Proven Sires Dominate Keeneland September Book 1

It seems every year the configuration of the first week of Keeneland's September Yearling Sale changes.

Normally four or three days, the number of horses included in Book 1 (and last year, Book 2, as Book 1 was a short one-day session) have varied dramatically. In fact, the last time the first week had a four-day Book 1 with similar numbers to this year's 989 cataloged was in 2013, when 875 yearlings were scheduled to go through the ring over four days.

The following year, the four-day catalog shrunk to 762. In 2015 there were 724 cataloged, and in 2016 Book 1 was just three days with 607 cataloged.

Last year Keeneland experimented with the one-day Book 1 on Monday, followed by a three-day Book 2; the total for the week was a whopping 1,202 cataloged, of which 681 sold (56.7%) for an impressive gross of $196,645,000 and average of $288,759.

In 2013, 546 yearlings sold in the first week for an average of $280,925. From 2014-16 the number sold fell from 473 to 346, though the average was in the $300,000s. 

Last year with 167 set to be sold during the Monday Book 1, followed by 345 a day for Book 2, buyers and consignors alike found that just too many to cope with. Accordingly, this year's sessions have an average of 247 yearling.

The challenge is to balance a manageable number while keeping the class level as high as possible. With 18% fewer cataloged this year than last, the 2017 week 1 average of $288,759 will probably be easier to match than last year's $196 million first-week gross.

This year 4,538 yearlings are cataloged in six books over 13 days, which is 399 (9%) more than last year. With a drop of over 200 from last year's first four days, this means 3,549 yearlings are slated to be sold after Book 1, compared to 2,937 after Book 2 last year. That's an increase of 612 yearlings (21%) in the second week, which raises concerns about the clearance rate.

With nearly 1,000 yearlings cataloged in Book 1, only 72 sires are represented; and, in fact, just 20 sires, each with 20 or more cataloged, account for 693 yearlings—70% of Book 1. Moreover, 17 of the 20 are sires with 5-year-olds or older, meaning there isn't a tremendous amount of room—just under 400 slots for younger sires in the first week.

Two of those are the top first-crop sires American Pharoah  (Ashford Stud, 66 in Book 1) and Honor Code  (Lane's End Farm, 41). The other is Declaration of War  (Ashford Stud, 23), whose first 3-year-olds this year include French Classic winner Olmedo. 

American Pharoah is second by number cataloged in Book 1 only to another Ashford sire, Uncle Mo , who has 67 in Book 1. Besides Honor Code, three other sires have more than 40 in Book 1: Darley's Medaglia d'Oro  (48); Gainesway's three-time champion sire, Tapit  (44); and Hill 'n' Dale Farm's Curlin  (41). Spendthrift Farm's Into Mischief  has 39; WinStar Farm's Pioneerof the Nile  has 38; and Claiborne Farm's War Front  has 33. It's a power-packed lineup.

Of the 400 total Book 1 yearlings from the four crops of sires with first foals of 2014 and younger, about half are by 15 first-crop sires represented in Book 1. After American Pharoah's 66 and Honor Code's 41, two other Lane's End first-crop sires have double-digit representation in Book 1—Liam's Map  (19) and Tonalist  (12).

WinStar's Carpe Diem  has 15 and Constitution  has nine. Three Chimneys Farm's Palace Malice  (5), Claiborne's Lea  (4), and Gainesway's Karakontie  (3) round out the group with three or more in Book 1.

Among sires with their first 2-year-olds (F2016), Three Chimneys' Will Take Charge  (17) and Airdrie Stud's Cairo Prince  (14) have the highest representation in Book 1, while Ashford's Verrazano  has six. Of those with their first 3-year-olds (F2015), Hill 'n' Dale's Violence  has four; Darley's Animal Kingdom  and Claiborne's Orb  each have three. Lane's End's Union Rags  (12) and WinStar's Bodemeister  (6) have the highest representation among sires with their first 4-year-olds (F2014). 

Younger sires are very much to the fore in the nine remaining sessions after Book 1. There are no fewer than 28 sires with 40 or more yearlings cataloged after Book 1, and 20 of those 28 are from the same four youngest groups of sires.

Not surprisingly, nine of the 20 are first-crop yearling sires (F2017). In order of the total number cataloged in Books 2-6, these are: Constitution (60); Palace Malice (58); Carpe Diem (57); Darby Dan Farm's Tapiture  (49); Airdrie's Summer Front  (48); Ashford's Competitive Edge  (45); Hill 'n' Dale's Bayern  (44); Liam's Map (43); and Karakontie (43). And that's just those with 40; then there are Tonalist (38), WinStar's pair of Daredevil  (37) and Commissioner  (36); and so on.

Three sires with their first 2-year-olds (F2016) have 40 or more cataloged in Books 2-6: Ashford's Verrazano actually has the most, with 60; Will Take Charge has 44 in Books 2-6, and Spendthrift's Goldencents , North America's leading freshman sire as of Aug. 27, has 40 cataloged. Cairo Prince, second on the freshman sire list, is next among this group, with 37.

Five sires with their first 3-year-olds (F2015) have 40 or more in Books 2-6. Darley's Animal Kingdom has 47; WinStar's Paynter  46; Ashford's Shanghai Bobby  45; Claiborne's Orb 42; and Hill 'n' Dale's Violence has 40. Ashford's Declaration of War and Calumet's Oxbow  have 38 each. Three sires with their first 4-year-olds (F2014) make the list: WinStar's Bodemeister (53), and a pair of Lane's End stallions, The Factor  (on loan to Japan, 45) and Union Rags (41).

Lane's End also has the sire with the highest number of yearlings cataloged in Books 2-6, F2013 Twirling Candy  (61). Also with 50+ in Books 2-6 are F2007 Kitten's Joy  (57); and F2012 Super Saver  and Munnings  (50 each). Into Mischief, who has 39 in Book 1, has another 48 in Books 2-6. It's a good thing people really like him; and these were sired on a $45,000 stud fee.

In fact, when we add it all up, Into Mischief's 87 Keeneland September yearlings rank him second in number of yearlings cataloged only to Uncle Mo, who has 67 in Book 1 and 38 in Books 2-6. American Pharoah has a total of 81, of which 66 are in Book 1. Kitten's Joy (19 and 57) and Carpe Diem (15 and 57) come next. No fewer than 51 different sires have 40 or more Keeneland September yearlings. That's a whole lot of yearlings, and they weren't cheap to produce, either.

INTO MISCHIEF, GALILEO TOP 2018 SIRES OF ABC, A RUNNERS

APEX sire ratings, which were developed by my team at Racing Update nearly 30 years ago, calculate the frequency with which stallions sire runners that rate in the top 2% (A Runners) and top 8% (ABC Runners) by earnings of all runners in five jurisdictions (North America, Britain/Ireland, France, Germany, Japan) and three regions (North America, Europe, Japan).

In order to calculate figures at the mid-year point (July 8 this year), The Jockey Club Information Systems provides information on 2018 earnings to that point of the year. In certain cases, horses who are A Runners at mid-year ($88,438+ in North America through July 8) will end up as B or C Runners at year-end; nonetheless, looking at the mid-year figures can be illuminating. These numbers pertain to 2018 only and count how many A Runners and ABC Runners each stallion has sired to that point in the year. 

We refer to ABC Runners as 'break-even or better' racehorses. These horses should at least pay their way on the racecourse, and of course, the better they are, the more they make up for the inevitable unfortunates who do not pay their way.

Into Mischief is in some ways a difficult stallion to gauge, because his first four crops averaged just 35 foals each, and his first big crop are now 4-year-olds. In spite of that statistical anomaly, Into Mischief has achieved yet another spectacular feat as the leading North American or European sire of 2018 ABC Runners, with 47, topping even Tapit  (45).

Six other North American/European sires had 30 or more 2018 ABC Runners through July 8: Quality Road  (37); Dubawi (33); Galileo (32); Scat Daddy (31); and Candy Ride  and War Front (30 each).

Of his 47 ABC Runners, Into Mischief's 16 A Runners this year are good for second spot behind none other than Galileo, who had 23 A Runners already through July 8. Since ABC Runners are 8% of runners, and A Runners are 2%, it figures that the normal ratio of ABC Runners to A Runners is 4:1.

Galileo's ratio is 1.4:1, which is pretty much unheard of. After Galileo and Into Mischief come Tapit (14), Scat Daddy, and Darley's Street Sense  (13).

Dubawi and Curlin have 12 A Runners each in 2018, while Quality Road, Candy Ride, and the resurgent Blame  have 11 each. Frankel, with only his first 4-year-olds, Speightstown , and More Than Ready  have 10 each.

Frankel's 10 A Runners and 26 ABC Runners is miles clear of all other F2014 sires, with their first 4-year-olds this year, in both categories. The Factor, who stood this season in Japan but is looking a little underrated now, is the top North American F2014 sire, and second to Frankel by 2018 ABC Runners with 20. Bodemeister is right behind him with 19. Union Rags (14) and Creative Cause (13) round out the top five.

In terms of 2018 A Runners, four North American sires fill the next four places behind Frankel (10): Creative Cause  has 6 A Runners this year; The Factor, Bodemeister, and Stay Thirsty , who exited Kentucky for California, have five each.

Among sires with their first 3-year-olds (F2015), Coolmore's Camelot tops the list with 16 ABC Runners through July 8, followed by WinStar's Paynter (12) and Spendthrift's Jimmy Creed  (10).

Declaration of War has nine, which ties him with Pin Oak Stud's real surprise package, Alternation . His four-race win streak as a 4-year-old in 2012 included the Oaklawn Park series of the Essex Handicap, Razorback Handicap (G3), and Oaklawn Handicap (G2), followed by a win in the Pimlico Special Stakes (G3). He and Jimmy Creed, who won the Malibu Stakes (G1), are both sons of Distorted Humor .

As far as 2018 A Runners of F2015 sires go, Camelot is tied with Cheveley Park/Haras du Quesnay's Intello, who's really come to the fore with his first 3-year-olds, with five A Runners each this year. Jimmy Creed has four, while Declaration of War and Alternation have three each,

For more about APEX sire ratings, and to see the ratings for 753 sires in North America, Europe, and Japan, please visit www.billoppenheim.com/Apex.