Reexamining the Horse of the Year Race

Tonalist, above winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup, is one of several 3-year-olds who could jump to the front of the pack in the Horse of the Year race with a win in the Breeders' Cup Classic on Nov. 1. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
The Breeders’ Cup may be two weeks away, but one of the leaders in the Horse of the Year chase is already in the clubhouse.
With the sad and disappointing news that reigning two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan has an ankle injury and will have to have to skip the world championships, one set of the “what ifs” has been removed from the quest for racing’s most coveted award.
In terms of Wise Dan’s chances for a hat trick, the injury created a good-news, bad-news situation.
The good news is that it removes the chances of a loss at the Breeders’ Cup and ends his 2014 campaign with a perfect a 4-for-4 mark and three Grade 1 wins.
The bad news is that unlike the last two years, Wise Dan’s Horse of the Year résumé will not be topped by a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.
What that means is that Wise Dan will need some help to add another Horse of the Year trophy to owner Morton Fink’s collection.
Wise Dan’s popularity and the tightness of the race were accurately reflected this week when he edged past Shared Belief to take over the No. 1 spot in the National Thoroughbred Racing Association Poll.
A week earlier, Wise Dan had more first-place votes (24-19) but Shared Belief had more total points (420-413) to cling onto the top spot. This week, Wise Dan had a 24-15 edge in first-place votes and a 379-371 edge in points.
Yet, if Shared Belief, Tonalist (third this week) or California Chrome (fourth) wins the Breeders’ Cup Classic, that should be enough to overcome Wise Dan’s immense popularity and vault them past the gallant gelding in the Horse of the Year voting. Bayern, too, would probably emerge as the best of the best if he wins the Classic, though his sixth-place ranking in the latest poll indicates his wins have not been as compelling as the aforementioned 3-year-olds and he would have the most problem tangling with Wise Dan in the confines of a voting booth.
CLASSIC WOULD BE SHARED BELIEF'S THIRD GRADED STAKES WIN AGAINST OLDER HORSES

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
On the flip side, if there’s a surprise in the Breeders' Cup Classic – let’s say Moreno wins it – then Wise Dan’s unbeaten 2014 record would take on more of a glow.
The X factor remains another grass star, Main Sequence. He’s 3-for-3 this year, all in Grade 1 stakes and was fifth in this week’s poll. Had both he and Wise Dan won at the Breeders’ Cup, it would have been difficult for him to eclipse the two-time champ in the Horse of the Year race. But now, a win in the Breeders’ Cup Turf would give him a better résumé than Wise Dan and could leave him as the last horse standing if the 3-year-olds flop in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Someone other than Wise Dan as America’s top turf star? It surely sounds blasphemous, but for the next two weeks that’s just one of the thoughts to ponder until the horses can hopefully settle the matter themselves at Santa Anita.
MAIN SEQUENCE WINNING UNITED NATIONS

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire