Accelerate Deserving Favorite in Pacific Classic

As has regularly been the case at Saratoga Race Course this summer, everyone will be keeping an eye to the sky Saturday, Aug. 18, when 3-year-old fillies are spotlighted in the prestigious Alabama Stakes (G1) on the main track and the Lake Placid Stakes (G2T) scheduled for turf. Thunderstorms are likely in the morning, followed by the chance of more scattered storms in the afternoon. 

Out where the surf meets the turf, fast and firm conditions—what else?—are expected for the $1 million TVG Pacific Classic (G1), which will be preceded by two turf stakes that drew full fields of 12: the Del Mar Handicap Presented by the Japan Racing Association (G2T) and the Del Mar Oaks Presented by The Jockey Club (G1T).

Alabama (Sar, race 9, 5:40 p.m. ET): Taking a line through Monomoy Girl, it seems as though Midnight Bisou (3) and Talk Veuve to Me (8) are close on ability. Both have finished second behind the divisional leader: Midnight Bisou by three lengths in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) opening weekend at the Spa, and Talk Veuve to Me by two lengths in the Acorn (G1).

Midnight Bisou and Talk Veuve to Me have similar pace-pressing styles, and so does She's a Julie (4), the likely third choice off a big win in the Iowa Oaks (G3). If they all knock heads up front, it could work to the advantage of Eskimo Kisses (2), who had a useful effort finishing fourth in the CCA Oaks first time out since a fourth in the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1).

Eskimo Kisses would relish a late-afternoon rainstorm, judging from a big win in the slop at Oaklawn Park. If that occurs, she moves from a C to a B.

A - 3

B - 4, 8

C - 2

Lake Placid (Sar, race 8, 5:02 ET): To the surprise of absolutely no one, this 1 1/8-mile turf race goes through Chad Brown, who sends out morning-line favorite Rushing Fall (6) and second choice Significant Form (4).

Contrarians at least have some ammunition for going against those two (lotsa luck), since Rushing Fall has never been past 1 1/16 miles, and, if it rains, Significant Form has no experience on turf labeled anything other than firm.

Plus, it's not like either one has a tremendous edge numbers-wise on Thewayiam (1) or Daddy Is a Legend (2), both of whom are very sharp now. Thewayiam was just a length back of Rushing Fall in the Appalachian (G2T) on yielding ground, and she has since been second in the Penn Oaks and the Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1T) for Graham Motion, who is overdue for some better racing luck at this meet. Daddy Is A Legend comes off a rail-skimming run to take the Lake George (G3T), and is the lone entrant to have won at this distance.

A course rendered yielding or soft would make Capla Temptress (4) worth a second look, as she won over soft going overseas as a 2-year-old. If that turns out to be the case, move her up to a B.

A - 6

B - 1, 2, 3

C - 4

TVG Pacific Classic (Dmr, race 10, 6:43 PT): Accelerate (5) was third in this race a year ago behind Collected and Arrogate , but meets no rivals of that caliber here and will probably go lower than his 8-5 quote since he is the fastest horse in the field and has beaten several of these convincingly.

I'm somewhat suspicious of Bob Baffert's pair of Dr. Dorr (2) and Roman Rosso (4). Dr. Dorr was a well-beaten second to Accelerate three races back and has regressed in two subsequent starts, suggesting his form is a bit stale right now. The Argentina-bred Roman Rosso has run only once this year, holding on to win the Premio Latinoamericana in Uruguay over a 40-1 shot who was giving him nine pounds.

Prime Attraction (3) lost to Accelerate twice last winter, but the first try was a solid second in the San Pasqual (G2), and the next was a throwout on a sealed track in the Santa Anita Handicap Presented By San Manuel Indian Bingo & Casino (G1). He was freshened for over four months after that, and returned with a game pace-setting try in the Eddie Read (G2T). He won off a turf-to-dirt switch at Del Mar last fall, rallying from just off the pace to take the Native Diver (G3).

A - 5

B - 3

Del Mar Handicap (Dmr, race 6, 4:40 PT): There is a feeling of trepidation here, because the three horses to have won graded stakes on turf are Itsinthepost (6), who has won seven times at the grade 2 level in 2017-18, Ashleyluvssugar (8), who won the 2016 renewal of this event, and Flamboyant (2), who narrowly prevailed in the San Francisco Mile (G3T) two starts ago.

Collectively, however, the aforementioned trio are 1 for 26 over the Del Mar turf course, and it's arguable Ashleyluvssugar is not as formidable at age 7 as he was in seasons past.

Intriguing alternatives are Kenjisstorm (1), who could control the pace in this three-turn affair under the master tactician Gary Stevens; and the import Cashman (11), who sheds 15 pounds off a win in Germany five weeks ago and makes his U.S. Debut for Team Valor International and Neil Drysdale.

A - 6

B - 1, 8, 11

C - 2

Del Mar Oaks (Dmr, race 8, 5:40 PT): The fact that Colonia (7) is the lukewarm morning-line favorite off a win in the ungraded Hatoof suggests this race is totally up for grabs. Indeed, of the dozen fillies entered, only Fatale Bere (5) and Paved (6) have won graded stakes on grass.

This looks like a good spot for an up-and-comer like Ollie's Candy (4), a versatile runner who started off with a pair of sprint wins on the all-weather surface at Golden Gate Fields. She then stretched out to take the Summertime Oaks (G2) on dirt at Santa Anita, before breaking from post 13 and unleashing a flying finish to get up for second in the San Clemente (G2T) on this turf course four weeks ago.

A - 4, 6

B - 7