Inside the Trip - Rich Tapestry Rolls

A frenetic weekend of racing around the U.S. gave us the main series of final preps for the Breeders’ Cup World Championships. With no shortage of data to review, here are some of the highlights, sorted by track.
Santa Anita - Rich Tapestry’s Sensational Score
Contextualizing Rich Tapestry’s score in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes is an incredibly difficult task. The son of Holy Roman Emperor became only the second horse in history to come to America from a Hong Kong base, the first to try it on dirt, and all he does is defeat two Breeders’ Cup winners, from Santa Anita, in his first race off the plane. While he was unbeaten on dirt in Hong Kong from two starts there early in his career, and with success on the Tapeta Footings track at Meydan earlier this year, his run under regular rider Olivier Doleuze was nothing short of brilliant.
There are all sorts of variables that can lead to different timings across the years, but we thought it interesting that Rich Tapestry ran his final quarter-mile in 23.14 seconds and final eighth of a mile in 11.72 seconds. So, we looked back through past Trakus-collected data from key Santa Anita stakes at six furlongs – the 2012 and 2013 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, Santa Anita Sprint Championship, and the 2013 and 2014 editions of the Palos Verdes. How fast did the winners come home (granted, on a different dirt composition compared with the one just installed, and with differing weather, etc.)? We were surprised to learn that Rich Tapestry’s final quarter and final eighth were the fastest of any of the winners in those races, and he was closer to the lead at the quarter pole than all but one.
Of the six races compared with Rich Tapestry’s performance last weekend, only one race had the eventual winner on the lead with two furlongs to run (Trinniberg – 2012 Breeders’ Cup Sprint). Rich Tapestry was 1 ¾ lengths behind at that point in his local debut. All others were at least three lengths, and no more than 4 ½ lengths, behind the lead at the quarter-pole. The next quickest finisher was Wild Dude in his 2014 Palos Verdes score, home in 23.24 and 11.81 seconds, followed by Sahara Sky in the same race in 2013, home in 23.52 and 11.92 seconds. The final splits in the last two Breeders’ Cup Sprints were much slower compared with those others, with 2013 winner Trinniberg, on the engine, home in 24.18 and 12.44 seconds, and Secret Circle home in 24.47 and 12.46.
Maybe the incredibly warm weather was responsible in part for the very fast times, or maybe Rich Tapestry is just a complete freak on the dirt. Who knows what we will see from the Hong Kong invader when he takes on a much bigger field with more diverse competition, but there is just no getting over how impressive was this inaugural American performance.
Keeneland – Opening Weekend
How much one gleans from the Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes is nearly a guessing game. There is no denying that Peace and War’s American debut was an impressive one, exhibiting patience, resilience, and push-button acceleration not often seen from a juvenile making her fourth lifetime start.
PEACE AND WAR TAKES ALCIBIADES

Coady Photography
Horses that were first through fourth at the finish were actually 11th, ninth, 12th, and 10th after the first half-mile. While Take Charge Brandi ran off to an opening-quarter in 22.42 seconds, according to the Trakus sectional timing, eventual winner Peace and War covered that distance in just 24.22 seconds, 1.80 seconds slower. Rank outsider Paige, last early through a quarter in 24.50 seconds, was also a massive closer at the finish.
Take note of the rank of the horses based on the speed of their sectional times from the first quarter of the race and the last quarter of the race. The three slowest horses in the opening sectional were the three fastest, in mirror order. Paige, slowest early, was the quickest late. Peace and War was second slowest, then second fastest. Top Decile was third slowest early, and the third fastest home.

Given Keeneland’s surface switch to dirt, the immediate impact of these races obviously takes on greater significance in handicapping the Breeders’ Cup. If you are looking for a longshot that could emerge from this spot under the radar, it could be the fifth-place finisher Naval Command. Fairly close early, jockey Juan Leyva was forced closer to the pace leaving the backstretch in order to maintain position and not get caught behind the front-runners. Advancing outside of Fashion Alert at that point, perhaps too soon, she stayed on well despite the pace and early move, only fading in the final sixteenth of a mile. As the rankings above show, the daughter of Midshipman was the fifth-quickest early, and fifth-quickest late, a rare bit of consistency in a field that lacked it at the end.
Wide trips were notable for third-place finisher Paige and seventh-home Gap Year, the former going 24 feet more than the winner, the latter covering 46 feet more. These were the third-widest and widest trips in the race, respectively.
First Lady Stakes winner Dayatthespa had no trouble with a bit of give in the ground and landed the knockout punch in the Grade 1 affair. While early pacesetter Istanford finished last, the daughter of City Zip earned her second Grade 1 at Keeneland by tracking just behind the early pace and kicking clear in the stretch. Overall, Dayatthespa ran just the fifth-fastest final quarter-mile in 23.75 seconds but clearly got the much-needed jump on the competition. Centre Court, whose 2014 campaign has been a relative shell of previous years, was quickest over the last quarter, home in 23.09 seconds. Fifth-place finisher Somali Lemonade covered 15 feet more than the winner and was beaten just 1 ¾ lengths. Overall, she averaged the same speed as Dayatthespa over the course of the First Lady, 38.1 mph.
Wise Dan did it again, winning yet another Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes, remaining unbeaten on grass for the last three years, and adding to his legend as one of the great geldings in American history. The son of Wiseman’s Ferry won by a length, but saved ground much of the way before swinging out late in the lane. His last two furlongs were quickest for the race, home in 23.23 seconds, 0.29 seconds faster than the next-swiftest in the stretch (that was fourth-place finisher Kaigun). Second-place finisher Grand Arch covered 16 feet more than Wise Dan, while Kaigun covered an extra 20 feet. All three horses mentioned above averaged the same speed for the race, 37.9 mph.
Sunday’s Dixiana Bourbon Stakes went to Lawn Ranger, stalking the lead and hanging on for a win over Danny Boy, racing for Donegal Stables. Lawn Ranger covered less ground than the next two finishers and was also 0.28 seconds slower over the final quarter-mile. Danny Boy and Can’t Happen Here closed from 10 and 12 lengths off the lead, respectively, after the opening two furlongs to land in the money, each running that last quarter in 22.86 seconds.
Belmont – A Tale of Two Times
The Grade 1 Frizette and Champagne Stakes were conducted just an hour apart, and both run over a very sloppy main track. Both races were won by horses that sat just off the early lead, and were placed outward from the rail. Through the half-mile, the Frizette was faster by less than a fifth of a second. The similarities basically stopped there.
By The Moon, the 24-1 upset winner of the Frizette, ran her final quarter in 27.88 seconds according to the Trakus sectional timing. The quickest final split of the race came from second-place finisher Wonder Gal, home in 27.62. Compare it with the horses in the Champagne Stakes, and the differences are stark. Champagne winner Daredevil ran his final two furlongs in 25.31 seconds (2.31 faster than the fastest finisher in the Frizette), while second-place finisher Upstart got the distance in 25.51. Even third home, The Truth or Else, beaten some 15 ¼ lengths, ran the final quarter in 27.15 seconds, almost a half-second faster than Wonder Gal. 
DAREDEVIL IMPRESSED IN CHAMPAGNE

Photo by Chelsea Durand/NYRA