Your Pigskins and Ponies Picks for Oct. 16-19

Welcome to ABR’s Pigskins and Ponies column, where winners play!
Horse racing is my means to an end, and I love the sport like no other, but I admit it, like most of you on a Sunday afternoon in the fall, it’s hard to pull me away from my couch … and NFL RedZone.
I have a wanted sign in Vegas and am feared by fantasy football mavens nationwide, but when it comes to the college game, I chose to punt.
That’s where Derek Cooley comes in. The dude is a loaded gun of university knowledge.
Let’s kick off the football, spring the horses from the gate and pad our bankrolls!
Pro Pigskins – by Joe Kristufek
In racing, sometimes the horse you bet scratches and you get a refund. It happened to us twice last weekend. I wish a couple of my NFL plays would have scratched, but no such luck.
The Atlanta Falcons didn’t hold up their end of the offensive bargain against the Chicago Bears, and the total stayed “under”.
Not only did the World Champion Seattle Seahawks not cover against the upstart Cowboys, they lost the game outright, at home. I didn’t see that coming … at all.
When the longshot Oakland Raiders scored on a field-long pass play just minutes into their game with the San Diego Chargers, it was apparent the “under” play was in big trouble. That ticket was in the receptacle early in the second half.
In any form of investing, win or lose, you must learn from the results and process the information in an unbiased fashion.
Pro Football Trifecta
Last week: 0-3 (.000); Season Total: 8-10 (.444)
Sunday, Oct. 19
Chicago Bears (-3) vs. Miami Dolphins (1 p.m. ET)
The Bears played their most complete game in recent memory last week in Atlanta. Can they do it again at home, where they are winless from two starts this year? They should. The offense as a whole is as healthy as they’ve been all season and their run/pass balance is clicking. The defense, including a fresh trio of linebackers, pointed the arrow upward. The Dolphins are a decent team, but they’re much better at home, where the heat aids their tempo.
Kansas City Chiefs (+ 4½) @ San Diego Chargers (4:05 p.m. ET)
The Chiefs recent four-game stretch is actually quite impressive. Big wins over the Dolphins and New England Patriots sandwiched between close losses to the Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers. They return fresh and desperate off the bye week. Andy Reid and company realize that 3-3 is much better than 2-4. The one-loss Chargers were all out to defeat a winless Raiders team last week. They’re good, but are they 5-1 good? Probably not. 
THE CHARGERS COULD BE SEEING RED

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Oakland Raiders (+ 3 ½) vs. Arizona Cardinals (4:25 p.m. ET)
The Cardinals are 4-1. The Raiders are 0-5. The line opened up Cardinals - 4, but Raider action has lowered it to 3 ½. Why is that? Sometimes it’s better not to ask questions and just follow the “smart” money. The Raiders played well last week, nearly outlasting the Chargers. The Cardinals are good, but are they 5-1 good? Probably not. 
College Pigskins – by Derek Cooley
Let’s briefly take a look at our plays from a week ago.
We got a push!  
Maybe that’s a sign that things are turning around!  Or we are reaching for signs … either way, we move ahead. 
A couple of teams played uninspired second halves (Michigan St., Wisconsin) to lose a cover, and some teams played uninspired first and second halves (teams playing teams from Mississippi). And, to be fair, Georgia came out of nowhere with the huge “W” without Todd Gurley. What’s funny is I probably would have gone the other way had the Gurley news broke before making my picks. But that’s college football for you.
College Football Spot Plays Week Seven
Let’s just do this ...
Oregon State (+2.5) vs. #20 Utah (Thursday, 10 p.m. ET, PAC12 Network)
Even though both teams are coming off bye weeks, weird things happen on Thursday nights.
#3 Ole Miss (-16) vs. Tennessee  (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Good Bo Wallace is here to stay after posting a huge “W” in College Station last week.
Arkansas (+3.5) vs. #10 Georgia (4 p.m. ET, SEC Network)
Coach Bret Bielema has been so close to that first SEC victory. It happens in grand style this week with the ability to control the tempo with their run game.
#11 Oklahoma (-7.5) vs. #14 Kansas State (noon ET, ESPN)
Every week is independent this year. Oklahoma is the superior team and should win by double digits.
EXPECT HAPPY FACES IN OKLAHOMA

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#12 TCU (-9) vs. #15 Oklahoma State (4 p.m. ET, FOX Sports 1)
Not a good time to be playing TCU in Ft. Worth. The Horned Frogs notice that 3-0 Big 12 record for Oklahoma State, and they are angry as hell. 
Northwestern (+6.5) vs. #19 Nebraska (7:30 p.m. ET, BTN)
Night game at home, Pat Fitzgerald and the Wildcats will keep this close throughout.
#17 Arizona State (+3) vs. #23 Stanford (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
A rested Sun Devil squad has had ample time to figure out how their high-powered offense will score against that Stanford defense.
Purdue (+12.5) @ Minnesota (noon ET, BTN)
Austin Allenby, the new starting QB at Purdue, could be something special in the future. 
#2 Florida State (-12) vs. #5 Notre Dame (8:00pm ET, ABC)
This is Notre Dame’s first TRUE road game. Good luck Irish, you will need it.
Last week: 3-5-1 (.375); Season Total: 11-17-1 (.393)  
Ponies – by Joe Kristufek
Two of last week’s three selections scratched, the other one, Speed Seaker, ran last of seven in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes at Keeneland Race Course, but she took a bad step on a boggy turf course, so keep tabs on her for next time. The price will be right.
Last week: 1-0-0-0 ($2 WPS * $6 wagered * $0 returned)
Season Total: 16-6-2-0 ($2 WPS * $96 wagered * $107.70 returned = $6.73 ROI)
Saturday, Oct. 18
Keeneland Race Course – Lexington, Ky.
Race 9 – $250,000 Raven Run Stakes (Grade 2)
#6 Divided Attention (morning-line odds, 6-1)
This regally bred 3-year-old filly showed some promise as a juvenile but her season debut was put on hold until August, and it looks like patience may pay off in a big way for her connections. She was visually impressive in a return romp, disposing of fellow Raven Run combatant Shayjolie in the process, and that filly return to score a sharp win of her own. She takes a logical step into this graded stakes and has my UN-Divided Attention. 
Belmont Park – Elmont, N.Y.
Race 2 – $250,000 Sleepy Hollow Stakes
#2 Ostrolenka (morning-line odds, 9-5)
When a New York-bred earns a 90 Beyer Speed Figure, in hand, it’s worth noticing. Instead of getting overly ambitious, which he can afford not to do given the power of the stable, trainer Todd Pletcher opts for a restricted race with a nice pot. The 2-year-old son of Musket Man will be the defined favorite, but the presence of a couple of other bettable horses should keep his price at a playable level.
Belmont Park – Elmont, N.Y.
Race 8 – $300,000 Empire Classic Handicap
#6 So Lonesome (morning-line odds, 5-1)
After racing on grass or Polytrack in six consecutive starts, this 3-year-old son of Awesome Again returned to dirt last time out at Saratoga Race Course. He set a fast pace, but held firm to score and might have found a new home in the process. He’s trained smartly since that race and has performed well on Belmont’s main track in the past.