Signs Point to Strong Keeneland September Sale

With a new format for the second year in a row, Keeneland's September Yearling Sale that begins Sept. 10 is widely anticipated to continue the strength shown during last year's sale that produced record average and median prices.

Keeneland has cataloged 4,538 yearlings for the 13-day sale that concludes Sept. 23 (with no selling Sept. 14), with the total for the world's largest sale representing a 9.6% increase over the 4,138 cataloged during a 12-day auction in 2017.

After an ultra-select Book 1 last year in which 167 horses were cataloged in a one-day session, this year's Book 1 is essentially a combined traditional Books 1 and 2, with 989 cataloged for the Sept. 10-13 period.

Those sessions were scheduled to begin at 11 a.m. ET daily, but the start times for Monday through Thursday were pushed back to 1 p.m. after the ability of buyers to inspect the Book 1 horses was impacted by a deluge of rainfall that began early Sunday and continued throughout the day, with flash flood warnings issued by the National Weather Service.

The unique format for 2017 achieved its stated goal of putting yearlings deemed to be the best up front for buyers shopping at the top end in order to start the sale with momentum.

Keeneland sold 95 yearlings for gross receipts in excess of $54.175 million during last year's Book 1 for an average price of $570,263 and a $500,000 median. Boosted by the strong start, at the end of the 12-day sale Keeneland had sold 2,555 head for more than $307.8 million, with a record average of $120,487 and an all-time-high median of $57,000. The gross, average, and median represented gains of 12.8%, 23.2%, and 42.5%, respectively, from the 13-day sale the previous year.

But the small Book 1 resulted in three subsequently long days of selling, with 1,202 total cataloged for Books 1 and 2 throughout the sale's first four days. That created logistical issues for buyers and sellers trying to show and inspect a large number of horses in a concentrated time frame, leading to the changes for this year.

"First and foremost, we try to be responsive to our customers, and our customers are consignors who prep these horses and bring them to market, and buyers who are traveling from all over the world," said Bob Elliston, Keeneland's vice president of racing and sales. "Last year, there were lines 10-deep to see horses at some consignments. When you pay the kind of money you do at Keeneland September, you want to have time to do your due diligence and evaluate those horses. It's always a balance."

A number of factors portend a positive sale this year, including strong domestic and foreign economies, positive returns at the previous yearling sales this year, and continued tax laws that encourage investments in horses.

Among the 155 graded or group stakes winners of 2018 that went through the September sale ring were Triple Crown winner Justify and four-time grade 1 winner Monomoy Girl. Among the horses cataloged are full or half siblings to such standouts as Justify, classic winner Nyquist , and Horses of the Year California Chrome , Rachel Alexandra, and Gun Runner , as well as superstar multiple champions Songbird and Beholder, among others.

"With the economy the way it is, I think it will be a bull market," said Wayne Sweezey, who with his wife, Cathy, consigns as Timber Town. "I anticipate it being a good sale. I want to think the top of the market hasn't topped out. You will have one or two breakout horses in the $4 million or $5 million range, but the best horses will hang in there around the $1 million to $2 million range, for the most part."

Mark Taylor of Taylor Made Sales Agency said the top of the market should continue to lead the way.

"There is a deeper buying bench at the top than we've ever had," he said. "There are 50 people or groups willing to spend $500,000 or more on a horse. It's good at the top, and that filters down all the way through the sale."

While this year's format gets a thumbs-up from most consignors, some still feel it could use some tweaks and understand that Keeneland is striving to find the proper balance.

"Keeneland has the most difficult job trying to please buyers and sellers and create a venue in which everyone can accomplish what they want to accomplish," Sweezey said. "I understand Keeneland's efforts last year in trying to create a special Book 1, and I understand their efforts this year by combining Book 1 and Book 2. The problem for us as sellers is, I've never wanted to be on the first day of the sale in Book 1. It always takes a little time for buyers to get their engines warmed up. But I think this format is the best thing they could do. I think they are trying their very best to give us the opportunity to sell our horses, and if that means combining Books 1 and 2, I don't have a problem with it."

"It worked in what it was supposed to do, which was to put the big horses in front of the big buyers," Tom VanMeter of VanMeter-Gentry Sales said of the 2017 format. "Where it didn't work was the congregation and jamming back in Book 2, and the foot traffic was unmanageable for buyers. I think it was a foot traffic and barn management nightmare for buyers and for sellers.

"The one problem with the new format is there are probably 150 horses in Book 1 that don't belong there," VanMeter continued. "You have a yearling sired by a new stallion that was well-spotted in Book 2 but is now going up against (yearlings by) Tapit  or War Front  in Book 1. Sometimes in the first week, a group of buyers aren't here yet because they think they can't buy a horse in Book 1. It's always in a state of flux, and Keeneland and consignors are trying to get it right, which is why there is always some tinkering."