Best Yet To Come in Horse of the Year Race

Wise Dan's win over the weekend took him a step closer to the Horse of the Year title. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
The primaries are over and the big day is on the horizon.
While the actual election will not take place for about three months, the final barbs in a contentious debate over Horse of the Year will be delivered at the Breeders’ Cup on Oct. 31 and Nov. 1.
Last weekend’s Grade 1 stakes brought down the curtain on the Breeders’ Cup preps for the leading Horse of the Year candidates and put in a place a pecking order that should be set in stone after the two days of championship racing at Santa Anita.
According to the National Thoroughbred Racing Association Top 10 poll, Shared Belief and reigning two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan are locked in a fierce stretch duel for racing’s most coveted post-season award. That, of course, will be subject to change after the Breeders’ Cup Classic and Breeders’ Cup Mile on Nov. 1, when both horses – and the other top contenders – will get their chance to make a final lunge at the prize.
Two weeks ago, after Shared Belief won the Awesome Again, the undefeated gelding led Wise Dan in first-place votes (28-16) and total points (441-420) in the NTRA poll. But after Wise Dan’s stirring victory in the Shadwell Turf Mile for his fourth win in as many 2014 tries, the chase tightened up, with Wise Dan attracting more first-place votes (24-19) but Shared Belief garnering more points (420-413) and narrowly holding on to the top spot in first-place votes.
Tonalist was third in the latest poll with 291 points and no first-place votes.
Looking at the overall picture, there are probably eight horses with at least a slim chance of being named Horse of the Year.
Fillies Untapable and Close Hatches are seventh and eighth, respectively, in the latest NTRA poll, and both have just one loss. As fair as it may or may not be, fillies generally need a signature win over males to be considered a viable HOY candidate. Since neither of them have that on their resume, it’s difficult to envision the type of chaos that would need to unfold in order to make either of them No. 1, even if one captures the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.
Close Hatches was third in the previous week’s poll and had two first-place votes, but her startling fourth-place finish in the Spinster last weekend dimmed her HOY chances.
CLOSE HATCHES WON THE OGDEN PHIPPS EARLIER THIS YEAR

Main Sequence is fifth in the poll off a perfect 3-for-3 mark this year with a trio of Grade 1 wins, including the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic in last start. That’s impressive, except that all three wins are on turf against less than stellar competition. Beating Imagining and Twilight Eclipse hardly stacks up as HOY material.
A win over international competition in the Breeders’ Cup Turf would enhance his cause, but with two-time Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner Treve skipping the Breeders’ Cup, it’s unlikely the field at Santa Anita will be strong enough to vault him past the dirt stars or a horse as beloved as Wise Dan – even if all of them go down to defeat at the Breeders’ Cup.
That leaves Wise Dan and four 3-year-olds: Shared Belief, California Chrome, Tonalist and Bayern. The sophomores are all scheduled to race in the $5-million Breeders’ Cup Classic and a win there by one of them should decide the 3-year-old championship.
SHARED BELIEF IS LOOKED AT AS A BIG CONTENDER FOR HORSE OF THE YEAR

Whether that’s enough to eclipse Wise Dan, should he, too, win at Santa Anita is a different matter.
Shared Belief and California Chrome (fourth in the latest poll) should be able to stave off Wise Dan if they win the Classic. Shared Belief would be undefeated in 2014 – and his career - with Grade 1 wins in the Pacific Classic, Awesome Again and Breeders’ Cup Classic, a highly compelling trio. California Chrome would have two losses out of eight starts this year, but when you can collect wins in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Santa Anita Derby that has to trump an array of turf wins, even if three of them are Grade 1’s and the horse in question is Wise Dan.
There’s more grey area with Tonalist. He would have wins in the Belmont Stakes, Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeders’ Cup Classic. That should make him 3-year-old champ (especially since he’d be 2-0 vs. California Chrome), but without the magnetism of an undefeated career record or a Kentucky Derby win, he might not win a beauty contest with a superstar like Wise Dan.
TONALIST WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT THREE-YEAR-OLD HONORS IF HE WINS THE CLASSIC

Bayern, sixth in the poll, is the weakest link. He has only one Grade 1 victory, since the Pennsylvania Derby, despite its $1-million purse, is a Grade 2. Yet even though he was ultra-impressive in winning the Grade 1 Haskell and Penn Derby, those fields basically had one tough customer (Untapable in the Haskell and California Chrome in the Penn Derby), neither of whom fired their best shot.
A win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic could and perhaps should net him the 3-year-old title, but his record is the most flawed of the Fab Four 3-year-olds. He was last in the Travers and ninth in the Preakness - two far more demanding tests than the Haskell and Penn Derby - plus he suffered two other losses this year. Those setbacks could come back to haunt him, especially if he wins narrowly over another top contender on a track that turns out to be as speed-biased as last year’s for the first day of the championship. Put all of that into play against a perfect campaign by Wise Dan – who had to overcome colic surgery this year, to boot – and he just might wind up second best.
Looking at it from a different yet fairly obvious perspective, if the 3-year-olds are upset and Wise Dan win the Breeders’ Cup Mile then it will seal a HOY three-peat for a gallant gelding.
If he loses, the ball is in the 3-year-olds’ court.
Say Wise Dan and all four of the 3-year-olds lose, then Wise Dan and California Chrome would most likely be the two left standing from that group by virtue of having three Grade 1 wins apiece.
CALIFORNIA CHROME MAY UPSET WISE DAN FOR HORSE OF THE YEAR HONORS

That last scenario is highly volatile since the scope of the loss could come into play, meaning a nose loss by Shared Belief could elevate him past a dead-last California Chrome. Meanwhile Breeders’ Cup wins by Main Sequence, Close Hatches or Untapable would inspire their fans and turn them into spoilers at the very least.
Yet for now, the debate has come down to the Breeders’ Cup Mile and the Breeders’ Cup Classic, with one of them likely to produce the Horse of the Year.
The horse race within the horse races is nearing the finish line, and as the song says, the best is quite definitely yet to come.