BC Classic: How Weak Are the Older Horses?

Let's face it, the older horse division that at one time looked like a sure thing to dominate the Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I), has pretty much fallen apart.

With the defections and/or retirements of Palace Malice, Game On Dude, Will Take Charge  , Lea, Moonshine Mullin, Itsmyluckyday  , and last year's winner Mucho Macho Man  , just like that, the older horse representatives for the Classic were reduced to a group of survivors whose main claim to fame is that they're still around.

What we have left in the East are the winners of the grade I Whitney Stakes (Moreno) and grade II Suburban Handicap (Zivo), both of whom were defeated by 3-year-old Tonalist in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I). And what we have remaining in the West are the winners of the grade I Gold Cup at Santa Anita (14-1 Majestic Harbor) and grade II Charles Town Classic (26-1 Imperative), both of whom were defeated by the 3-year-old Shared Belief in the Awesome Again Stakes (gr. I). In Kentucky, we have the Homecoming Classic winner Cigar Street, who was making his second start off a 17-month layoff when he scored that ungraded victory.

Of course, there are a few others scattered around, such as Prayer For Relief, Stephanoatsee, and Footbridge, but they would have to take major steps forward and run the race of their life just to be competitive.

So, does that mean an older horse cannot win the Classic, with the likes of Shared Belief, California Chrome, Tonalist, V. E. Day, and Bayern in there? Certainly not. We don't know just yet how good these 3-year-olds are, but Breeders' Cup history has shown us that even when the handicap division is weak, it still takes an exceptional 3-year-old to defeat hard-knocking older horses.

In years when 3-year-olds have dominated the Classic going into the race, it took proven sophomores such as Sunday Silence, Curlin  , Tiznow  , A.P. Indy, Unbridled, and Proud Truth to get the job done. Do we have a 3-year-old in that class this year? We very well may, but that is still to be determined. Even good 3-year-olds such as Concern and Cat Thief have managed to win the Classic in years when there were no standouts in the older horse division.

But then again, take a year like 2002 when it looked like a sure thing that a 3-year-old would win the Classic. Travers (gr. I) winner Medaglia d'Oro   went off as the 5-2 favorite, Kentucky Derby (gr. I) and Preakness (gr. I) winner War Emblem was the 4-1 second choice, and Pacific Classic (gr. I) winner Came Home was sent off at 6-1, as was Ballydoyle's Irish invader Hawk Wing. The field also included Kentucky Derby runner-up Perfect Drift and Florida Derby (gr. I) and Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) winner Harlan's Holiday.

So, what happened? The race was won by a 43-1 shot named Volponi, an older horse who not only beat all the 3-year-olds, but did so by 6 1/2 lengths.

When it comes to 3-year-olds, we've seen 1-2 favorite Easy Goer get beat. We've seen even-money Bernardini   get beat. We've seen 6-5 Fusaichi Pegasus   get beat. We've seen 5-2 Medaglia d'Oro get beat. We've seen 9-5 Chief's Crown get beat. And we've seen 7-2 Alysheba get beat.

So is there an older horse who can upset the sophomores this year? Perhaps the unknown quantity is Thomas Coleman's New York-bred Zivo, who rattled off five consecutive victories in state-bred company before blowing his opposition away in the Suburban Handicap, in which he defeated Moreno by three lengths. In the 1 1/8-mile Woodward he came up a little short, finishing a fast closing fourth. In the Jockey Club Gold Cup, he encountered trouble avoiding fallen jockey Rajiv Maragh, but still rallied for second, this time finishing 5 1/4 lengths ahead of Moreno.

"He's doing terrific," trainer Chad Brown said. "He's gotten better and we've given him the time to do so, and it's paying off with him. We're lucky to have a horse like him.

"He looked like a really good New York-bred when we first got him. I wasn't really familiar with his sire (True Direction). He's got sort of an obscure pedigree, but a real nice individual and a nice moving horse. We spotted him cautiously and let him slowly climb the ladder, but we've never run him for a tag.

"He's a horse we always thought had talent, but we never dreamed he'd ever make it to this point when he first started his career. But every time we've asked him to take another step forward he has. We've never gone into a race with him thinking that he didn't have a chance to win.

"In the Woodward there weren't many horses closing on that track that day and he probably was one of the only ones who did, and we were pretty much using that as a prep for the Gold Cup. We decided to skip the Whitney working backwards from the Breeders' Cup. We were thinking 'how can we do it and how can we get him there to the Gold Cup and Breeders' Cup the best way?' And we felt skipping the Whitney and using the Woodward as a prep was the best way."

So perhaps there is an older horse who can knock off the 3-year-olds, and perhaps Zivo is the one who accomplishes that if he handles Santa Anita the way he handles Belmont Park. That is one of many questions surrounding all of this year's Classic horses, which makes the race all the more intriguing.