Predicteform Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Analysis

Ball Dancing (above winning the Sands Point Stakes at Belmont Park) is a top contender for the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes on Saturday at Keeneland Race Course and figures to be especially formidible if rain renders the turf yieldinig or soft. (Photo by Joe Labozzetta/NYRA)
This weekend's featured stakes race of the week is the $500,000, Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes for 3-year-old fillies run at 1 1/8 miles at Keeneland Race Course.
We will provide race analysis for the top four horses with the strongest Pace Figures and Form Cycle Patterns while also taking into account the morning-line odds. The current forecast for Lexington calls for more than a 50% chance of rain on both Friday and Saturday, which is acknowledged in the analysis.
Please click the links for your FREE Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes Pace Figures and Past Performances. 
Ball Dancing (9-2)
One of two runners for turf specialist Chad Brown, Ball Dancing made a splash in her U.S. debut winning the Grade 2 Sands Point Stakes. She is the first graded or group stakes winner produced by Ball Gown, her dam who has had nine other runners make the track. Prior to the Sands Point, she finished in a dead heat for fifth in the $1.3-million French Oaks.
Her Final Pace Figures of 68.4/43.8 look to be lower than most of the field, however it must be noted that because she never raced in the U.S. before the likely PLOW pattern would not be recognized. The fact that she has raced only as a 3-year-old is also interesting as continued forward progress would not be surprising.
The Play: Contender – This filly looks like she can compete in Grade 1 stakes, and given the expected off turf (good, soft, yielding), her European pedigree should help her take to the conditions.
Crown Queen (4-1)
A $1.6-million purchase out of the Keeneland November breeding stock sale, Crown Queen is beginning to look the part after her first graded stakes win last time out. She has a strong work pattern with two bullet workouts followed by a maintenance work on Oct. 5 at Keeneland.
Her half-sisters are well represented on the track as well. Royal Delta (2008) was a two-time Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic winner and earned more than $4.8-million, while another other older sister Carnival Court (2010) finished third in the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes in 2013.
Hall of Famer Bill Mott trained Crown Queen’s dam, Delta Princess (career earner of $740,918), Royal Delta and now Crown Queen. All this adds up to a seriously bred filly that still has plenty of room to improve.
CROWN QUEEN WINNING LAKE PLACID STAKES

Photo by NYRA
Turning to Crown Queen's Pace Figures, she showed strong progression her first three starts going 68.8/42.8 – 72.2/53.7 – 78.5/67.9 (most recent). Notice the 10-point improvement in the final figure while decreasing dirt spread figure from 26 to 13. Dirt spread is final figure minus four-furlong figure. It was not surprising to see regression in her next race (off that lifetime top of 78.5) though the 76.9/62.2 in his last start looks like the foundation for another forward move.
She has one win in as many starts on a good turf track on June 15, 2014. Looking back at the historical weather pattern for that week, 36 hours prior to post-time there was a major thunderstorm that dumped a ton of rain on the track. They were off the turf on June 14 and then back on turf rated as good on June 15.

The Play: Contender – Lots to like with success on turf rated good. If the surface is good or firm, she is the top pick, and otherwise its Ball Dancing.
Aurelia's Belle (15-1) and Sistas Stroll (12-1)
These two starters have a couple of things in common and different, which is why we will cover them together. They exit out of the same race, the Grade 3 Pucker Up Stakes at Arlington Park run on a soft turf course. The both ran a PLOW Form Cycle Pattern (Pace Low – slowest 4 furlong figure while not paired with a significant final figure top). Specifically, Sistas Stroll went from 73.5/67.7 to 60.4/53 while Aurelia’s Belle went from 75.2/59 to 58/51.
The two prior races before the PLOW, Belle averaged 75 as a final figure while Sistas Stroll was 73. On paper and on the Pucker Up replay, Aurelia’s Belle didn't fire while Sistas Stroll did. Aurelia’s Belle was coming off two-month layoff, while Sistas Stroll entered off a victory four weeks earlier. In either case, we would expect both runners to progress significantly, which makes them viable longshots.
 

The Play: Longshots - Both of these runners are useable for underneath in exactas at double-digit odds.
$500,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup StakesRace 9, Keeneland, Post Time 5:13 PM E.T.1 1/8 miles, turf, 3-year-old fillies

PP

Horse

Jockey

Weight

Trainer

1

Sistas Stroll 

Drayden Van Dyke

121

Tom Proctor

2

Minorette 

Joel Rosario

121

Chad Brown

3

Speed Seeker 

James Graham

121

Joan Scott

4

Aurelia's Belle 

Channing Hill

121

Wayne Catalano

5

Personal Diary 

Corey Nakatani

121

Victoria Oliver

6

Ball Dancing 

Joe Bravo

121

Chad Brown

7

Sea Queen 

Irad Ortiz Jr.

121

Christophe Clement

8

Crown Queen 

John Velazquez

121

Bill Mott

9

Daring Dancer 

Alan Garcia

121

Graham Motion