Analyze It Aims to Return to Win Column in Secretariat

On one hand, the biggest nemesis Analyze It has faced in his young career will be absent this weekend.

After twice being strides away from victory only to suffer gut-punching losses at the hands of Catholic Boy, the son of Point of Entry  heads into the $400,000 Secretariat Stakes (G1T) Aug. 11 free and clear of the only horse who has defeated him. His talent level has never been in question, and if the bay colt runs to his potential over the Arlington International Racecourse turf Saturday, a first top-level victory should be his for the taking.

If there is one thing Analyze It has reinforced in his last couple of outings, however, it is nothing in racing should ever be taken for granted. After watching their charge's best efforts come up short in consecutive outings, his connections want him to reaffirm his ability and have something to show for it.

"People have asked if I want revenge (against Catholic Boy) and I say we'll run against him down the road, but I just want to get some wins first," laughed Bill Lawrence, owner of Analyze It. "If he's not running against us, I think if you look at the other 3-year-olds, we've been better than most of them by 5-6 lengths.

"But we'd like him to answer some questions and win, too. There is a little more money for first than for second."

Analyze It will have to earn it if he wants to shove his way back into the win column this weekend. Coming off back-to-back narrow defeats in the Pennine Ridge Stakes (G3T) and Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes (G1T), the Chad Brown trainee stands as the 2-1 morning-line favorite in a deep field of 13 entered for the 1 1/4-mile Secretariat Stakes.

There was a point not that long ago when it looked as though reigning juvenile champion Good Magic had some stiff competition for the bragging right of being the best sophomore male in his own shedrow. After winning two starts last year, including the Cecil B. DeMille Stakes (G3T), Analyze It opened 2018 in splendid fashion when he drew off to a 5 1/4-length victory in the April 6 Kentucky Utilities Transylvania Stakes (G3T) that was even more impressive visually than the final margin suggested.

He headed into the June 2 Pennine Ridge with only four challengers signed up to face him and overwhelming favoritism in his corner. When he went by Catholic Boy in the stretch, there seemed to be nothing preventing his record from remaining unblemished. Remarkably, Catholic Boy re-rallied from the jaws of defeat that day and caught Analyze It by a neck at the wire—a move the former repeated in near identical fashion the next month when edging his foe by a head in the July 7 Belmont Derby.

As much as those losses stung his team, there was perspective to be found in defeat. For starters, Analyze It's Belmont Derby effort answered the question of whether 10 furlongs was within his scope. And given that he finished well clear of Hunting Horn and Untamed Domain—second and third choices, respectively, on the morning line for the Secretariat—during those two outings tells his team he was still progressing, even while drawing the short straw.

"I think people are thinking our horse kind of idled. I think the other horse we were running against was just real tough," Lawrence said. "But no one else was really making up any ground on us. It's not like we or Catholic Boy backed up.

"You have to give credit. The other horse ran a little tougher on both those days. But I think my horse has run five winning races. Were it not for Catholic Boy, he would have won by five lengths in the Belmont Derby and the race before … and everyone would be talking about how he's that much better than every other horse. But my horse is still pretty tough."

Analyze It has either been on the lead or in the first flight in his starts and should be forwardly placed again from post 9 Saturday.

Where Brown may be the reigning king of the turf on this side of the Atlantic, there aren't many top-levels prizes around the globe Aidan O'Brien has let escape his grasp. The Ballydoyle helmsman has won the Secretariat four times, most recently with Highland Reel in 2015, and has a two-pronged attack this year with Hunting Horn and Lucius Tiberius.

Owned by Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, and Derrick Smith, Hunting Horn was beaten 1 3/4 lengths during his stateside debut in the Belmont Derby. The son of Camelot entered that test off of a 4 1/2-length victory in the Hampton Court Stakes (G3) at Royal Ascot and will break from the far outside post Saturday.

Lucius Tiberius makes his North American debut in the Secretariat and will be aiming for a third straight win after scoring a pair of victories in his native Ireland. Another son of Camelot, he defeated older horses July 12 in the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Nasrullah Handicap at Leopardstown last time out where he sat at the back of the pack in the 1 1/4-mile event and made a last-to-first move at the top of the stretch to win by a nose.

"Both are in good form," O'Brien said of his Secretariat pair. "Hunting Horn has been in good form since his last run in America, and Lucius Tiberius won at Leopardstown last time and he's in very good form, as well. The firmer ground the better. All of ours would like nice, fast ground, really."

O'Brien's son Joseph has managed to get the better of his father in the prestigious Melbourne Cup and Irish Derby, both group 1 events, and could do the same in the Secretariat with Ming. The gelded son of Pour Moi has made four starts and won his last two. Last out July 14 at Navan, Ming defeated three others while sitting just off the pace under rider William Lee.

"Obviously, it would be a step up in class," Joseph O'Brien said. "He likes fast ground. Sometimes he gets back a bit, but he always finishes up strong. We think that the track will suit him, and we're hoping for a good run."

The only loss of Ming's career took place May 27 in the Airlie Stud Gallinule Stakes (G3) at the Curragh, which was won by fellow Secretariat entrant Platinum Warrior. That outing saw Ming closer to the pace, and he took command in the final 200 meters of the race but was confronted by Platinum Warrior and faded to sixth place.  

"He raced a little too freely that day, so that wasn't his true running," Joseph O'Brien said. "He just burned himself that day. I would like to think we'll be coming from further off the pace this time."

Entries: Secretariat S. (G1T)

Arlington International Racecourse, Saturday, August 11, 2018, Race 9

• Grade IT
• 1 1/4m
• Turf
• $400,000
• 3 yo
• 4:48 PM (local)

PP	Horse	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	1Real Story (KY)	Jose Valdivia, Jr.	119	Ignacio Correas, IV	20/1
2	2Platinum Warrior (IRE)	Joel Rosario	119	Michael Halford	10/1
3	3Bandua (KY)	William T. Buick	119	Dermot K. Weld	20/1
4	4Carrick (KY)	John R. Velazquez	119	Thomas Morley	20/1
5	5Pont Du Gard (LA)	Mitchell Murrill	119	Ignacio Correas, IV	30/1
6	6Ming (IRE)	William James Lee	119	Joseph Patrick O'Brien	20/1
7	7Captivating Moon (KY)	Florent Geroux	119	Chris M. Block	20/1
8	8Untamed Domain (KY)	Irad Ortiz, Jr.	119	H. Graham Motion	5/1
9	9Analyze It (KY)	Jose L. Ortiz	121	Chad C. Brown	2/1
10	10Sniper Kitten (KY)	Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.	123	Michael J. Maker	12/1
11	11Dubby Dubbie (KY)	Jack Gilligan	119	Michelle Lovell	30/1
12	12Lucius Tiberius (IRE)	Wayne Lordan	121	Aidan P. O'Brien	12/1
13	13Hunting Horn (IRE)	Ryan L. Moore	121	Aidan P. O'Brien	7/2