Can Saratoga Make It a $100M Summer for Fasig-Tipton?

The addition of the Summer Selected Horses of Racing Age Sale in conjunction with Fasig-Tipton's 2018 The July Sale resulted this year in a two-day gross of $29,080,500 earlier this month, with the gross of the key July yearling sale portion nudging $20 million and the average edging into six figures at $100,829.

Last year's Saratoga Selected Yearling Sale saw 156 yearlings gross $52,995,000, and the sale for which the over-and-under has been a $300,000 average surged to an average of $339,712. With its New York-bred sale grossing over $16.2 million, Fasig-Tipton's combined gross for July's two days and Saratoga's two sales was $93,399,000 in 2017. With July's two days this year being up almost $4.9 million it wouldn't take much of an increase at Saratoga's two sales for Fasig-Tipton's summer sale gross to break the $100 million barrier.

On the one hand, a $100 million target could well be within reach; there are 14% more yearlings cataloged to the two-day main sale (255 vs. 224 last year), and 10% more cataloged to the New York-bred sale (327 vs. 296). However, more offered doesn't always translate to more sold: in 2016 there were 252 yearlings cataloged to the main sale, yet the same number (156) were sold in 2017, with 11% fewer cataloged than 2016.

Moreover, there were big jumps for both sales in 2017—the gross for the two sales was up nearly $10 million, from $59.2 million in 2016 to $69.2 million last year. More often than not the market has trouble advancing the following year after such big gains. So a $100 million gross for Fasig-Tipton by the end of the N.Y.-bred sale is by no means a certainty, but is reachable—much like Fasig-Tipton's July yearling sale aspiring to gross $20 million; the final tally was $19,762,500.

The 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah  had 13 weanlings and short yearlings average $467,308 in late 2017 and early 2018, so it should help the Saratoga sale's nujmbers that 15 yearlings from his first crop are cataloged for the main sale. Superstars don't come along every day—Frankel was the last one, with his first yearlings averaging over $700,000 in 2015—so we can expect their presence to contribute to the Saratoga yearling sale.  

In fact, no fewer than 25 sires have yearlings from their first crops (designated as first foals 2017, or F2017, sires) cataloged in at least one of the two sales; 12 have yearlings in both sales, 13 just in the N.Y.-bred sale. This total doesn't include Gainesway's Empire Maker , who has five yearlings cataloged to Saratoga from his first crop upon his return from Japan.

There were four first-crop sires whose first weanlings or short yearlings averaged over $100,000 in 2017-18, and these four have the most cataloged at the main sale. Lane's End's Honor Code , who was second to American Pharoah with a $198,500 weanling/short yearling average, has nine cataloged (plus five N.Y.-breds); and the same farm's Liam's Map , who was third by average (13 at $131,281), has 11 cataloged, plus also five N.Y.-breds. Fourth by average was WinStar's Carpe Diem  (20 at $110,475), who also has nine in the main sale, plus four N.Y.-breds. 

Three other sires who debuted with $20,000+ stud fees are also well represented: Lane's End's Tonalist  has five in the main sale, plus four N.Y.-breds; WinStar's Constitution  has four, plus eight N.Y.-breds; and Three Chimneys' Palace Malice , who led all first-year sires with three or more sold at The July Sale (four sold, for an average of $187,500), has six in the main sale, plus four N.Y.-breds.

Five other first-year sires have one or two in the main sale and between four and six in the N.Y.-bred sale, and three sires, including New York first-year sires Normandy Invasion  (Keane Stud, seven offered) and Micromanage  (Rockridge, six offered) have six or more first-crop yearlings in the N.Y.-bred sale. 

Other crops of younger sires are of course not so well represented.

Airdrie Stud's Cairo Prince  has the highest representation among F2016 sires with their first 2-year-olds, with six in the Saratoga sale and another six in the N.Y.-bred sale, while New York stallion Central Banker  (McMahon of Saratoga Thoroughbreds) has 12 in the N.Y.-bred sale. Among F2015 sires with their first 3-year-olds, Hill 'n' Dale's Violence  has four cataloged (plus two), and Ashford Stud's Shanghai Bobby  has one in the main sale plus 10 N.Y.-breds; while among F2014 sires with their first 4-year-olds, Lane's End's Union Rags  has four plus one cataloged, and New York sire Mission Impazible  (Sequel Stallions New York) has seven in the N.Y.-bred sale.

In The Saratoga Sale that takes place Monday-Tuesday, the leading sire by yearlings cataloged is Ashford's Uncle Mo , who has 16 from his fifth crop of yearlings, when he started at a stud fee of $75,000, which kept going up as the results came in for his first 3-year-olds.

Spendthrift Farm's Into Mischief , who has graduated into being a highly sought-after commodity by the commercial market and owner-breeders alike, and whose five yearlings at The July Sale averaged $222,000, has 13 cataloged.

Darley's Medaglia d'Oro  has 12 in the book, and Hill 'n' Dale Farms' Curlin  has 11. Spendthrift's Malibu Moon  has nine cataloged, while Gainesway's three-time champion sire Tapit  and WinStar's Tiznow  have eight each. Three more WinStar sires—Pioneerof the Nile , Speightstown , and More Than Ready — have seven, seven, and six cataloged, respectively. In the N.Y.-bred sale, Sequel's veteran Freud  has 12 cataloged, while Lane's End's Kentucky sire Mineshaft  has eight.

Last year the two Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sales, as noted, grossed $69.2 million. After Fasig-Tipton July's two days totaled $29.2 million, Fasig-Tipton could exit Saratoga with $100 million in receipts for the first time ever if the two sales gross $71 million, or a $2 million (3%) increase from last year. With a 12% increase between the two sales in the number cataloged that $100 million target seems attainable, though by no means assured.

APEX: FRANKEL, UNCLE MO TOP 178 NA-EU SIRES WITH FIRST FOALS 2012-15

The APEX ratings measure the frequency with which stallions sire runners that score in the top 2-8% of runners by annual or seasonal earnings. In order to be assigned APEX ratings, sires must have 10 or more named 3-year-olds of the last year covered (10+ 3-year-olds of 2018, for these Midyear 2018 ratings), eliminating freshman sires as well as those 'below the line' in terms of possible commercial impact. The ratings are compiled on a rolling seven-year basis (so in 2018, the year 2011 is dropped off and the year 2018 added), and ratings are assigned by class, age, and region. The most notable, and important, rating, is a sire's A Runner Index, for which 1.00 = average. 

In our most recent Midyear 2018 run, with data provided by The Jockey Club Information Systems, we find there are 178 North American and European sires with first foals 2012-15 (first 6-year-olds—3-year-olds of 2018) and a minimum number of year-starters per sire crop, of which 22, or 12.4%, have A Runner Indexes of 1.95+.

These 22 cover four crops of sires: 37 F2012 sires with first foals 2012 and 200+ year-starters 2014-18; 46 F2013 NA/EU sires with first foals 2013 and 115+ year-starters 2015-18; 44 F2014 sires with first foals 2014 and 95+ year-starters 2016-18; and, in their first appearances on these tables, 51 F2015 sires with their first foals 2015 —first 3-year-olds 2018—and 40+ year-starters 2017-18. Given such a low number of minimum year-starters it stands to reason the ratings for the F2015 sires will be considerably more volatile than for those with older first foals.

The two standout sires among the 22 are Juddmonte Farm's Frankel (5.93), actually the No.1 ranking sire by A Runner Index among North American and European sires; and Ashford's Uncle Mo (3.83), who ranks No. 5. Frankel is an F2014 European sire whose oldest foals are 4-year-olds this year; Uncle Mo is an F2013 Kentucky sire whose oldest foals are 5. So when somebody asks, "Who is the best young sire around?" The answer begins with, "Where?"

Of the four sire crops reviewed here, the F2012 sires, who have their first 6-year-olds racing this year, and their fifth crops of 2-year-olds, include eight sires which have A Runner indexes over 1.95. Five stand in Kentucky, three in Europe.

The top three have very similar A Runner indexes: tied at the top are Hill 'n' Dale's Kantharos  (2.80), who made his name in Florida standing for $5,000 and has just completed his second season in Kentucky; and France's Haras de Bonneval's Siyouni (2.80), a son of Pivotal bred and raced by the Aga Khan who started out at €7,000 (about US$8,100) and now stands for €75,000 (about $87,400).

Right on their tails is Lane's End's Quality Road  (2.76), who is this sire crop's leader with 19 graded stakes winners and is by far the crop leader with eight grade/group 1 winners. Ireland's Ballylinch Stud's Lope de Vega (2.06) is the crop leader with 34 black-type winners and an amazing 63 black-type performers—exactly 20% of his 316 runners. Also over 1.95 among F2012 sires are Ashford's Lookin At Lucky  (2.40) and Munnings  (2.23); Claiborne's resurgent Blame  (2.12) in Kentucky, and England's Whitsbury Manor's Showcasing (1.96).

The F2013 sire crop includes only Uncle Mo and his perennial runner-up, Lane's End's Twirling Candy  (2.02) with A Runner indexes over 1.95. Only three European F2013 sires, in fact, have A Runner indexes over 1.00: Dream Ahead (1.84), originally at Ireland's Ballylinch Stud but now at France's Haras de Grandcamp; Coolmore's Zoffany (1.59); and France's Haras d'Etreham's Wootton Bassett (1.17), who had Europe's top 3-year-old of 2016, Almanzor, in his first crop of just 18 foals. These horses now have their fourth crops of 2-year-olds running, so figure to be at a low ebb, although Zoffany already has nine 2-year-old winners, including the Royal Ascot Albany Stakes (G3) winner Main Edition.

Five F2014 NA/EU sires with their first 4-year-olds top the 1.95 A Runner Index threshold, though Frankel is of course out on his own. From small crops, Spendthrift's versatile and very good-looking dual grade 2 winner by Smart Strike, Dominus  (3.10) is doing very well, while the North American leader with 200+ year-starters is Airdrie's Creative Cause  (2.09), who is very much coming into his own in 2018.

In Europe both also with smaller number of runners, Darley's Rio de la Plata (2.54), who stands at the Haras du Logis in France, and Campanologist (1.98), a son of Kingmambo who stood at Gestut Fahrhof in Germany, are holding their own, though Campanologist unfortunately died at the end of 2015.

Among F2015 sires with their first 3-year-olds, we have to say it's an ever-developing story, though Darley's Farhh (3.49), a son of Pivotal who had good form behind Frankel on the racecourse, has consistently looked good from small numbers. Intello (3.00), a son of Galileo who has alternated between England's Cheveley Park and France's Haras du Quesnay, has really emerged as a promising young sire this year. Coolmore's Camelot (2.27), who had two grade/group 1 winners in a week, has emerged as the top European F2015 sire by progeny earnings by a wide margin. And the unconsidered Cityscape (2.00), a Juddmonte castoff at England's Overbury Stud, has been a real, pleasant surprise.

The top North American F2015 sire by APEX A Runner Index is Spendthrift's Jimmy Creed  (2.50—do not underestimate); also over 2.00, primarily but not exclusively due to recent impressive Dwyer Stakes (G3) winner Firenze Fire, is Florida's Pleasant Acres' Farm's Poseidon's Warrior  (2.42); and leading 2018 second-crop sire Take Charge Indy (2.11), who should be on his way back to the U.S. from South Korea any minute now.

But this sire crop is very much a work in progress, and honorable mentions must also go to France's Haras de la Haie Neuve's Pedro the Great (1.89); Ashford's Declaration of War  (1.88); and England's Tweenhills Stud's Havana Gold (1.85). One or two good horses and any of these sires can break out quickly; their second crops of 2-year-olds, after all, are just getting going. 

For more information about APEX sire ratings and to access the latest available ratings, as well as Bill's columns and Brianne Stanley's Weekly Sales Ticker, please visit www.billoppenheim.com