Litfin at Large: Kentucky Downs in the Spotlight

In the aftermath of Saratoga and Del Mar, the penultimate Saturday of summer is all about grass racing at Kentucky Downs, which cards all four graded stakes to be run in the U.S., all of which carry grade 3 status and are worth a combined $2.2 million: the Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf, the Kentucky Downs Ladies Sprint, the Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint Presented By Coca-Cola, and the Calumet Farm Kentucky Turf Cup.

Those races are linked in a Pick 4 with a 14% takeout, and for bettors feeling even more adventurous, the $500,000 Kentucky Downs Juvenile Turf Sprint precedes them and kicks off a Pick 5 at the same bettor-friendly rate.

In other news, the New York Racing Association put out a press release advising there is a "cross-country Pick 4" linking two turf allowance races at Belmont Park with the Juvenile Turf Sprint and Ladies Turf. What it does not mention is the takeout of 24%.

Let's focus on the fabulous five at Kentucky Downs, where the sequence (assuming only also-eligibles are out) goes 11x10x10x12x12 and consists of 158,400 possible combinations. Combine that with a 60% chance of scattered thunderstorms, and the degree of difficulty is off the charts. All times Central.

Juvenile Turf Sprint (race 6, 3:55 p.m.): The 11 2-year-olds last ran at eight different tracks in four countries, and two of the three fillies entered—morning-line favorite Moonlight Romance (10) and co-third choice Mae Never No (11)—are trained by Wesley Ward, whose 13 sprint wins at Kentucky Downs the last five years are more than anyone else.

The others we're using are Chattel (2), the only two-time turf winner, who comes off a 22-1 upset score in the Skidmore at Saratoga; Faraway Kitten (3), a Kitten's Joy  colt coming off a debut win on Woodbine's all-weather surface; Mine Inspector (7), who dazzled in his debut on turf before trying dirt in the Ellis Park Juvenile; and the import Life Mission (8), who is still a maiden after two starts, but sheds nine pounds and gets first-time Lasix after running third in a 25-horse field at the Curragh.

A - 2, 10

B - 3, 7, 11

C - 8

Ladies Turf (race 7, 4:26 p.m.): It's tempting to start off the Pick 4 by singling I'm Betty G (1), who comes off three straight wins for trainer Mike Maker. Maker's 24 local route wins the past five years are 17 more than the next-best total.

But she has no discernible edge numers-wise on Storm the Hill (3), Pas de Soucis (6), Hallie Belle (7), In the Lee (8), or Dubara (10).

In the Lee has been away for 10 weeks since edging Pas de Soucis for second in the Perfect Sting, but has run well fresh and has won both previous starts when ridden by Jose Ortiz.

A - 1, 8

B - 3, 6, 7

C - 10

Ladies Sprint (race 8, 4:57 p.m.): Being ever-partial to horses with previous winning form over this European-style layout, the lean is to Lull (6), who won the 2016 Exacta Systems Juvenile Fillies and took this race last year.

The backups are Brielle's Appeal (1), a debut winner over the course 364 days ago; Con Te Partiro (3), who should relish finally cutting back to a sprint; and Ruby Notion (5), who comes off a 27-1 upset of the Caress with Florent Geroux, the top rider at Kentucky Downs with 31 victories from 2013-17.

A - 6

B - 1, 5

C - 3

Turf Sprint (race 9, 5:29 p.m.): The best we can do is whittle this free-for-all to six contenders, including Ward's pair of Undrafted (4), who came up a half-length short in this race last year, and Master Merion (11), who won the Franklin-Simpson decisively on this course a year ago.

Neither one has been out since off-the-board finishes at Royal Ascot. Undrafted tops the lineup with  nearly $1.5 million in earnings, but the 8-year-old is getting a bit long in the tooth, while Master Merion is half that age and still has room for development with a 4-5-1 record through 11 grass starts.

White Flag (7) beat Master Merion by a half-length in a 2017 maiden dash, and trainer Christophe Clement has been sitting on the War Front  colt since he won a high-end optional claimer in July. Last September, White Flag returned from a similar absence to win the Allied Forces, the feature race at Belmont this Saturday.

Any among Conquest Panthera (1), Blind Ambition (5), or Done Deal (12) could prevail in this spot without it being termed a major surprise.

A - 5, 7, 11

B - 1, 4

C - 12

Turf Cup (race 10, 5:59 p.m.): The horse-for-course play involves two runners: Oscar Nominated (6), the defending titlist who also won the Dueling Grounds Derby by better than six lengths in 2016; and Big Bend (12), last year's Dueling Grounds winner. It's worth noting Big Bend's back-to-back wins last year in the Dueling Grounds and the Sycamore (G3T) both came with Drayden Van Dyke aboard, and Del Mar's newly crowned riding champ is back on for the first time since then.

Maker entered three others in addition to Oscar Nominated, and of those, the hard-knocking Bigger Picture (4) appears the most dangerous. His 0-0-0 record from one prior start over the course may be a red herring, as it was a fourth-place finish, beaten less than a length, in the Old Friends two years ago.

Nessy (2) is 15-1 on the morning line, and worth including, as the long-winded winner of the San Juan Capistrano (G3T) has finished a close second to both Oscar Nominated and Big Bend.

Manitoulin (3) may rate the benefit of the doubt coming off a disappointing effort over a very soft turf course in the Bowling Green (G2T). Prior to that, he finished fourth, beaten less than a length, in the Woodford Reserve Manhattan (G1T), a race that spawned three next-out winners of graded stakes, including Arlington Million (G1T) winner Robert Bruce.

A - 6, 12

B - 2, 3, 4