Your Pigskins and Ponies Picks for Oct. 10-12

Welcome to ABR’s Pigskins and Ponies column, where winners play!
Horse racing is my means to an end, and I love the sport like no other, but I admit it, like most of you on a Sunday afternoon in the fall, it’s hard to pull me away from my couch … and NFL RedZone.
I have a wanted sign in Vegas and am feared by fantasy football mavens nationwide, but when it comes to the college game, I chose to punt.
That’s where Derek Cooley comes in. The dude is a loaded gun of university knowledge.
Let’s kick off the football, spring the horses from the gate and pad our bankrolls!
Pro Pigskins – by Joe Kristufek
Sometimes you invest the right way and lose, and on other occasions you play the wrong team but are fortunate enough to win.
In such scenarios, turnovers and stupid mistakes often make the difference. Ladies and gentlemen, meet your 2014 Chicago Bears.
The outplayed the Carolina Panthers visually and on paper, but inexcusable mistakes cost them in a straight-up loss.
As expected, the Kansas City Chiefs gave the San Francisco 49ers a game and covered the number, but the New England Patriots returned to form, as did the Bungles, who just can’t seem to bring their “A” game when the spotlight is on. 
Pro Football Trifecta
Last week: 1-2 (.333); Season Total: 8-7 (.533)
Some weeks, it’s tough to hone in on playable games … based on totals. Over/unders give us a viable option, and for the first time since this column kicked off, we’ve got a couple game totals we like quite a bit. #takeadvantageofopporunities 
Sunday, Oct. 12
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (UNDER 43)
Quietly, the Chargers have emerged as one of the best teams in the league. The offense is banged up, but underrated leader Philip Rivers continues to find a way, and the defense is stout. A new coach, rest off the bye week and the return of rookie QB Derek Carr, who has shown signs of competency, give the Raiders some hope. The Chargers should win, but it probably will be a game with lots of running and short passing, which lends itself to a running clock and a lower-scoring game.
PHILIP RIVERS COULD HAVE A BIG WEEK

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Seattle Seahawks (-8 1/2) vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are one of the league’s biggest surprises, but it’s a long season. The defense has overachieved and they’re very likely to be exposed by a well-balanced Seahawks offense that can beat you in many ways. DeMarco Murray is enjoying a career year, but the Seahawks top-ranked rushing defense will be inspired to put an end to his string of 100-yard rushing games to start the season. Richard Sherman will limit Dez Bryant, and Tony Romo might respond to the raucous Seahawks crowd by throwing a pick or two.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (OVER 53 ½)
Two of the best passing games in the league will match strides and neither defense is strong enough to get consistent stops. The Bears can’t get any pressure on the quarterback, and even the Falcons’ makeshift offensive line should be able to keep the Bears pass rushers in check most of the game, allowing Matt Ryan to pick apart a very suspect secondary with a dangerous arsenal of weapons. The Bears also will score their share in what could turn out to be an old-fashioned shootout.
College Pigskins – by Derek Cooley
Let’s briefly take a look at our plays from a week ago.
Ouch. Again. Not a good week for anyone really, except for the fan in all of us. What an incredible week in that aspect, and by the end of the day — win or lose — we were still pretty happy with what was on display.
Melvin Gordon ran for more than 250 yards, and Wisconsin lost. The bounce of the ball went TCU’s way and who really can accurately pick the WAC. On the bright side, we didn’t even need the points in our upset pick as all of Ole Miss celebrated like I’ve never seen a team celebrate win number five before. That really was something to watch.
On to the next one ...
College Football Spot Plays Week Seven
Last week: 1-3 (.333); Season Total: 8-12 (.400)
Time to up the ante. Law of averages, right? To be honest, this year has been rough to pick, but what’s been even rougher is trying to pick the four spreads I like the most. That’s where the overthinking comes into play.
I’ve gone to a different method, and am strictly adhering to this method. Plus, less explanations, more picks. I’ll go more into detail next week. Here we go.
Washington State (+17) @ #25 Stanford (Friday, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The top-ranked passing offense will keep it relatively close against a solid Stanford D. 
#8 Michigan State (-22) @ Purdue (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2)
Look for Mark Dantonio to have his Spartans play a full 60 minutes en route to a sizable victory. 
Wisconsin (-26) vs. Illinois (noon ET, ESPN)
Melvin Gordon dominated last week, but the QB conundrum at Wisconsin cost the Badgers a game. Look for Gordon to be all Wisconsin needs against a BAD Illinois team. 
GORDON FIGURES TO EXCEL THIS WEEK AGAINST HAPLESS ILLINOIS

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#13 Georgia (-3) @ #23 Missouri (noon ET, CBS)
Missouri beat South Carolina … South Carolina beat Georgia … so for all that is holy in college football, Georgia will complete the cycle with a key SEC road win. And cover. 
#2 Auburn (-3) @ #3 Mississippi State (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
Auburn’s offense with Nick Marshall is simply better and more experienced than any team MSU has played. With just an average defense, the buzz around the Bulldogs will fade after this loss. Auburn covers.
#12 Oregon (-3) @ #18 UCLA (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX)
Quarterback Marcus Mariota won’t let Oregon lose another game. Period.
#16 Oklahoma State (-21) @ Kansas (4 p.m. ET, FOX Sports 1)
Doesn’t matter where it is, Oklahoma State is better than just a three-touchdown favorite over lowly Kansas.
#14 Texas A&M (-3) @ #3 Ole Miss (9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
This isn’t an afternoon in Oxford. This will makes things even more exciting. Aggies win and cover.
#10 Arizona (+3) vs. USC (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
USC on the verge of packing it in, but will fight on. This game will come down to the wire either way, so give me the team with the points.
Ponies – by Joe Kristufek
I love it at Keeneland Race Course, even more so with the return to dirt.
It was a good week.
No Nay Never held on for dear life to win the Woodford at nearly 5-2 and Leigh Court stamped herself as a legit Breeders’ Cup horse with an emphatic score in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes at generous odds of 5-1.
Somali Lemonade failed to provide the icing to the cake, but we more than doubled our weekly bankroll and hope to keep padding as Breeders’ Cup approaches.
Last week: 3-2-0-0 ($2 WPS * $18 wagered * $38.60 returned)
Season Total: 15-6-2-0 ($2 WPS * $90 wagered * $107.70 returned = $7.18 ROI)
Saturday, Oct. 11
Keeneland – Lexington, Ky.
9th Race – $500,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (Grade 1)
#3 Speed Seeker (morning-line odds, 12-1)
The 2014 renewal of one of my favorite races is about as competitive as it can be. The 12-1 morning-line odds on Speed Seeker seem a little high but, yes, she should fly under the radar against several more high-profile rivals. Two of her three career starts produced romping wins, and her fifth in the Grade 2 Lake George Stakes two starts back was better than it looks. She’s well rested and has trained smartly leading up to this. The risk is certainly worth the potential reward.
Belmont Park – Elmont, N.Y.
8th Race – $200,000 Knickerbocker Stakes (Grade 3)
#3 Za Approval (morning-line odds, 7-2)
His main claim to fame is a runner-up performance behind Wise Dan in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile, but Za Approval is a millionaire and eight-time winner on grass. He shook off a slump to score a sharp win at seven furlongs in a minor stakes last out and finds the perfect spot at perhaps his best distance today.
ZA APPROVAL WINNING 2013 KNICKERBOCKER

Photo by Adam Coglianese/NYRA
Santa Anita – Arcadia, Calif.
Race 9 – $100,000 California Distaff Handicap
#1 Global Hottie (morning-line odds, 8-1)
Second in her career debut with blinkers on, Global Hottie has romped twice since tossing the hood aside. This will be only her fourth start overall and just the second of the season. The rail post isn’t the greatest down the hill, especially when a horse has yet to experience the adventure, but this gal appears to have more upside than most of these, and the price should be fair enough to take a shot.