t been seen in almost a year and drops from a $40,000 claiming price to $10,000 here. Generally, that isn’t a good sign, but she still appears to be the lone speed in a pretty soft-looking field. Trainer Wesley Ward scores 23% off the long layoff, and the jockey wins at a 46% clip for the barn.
#5 Galloping Domino: This horse is one of only two in the field with a win on the main track at Keeneland, although it was on the synthetic surface that has since been replaced by dirt, and appears to be in good form. She should sit a nice stalking trip and be right there in the stretch.