DerbyJackpot’s Best Bets of the Weekend for Oct. 18-19

Keeneland photo by Eclipse Sportswire
America’s Best Racing and DerbyJackpot team up to provide horseplayers with their best bets of the weekend in a regular feature blog that will run on Fridays.
Each week, one of our crack handicappers - Jose Contreras, Dan Tordjman, Victoria Garofalo or Cory Moelis – will provide at least one “Best Bet” of the weekend, ideal for a win bet.
The post also will include some combination of additional bets for the weekend.
For some posts, our handicappers will try to identify a longshot play of the weekend, a nice opportunity to swing for the fences on a win bet or to take a shot with a show bet.
Our handicappers also will look for strong exacta plays for the weekend or occasionally try to spot a nice opportunity to bet a trifecta or superfecta.
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This Weekend’s Bets
Saturday
Best Bet (Win Bet/ Monkey Bet)
Keeneland, Race 9, 5:13 p.m. ET
#2 Thank You Marylou: Early in her career, she showed signs of talent when winning her debut and then running second in a Grade 2 in only her second start. She then exploded when winning a nice stakes race at Gulfstream and received a high Beyer Speed Figure for the victry. After struggling in some Grade 1s, the top of racing, it looks like she may have had some issues in two races this summer. She came back in September looking fresh and sound and won convincingly at Churchill. She is working well and seems to be back in form - I expect a big race.
Exacta Box (Gonzo Bet)
Belmont, Race 8, 4:08 p.m. ET
#2 Sinistra: He enters this spot in the best form of his career. I expect a lot of speed in this race and because of that a very fast pace. Sinistra has a grinder's style which should play well with all the speed. He also is proven at this 1 1/8-mile distance and should get a good trip behind the dueling leaders.
#5 Effinex: He will definitely need to improve to challenge here, but still lightly raced, he has every right to. This deep closer should be aided by the fast pace, and he just raced against probable favorite Sioux - a race in which Effinex was the favorite. He should now be a much bigger price and, if that race comes back live, don't be surprised to see him flying late to get a piece.
#8 Sioux: After a breakout race two back, Sioux came back with an even better performance last time. As an improving 3-year-old, it is fair to expect him to continue to get better and have his best race here. If that happens, he should be tough to beat.
Sunday
Best Bet (Win Bet/ Monkey Bet)
Keeneland, Race 8, 4:42 p.m. ET
#13 Caroline Thomas: She ran a big race last out as the only one to close into a slow pace. She should be an overlay in here given the size of the field, but she has a class and speed figure advantage on this field. She will have to overcome her outside post and what looks to be another slow pace, but I expect her to get up to beat this field.
Longshot Bet (Granny Bet)
Keeneland, Race 7, 4:11 p.m. ET
#4 Major Dude: He came from Mountaineer and got disrespected at the windows last time at Churchill Downs. He proved he belonged with a nice second-place finish. He's always flashed some talent and his numbers fit with this field. In a race like this, he's got just as good a shot as anyone.