Fasig-Tipton's $110 Million Summer

When I wrote my July 31 column, it looked like Fasig-Tipton had a shot to break $100 million with their three summer yearling sales—The July Sale, The Saratoga Sale, and the New York-Bred Preferred Yearlings Sale. But I thought they would have to include their July Horses of Racing Age sale to crack that barrier.

After The Saratoga Sale was up by $9.8 million and the N.Y.-bred sale saw a $2.2 million increase in gross, the yearling sales broke through the $100 million barrier with a combined three-sale gross of $101,048,500. This was an 18% increase in the $85,311,000 the three sales grossed last year. When we add the July HORA sale, the total Fasig-Tipton summer sale gross was $110,366,500, also an 18% increase from the combined 2017 gross of $93,399,000. The yearling average for 538 yearlings sold was $187,822, a 12% gain from the corresponding 2017 average of $167,286.

It wasn't totally sunshine and roses, though, to which Fasig-Tipton president Boyd Browning Jr. alluded in his post-sale remarks.

Yes, you get paid, and paid very well, if your yearling 'clears the bar,' but if not, there's nobody there and, as Browning said, the 'cut line' is edging ever higher. This was reflected in the three-sale yearling clearance rate of 57.8%, a 4.6% decline from last year's 62.4% clearance rate for the three yearling sales.

Fasig-Tipton cataloged 931 yearlings in the three sales, an increase of 114 (14%) from last year, yet sold just 28 more yearlings (+5%) than last year, which is why the increase in gross is greater than the increase in average. Whether these double-digit increases will be replicated at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale—with nearly five times the number of yearlings cataloged than in the three Fasig-Tipton yearling sales combined—remains problematic. But that in no way detracts from the Fasig-Tipton team's accomplishments: a $17 million increase in gross over their four summer sales is a huge win.

In 2017, five sires stamped themselves as the commercial 'elite of the elite' by recording yearling averages over $650,000: Dubawi, Galileo, and Frankel in Europe, and War Front  and Tapit  in North America. Darley's flagship American sire, Medaglia d'Oro , ranked sixth, but far behind the top five, with an average just under $400,000.

Enough of that, the market decided: Medaglia d'Oro was the leading North American sire by average at this year's 2-year-old sales, with eight selling for an average of $589,375, including three seven-figure 2-year-olds (ahead of Tapit, who had four sold for an average of $496,250, and Scat Daddy with 27 sold for an of average $481,852).

At the three Fasig-Tipton yearling sales, War Front qualifies, narrowly, as the leading sire by average with two selling for an average of $787,500. Medaglia d'Oro is a very close second with seven averaging $785,000, including three seven-figure yearlings, and a median of $635,000. Looks like that top five is about to become a top six.

Make that seven. Dubawi (2) and Frankel (3) are about to get underway at Arqana's Deauville August Sale starting Aug. 18; Galileo has already had three yearlings average $311,298 at the Tattersalls July Mixed Sale, and has six cataloged at Deauville.

So those three, along with War Front, Tapit, and Medaglia d'Oro are the established sires, and number seven is of course 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah , who's had 12 yearlings sell so far, for an average of $516,250. He does have just 81 cataloged for Keeneland September, though, so whether he can really sustain a $500,000 average with that many cataloged remains to be seen. If not, that many numbers could mean buyers have a chance to find something affordable by one of the most exciting sire prospects in years.

Besides the four sires that averaged over $500,000 so far (War Front, Tapit, Medaglia d'Oro, and American Pharoah), three other sires averaged over $400,000 at the three Fasig-Tipton sales, and another eight averaged over $300,000.

In the 400's were: Curlin  (seven/$474,286); Pioneerof The Nile  (six/$451,667); and Hard Spun  (three/$441,667). In the 300's were: Into Mischief  (a remarkable 20 sold/22 cataloged for an average of $364,250); Empire Maker  (four/$361,250); Quality Road  (four/$352,500); Violence  (four/$333,750); Blame  (three/$323,333); Uncle Mo  (13/$323,000); Candy Ride  (six/$317,500); and More Than Ready  (six/$308,333). All of these will have many more in September.

It's a hot group of sires with their first yearlings too, headed of course by American Pharoah. But eight other first-crop yearling sires have averaged over $100,000 with two or more sold at the three Fasig-Tipton sales.

Lane's End stands three of the eight: second-ranked (by 2018 yearling average from July on) Honor Code  (12/$283,333); fifth-ranked Liam's Map  (12/$175,000); and sixth-ranked Tonalist  (5/$153,000). WinStar stands two: third-ranked Carpe Diem  (10/$212,000) and Constitution , ranking ninth with 10 yearlings averaging $110,000 so far.

Hill 'n' Dale's Bayern  ranks fourth with nine selling from nine offered and 10 cataloged for an average of $188,333; Claiborne's Lea  ranks seventh among the first-crop yearling sires, with four averaging $142,500; and Three Chimneys' Palace Malice  ranks eighth, with 12 averaging $129,167.

Though averages inevitably will fall due to massive numbers, the fact is this is a very promising group of young sires, in numbers as well as in quality. Fasig-Tipton's summer results give an uptick to breeders who can at least go into the September market with excitement as well as anxious anticipation. Prices are strong if the horse can clear the bar.

THE OTHER SPA: SIYOUNI TIME

The European yearling sales season kicks off Aug. 18 at another spa—Deauville, France—home of the Arqana August Yearling Sale. This four-day sale has a total of 485 yearlings cataloged and is broken into three separate sections and two books.

Book 1 is the first three days—two Select evening sessions Aug. 18 and 19 with 85 head a night, and then there is an all-day Open session Aug. 20, with 175 cataloged (171-345). The fourth night consists of a separate book for what is called the 'V.2' sale Aug. 21. This is billed as something like the Fasig-Tipton July yearling sale, emphasizing yearlings that are more precocious. There are 140 yearlings cataloged for this session (346-485). 

For the last four years the Select sessions have grossed between €29-€31 million, and averaged between €214,000-€247,000. There were 174 cataloged in the Select session last yea, compared to the 170 this time. One feature of this sale is a sparkling clearance rate—not just of those through the ring, but of the total number cataloged.

European sales traditionally have about a 10% higher clearance rate than North American sales. In 2016, Deauville's two select sessions registered a 73.5% clearance rate from the catalog; it dropped a bit last year, to 70.1%, but compared to American sales, with clearance rates from the catalogs in the 50's—there's no comparison. Last year's select session averaged €240,008. Over the entire four-day sale last year, 337 yearlings (70.5% of the 478 cataloged) grossed €43,097,000 and averaged €127,884. 

Europe's top three sires are all represented at Deauville: Galileo has six yearlings cataloged, Dubawi two, and Frankel three—all in the select sessions. Haras de Bonneval's Siyouni, who tops the 2018 French general sire list, has the highest representation throughout the four days, with 30, of which 15 are in the select session, 10 in the Open session, and five in the V.2 sale. He stood for €75,000 this year, though he had a fee of €30,000 in 2016, when these yearlings were sired.

Other top French sires Kendargent (first foals 2009, nine cataloged), Le Havre (F2011, 20), and Wootton Bassett (F2013, 27) are well represented, as well as Dabirsim (F2015, 27), who started in Germany but has now moved to France's Haras de Grandcamp.

Siyouni has the most cataloged in the select sessions, followed by Ireland's Yeomanstown Stud's Dark Angel, with 12 yearlings in the select sessions. There is also representation from Europe's three most exciting first-crop yearling sires: England's Dalham Hall Stud's Golden Horn and Ireland's Coolmore's Gleneagles have eight yearlings each, while England's Nunnery Stud's (Shadwell) top sprinter Muhaarar has seven; 20 of those 23 are in the select sessions, the remaining three in the Aug. 20 Open session. There are also two yearlings cataloged by the top first-crop American sire, American Pharoah, in the catalog.