Breaking the Bank: Overlays and a Tough Challenge

Breaking the Bank - featuring data courtesy of Equibase - highlights the biggest scores of the past week in racing. (Santa Anita Park photo by Eclipse Sportswire) 
There is, perhaps, no more difficult challenge in handicapping that predicting in order the top five finishers in a race.
Picking a winner is tough enough, but trying to select the fourth- and fifth-place finishers in a 12-horse field is incredibly challenging.
How does a better chose between a pacesetter who probably will be running out of steam trying to hold on and a deep closer slowly making his/her way past tiring rivals? Looking at the Super High Five on Oct. 10 at Retama Park makes me understand why so many gamblers prefer string together winners in multi-race wagers to trying to identify horses that might fill out the top five spots.
This jackpot wager, which builds through carryovers when nobody correctly selects the top five in order, is almost always held on the last race on the card as was the case at Retama. The reported payout for the Super High Five was $219,394.60 for a $1 wager, but with much less than that in the pot we can deduce that the winning ticket was for the 10-cent minimum and returned $21,939.46.
Perfect Rate finished first at 5.50-to-1 with 2-to-1 second betting choice Deceptive Ad taking second. From there, things got really interesting.
Josey Move finished another 9 ¾ length back in third, three-quarters of a length in front of 69.30-to-1 longshot Famous I D. Valid Rockette closed for fifth at 13.80-to-1 odds.
The payout got a significant boost from 6-to-5 favorite Whiskey Eyes fading to seventh, and the degree of difficulty increased when the fourth- through seventh-place finishers were separated by a neck each. The better who took down this Super High Five earned his $21,939.46 reward.
(BLOG CONTINUED BELOW TABLE)
Top Payout for the Week Ended Oct. 12

Wager
 Wager Amount 
 Payoff 
Track
Date
Race#

Win
 $2.00
 $196.00
GPW
10/10/14
8

Place
 $2.00
 $75.80
GPW
10/10/14
8

Show
 $2.00
 $30.60
LRL
10/9/14
1

Exacta
 $1.00
 $196.70
SA
10/12/14
7

Exacta
 $2.00
 $1,619.60
TDN
10/11/14
7

Quinella
 $2.00
 $50.00
BEL
10/8/14
2

Trifecta
 $1.00
 $1,892.40
SA
10/11/14
7

Trifecta
 $2.00
 $30,081.00
LRL
10/8/14
3

Superfecta
 $0.10
 $1,665.49
TDN
10/12/14
8

Superfecta
 $0.50
 $12,074.95
MNR
10/11/14
4

Superfecta
 $1.00
 $54,138.50
LRL
10/8/14
7

Superfecta
 $2.00
 $172,286.60
BTP
10/11/14
8

Daily Double
 $1.00
 $42.30
DEL
10/11/14
5

Daily Double
 $2.00
 $3,118.00
SA
10/12/14
7

Pick 3
 $0.50
 $874.75
BTP
10/12/14
8

Pick 3
 $1.00
 $34,914.80
SA
10/12/14
8

Pick 3
 $2.00
 $3,999.80
KEE
10/11/14
8

Pick 4
 $0.50
 $39,673.30
SA
10/12/14
9

Pick 4
 $1.00
 $33,955.70
WO
10/10/14
9

Pick 4
 $2.00
 $25,752.20
PEN
10/10/14
4

Pick 5
 $0.25
 $1,040.58
PM
10/12/14
11

Pick 5
 $0.50
 $26,587.30
KEE
10/11/14
10

Pick 5
 $1.00
 $7,734.60
HAW
10/10/14
5

Pick 5
 $2.00
 $51,492.60
HAW
10/11/14
5

Pick 5 Jackpot
 $0.20
 $14,051.32
LRL
10/9/14
9

Pick 6
 $0.20
 $14,964.20
FNO
10/10/14
10

Pick 6
 $1.00
 $1,771.10
IND
10/8/14
8

Pick 6
 $2.00
 $45,175.60
PRX
10/6/14
8

Pick 6 Jackpot
 $0.10
 $3,188.82
MED
10/10/14
6

Super High Five
 $0.20
 $1,216.96
FNO
10/11/14
10

Super High Five
 $1.00
 $219,394.60
RET
10/10/14
9

Super High Five
 $2.00
 $3,272.20
MNR
10/6/14
8

Click here for a complete list of racetracks with abbreviations.

© 2014 Equibase Company LLC, all rights reserved. Data provided or compiled by Equibase Company LLC generally is accurate, but occasionally errors and omissions occur as a result of incorrect data received by others, mistakes in processing and other causes. Equibase Company LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors, but would appreciate their being called to their attention.  

Let’s shift next to multi-race wagers and focus on a pair of races on Oct. 12 at Santa Anita Park that helped lead to the top payouts for the week for a $2 Daily Double, $1 Pick 3 and 50-cent Pick 4.
Races 6-7 on this Sunday card at Santa Anita produced back-to-back longshot winners that led to plenty of crooked numbers on the toteboard. Cacica Dulima rallied to take the sixth race by a length over favored See Through at 53.10-to-1 odds, the highest odds in the 11-horse field.
Cacica Dulima was unplaced in four previous races, but in her previous two starts she did not run poorly. In fact, it was probably the long layoff of nearly nine months that scared away many bettors.
Cacica Dulima entered off a fifth-place finish back in January in which she was beaten by 4 ¾ lengths at Santa Anita going a mile on the turf. The race prior to that, Cacica Dulima was fifth by 3 ½ lengths on the all-weather surface at Hollywood Park. Trying the downhill turf course at Santa Anita for the first time, the 3-year-old filly visited the winner’s circle for the first time and returned $108.20 for a $2 win bet.
With one bomb already in the books, Hennythelovepenny coasted to a 6 ½-length romp in the next race at 28.70-to-1 odds.
On most occasions for this blog, when I take a look at the past performances of big longshots it is easy to see why the betting public went in another direction. Hennythelovepenny should not have gone off at those odds.
She entered off a runner-up finish as the favorite in a nice maiden-claiming race for 2-year-old fillies at Del Mar, where she took the lead in the stretch but could not hold off a rival who rallied from last to first. She was stretching out from 5 ½ furlongs to 7 furlongs and moving up in class to a maiden special weight race on Oct. 12, but clearly trainer Peter Miller had confidence in a filly who was favored in her two previous starts and he was rewarded. So, too, were betters who did not jump off her bandwagon.
The Cacica Dulima-Hennythelovepenny double returned a $3,118.00 payday to a handful of lucky bettors and also keyed a $34,914.80 Pick 3 that closed with Little Jerry taking Race 8 at 8.50-to-1 odds.
With $2 win tickets of $108.20, $59.40 and $19 to start the Pick 4, even 3-to-1 second choice Matzoh Ball Magic rolling in the final race didn’t spoil a return of $39,673.30 for a 50-cent winning ticket. Nothing like back-to-back bombs in the middle of a card to ignite a sequence of massive payouts, especially when you can make a case that both horses clearly were overlays.
Click here for Equibase charts from the Oct. 12 card at Santa Anita Park
So, is it easier to identify a 69.30-to-1 outsider capable of finishing fourth at Retama or a 53.10-to-1 victor at Santa Anita? That’s for each individual bettor to decide, but there’s no denying the reward that comes with identifying a live longshot.

Commonly Used Gambling Terms

Account wagering – Betting by internet or phone, in which a bettor must open an account and deposit money with which to bet.
Across the board – A bet on a horse to win, place and show. If the horse wins, the player collects three ways; if second, two ways; and if third, one way, losing the win and place bets. Actually, three bets.
Bounce – An especially poor performance on the heels of an especially good one.
Box – A betting term denoting a combination bet whereby all possible numeric combinations are covered for certain horses.
Bridge jumper – A person who wagers large amounts of money, usually on short- priced horses to show, hoping to realize a small but almost certain profit. The term comes from the structure those bettors may seek if they lose the bet.
Chalk – Betting favorite in a race.
Chalk player – Gambler who wagers on favorites.
Daily Double (or Double) – Type of bet calling for the selection of winners of two consecutive races.
Exacta – A wager in which the first two finishers in a race, in exact order of finish, must be picked.
Exacta box – A wager in which all possible combinations using a given number of horses are selected.
Exotic (bet) – Any bet other than win, place, or show that requires multiple combinations. Examples of exotic wagers are trifecta, Pick 6, Pick 4.
Handle – Amount of money wagered in the pari-mutuel system on a race, full day of races, or entire racing season at a track.
In the money – A horse that finishes first, second or third.
Key horse – A single horse used in multiple combinations in an exotic bet.
Morning line – The starting odds set by the track handicapper.
On the board – Finishing among the first three.
On the nose – Betting a horse to win only.
Overlay – A horse whose odds are greater than its potential to win.
Pari-mutuel – System of wagering where all the money is returned to the bettors after deduction of track and state percentages.
Parlay – A multi-race bet in which all winnings are subsequently wagered on a succeeding race.
Part wheel – Using a key horse or horses in different, but not all possible, exotic wagering combinations.
Pick (6 or other number) – A type of multi-race bet in which the winners of all the included races must be selected. Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5, Pick 6 are commonly used by tracks in the United States.
Place bet – A bet on a horse to finish first or second.
Quinella - Bet in which the first two finishers must be picked in either order.
Show bet – A bet on a horse to finish in the money; third or better.
Speed Figure – A metric that rates a horse’s performance in a race, which is determined by a combination of the horse’s performance and the level of competition he/she competed against.
Trifecta – A bet in which the first three finishers must be selected in exact order.
Trifecta box – A trifecta wager in which all possible combinations using a given number of horses are bet upon.
Underlay – Horse whose odds are more promising than his potential to win.
Win – A bet on a horse to finish first.
Wheel – Betting all possible combinations in an exotic wager using at least one horse as the key.