Questions Surround BC Classic 3-Year-Olds

With the once-powerful older horse division now all but totally depleted, the spotlight in the Nov. 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I) shines on the 3-year-olds, who should be as dominant at the mutuel windows as they look to be on the track.

From the older ranks, we’re basically down to Zivo, Moreno, and Cigar Street from the East and Majestic Harbor, Imperative, and Footbridge from the West, so it is likely the top four favorites in the 1 1/4-mile Classic will be sophomores Shared Belief, California Chrome, Tonalist, and Bayern (not necessarily in that order). 

Another 3-year-old is the intriguing Toast of New York, the UAE Derby (UAE-II) winner who is returning from Europe following his strong second-place finish in the Pacific Classic (gr. I). You can also throw in Candy Boy, who has been chasing either California Chrome or Shared Belief all year, but is always right there in major races and was a solid third in the Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II).

This year’s edition of the Breeders’ Cup Classic is very similar to 2002 when the race was dominated by 3-year-olds Medaglia d'Oro  , War Emblem, Came Home, Perfect Drift, and Harlan's Holiday. Even the only European hope, Hawk Wing, was a 3-year-old. So what happened? The race was won not only by an older horse, Volponi, but he was also the longest-price in the field at 43-1. He galloped by 6 1/2 lengths.

Once again it is the 3-year-olds who will get all the attention, and all bring excellent credentials into the Classic. But they also bring a number of questions and concerns, as did the group in 2002.

Shared Belief’s domination over his opposition ended in the Awesome Again Stakes (gr. I) when he had to overcome being forced five or six wide on the first turn by Victor Espinoza, remaining wide throughout the 1 1/8-mile race. He showed his gameness and resolve by just getting up to defeat the talented Fed Biz by a neck.

The question that surrounds the son of Candy Ride   is not about the final margin, but about his proficiency on dirt. He did win the Los Alamitos Derby (gr. II), but that was on a small Quarter Horse track against Candy Boy, who he had already crushed in last year’s CashCall Futurity (gr. I).

Following the Awesome Again, trainer Jerry Hollendorfer stated bluntly, “He didn’t seem to be getting hold of the track that well.”

That is not a reassuring comment if you're trying to convince yourself the gelding can handle dirt as well as synthetic. To compound matters, Shared Belief was sent back to Golden Gate Fields to train over the Tapeta surface rather than stay at Santa Anita to give his connections a better idea how he’s handling the surface leading up to the Classic. Is there anything to be made of that? When will he return to Santa Anita Park to resume his training? More questions.

Shared Belief is not a big horse, so some also question how much the Awesome Again took out of him, especially never having been tested before. But the bottom line is that this is an extremely talented horse who is still undefeated, and he may have gotten just what he needed out of the Awesome Again, which we must remember is run five weeks before the Classic. It's always good to go into the biggest race of your life having already been battle-tested. One thing is sure—there will not be a shortage of opinions leading up to the Classic.

That brings us to California Chrome, winner of the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I), Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I), and Preakness Stakes (gr. I) back in the days when he was all the rage.

The main question with California Chrome is whether he can rebound off what was an uninspiring performance in the Pennsylvania Derby. In the only five races in which he was stuck down on the inside or between horses he finished out of the money, and jockeys Edgar Prado and especially Javier Castellano were intent on keeping him pinned down on the rail at Parx Racing.

The fact that he was defeated soundly by Bayern, who broke a 40-year-old track record, should not be held against him. But when he finally did get clear sailing after turning for home he appeared to have little left in the tank. Had he finished second or even a decent third, you could see him using this race as a springboard to the Classic, but is there cause for concern that he could do no better than sixth, finishing behind horses like Noble Moon and C J's Awesome?

Did California Chrome, who was nothing special as a 2-year-old, get on an incredible roll for a couple of months and is now tailing off following a 3 1/2-month layoff? Esponoza said after his last work he's better now than he was before the Kentucky Derby...which if true will be up to the bettors to decide. They'll also will have to decide whether the horses California Chrome was beating in April and May were anywhere near the caliber of horses such as Shared Belief, Tonalist, and Bayern. 

Next we come to Tonalist, and all you can say about him is that his three stakes victories—the Peter Pan (gr. II), Belmont Stakes (gr. I), and Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I)—all came at Belmont Park, which is the kind of track a 17-hand colt like him would relish. He was not quite the same horse in the Jim Dandy (gr. II) and Travers Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga Race Course this summer, although he did not run badly, finishing second and third, respectively.

So, is Tonalist a Belmont specialist or can he be just as effective at Santa Anita? Having his blinkers removed in the Gold Cup certainly seemed to help, transforming the colt from a stalker to a stone closer. but perhaps it wasn't the blinkers being taken off at all. It did look like the colt veered to his right at the break, possibly hitting the side of the gate, and then veered to his left before straightening himself out. By then he was next-to-last. Whether he will use those same late-running tactics in the Classic or use the tactical speed he showed before that no one really knows. We know the son of Tapit   is a talented colt. We just don’t know how talented he’ll be at Santa Anita and whether he’ll be close to the pace or far back. That makes him another horse who is difficult to handicap.

Finally, we come to Bayern. The question with him is simple: will he be Bayern the beast or Bayern the bust? We saw the beast in the Haskell Invitational (gr. I) and Pennsylvania Derby when he demolished his opponents in blazing-fast time. In the latter, he broke a 40-year-old track record. And we saw the bust when he failed to threaten after a poor start in the Preakness and stopped to a walk in the Travers over a drying out track he apparently disliked.

In his two starts at Santa Anita he broke his maiden by 3 1/4 lengths in a sharp 1:22 1/5 for seven furlongs and crushed his foes by 15 lengths in a one-mile allowance race, run in a sprightly 1:35 3/5. So, if you chalk up the Preakness to the poor start,  inexperience, and not being ready for such a stiff task, and the Travers to his disdain for the track, then you have to believe he is going relish the surface in the Classic.

But that brings us to the question of whether he wants to go 1 1/4 miles, having never successfully run that far, unlike his fellow 3-year-olds. And can he run that far trying to break free on the lead from the speedy and classy older horse Moreno, who is another need-the-lead type?

The final question concerning the 3-year-olds is about Toast of New York, who looked impressive winning the UAE Derby at Meydan and finishing a clear-cut second to Shared Belief in the Pacific Classic (gr. I). But those races were on a synthetic surface and he is 3-for-5 over synthetic with two seconds, and has never run on dirt before. If he can handle dirt, who knows what we can expect from him in the Classic. But let’s also remember that this will be his third trip to America in four months, as well as having traveled to Dubai earlier in the year.

So, as strong as the 3-year-olds look in the Classic, do we really know what to expect from any of them? If you’re totally confused, you can always start looking for another Volpini.