Breaking the Bank: A Day for Longshot Players at Keeneland

Breaking the Bank - featuring data courtesy of Equibase - highlights the biggest scores of the past week in racing. (Keeneland Race Course photo by Eclipse Sportswire) 
The Oct. 18 card at Keeneland Race Course featured a breakout performance from rising star Taris. Her performance in the Lexus Raven Run Stakes was eye-opening to say the least, but there were some massive numbers that lit up the toteboard that day that perhaps were equally jaw-dropping.
Taris was part of a late 50-cent Pick 5 that returned a whopping $38,272.60. Let’s start digging into that sequence by taking a look at a race that produced the top $2 exacta, trifecta and superfecta payouts of the week.
The Pick 5 we are focusing on spanned from Race 6 through the Race 10 nightcap at Keeneland, and it was Race 7 that really sparked some fireworks.
Sweet Nkosi, winless in 11 starts since June 23, 2014, charged from eighth to edge game, 54.30-to-1 pacesetter Fancita Mae by a half-length in this 5 ½-furlong turf sprint. The double-longshot exacta returned $2,304.40 for a $2 bet.
Zamquick finished third at 3.70-to-1 odds, followed by another bomb in 24.90-to-1 Belle Natalie in fourth. A $2 winning trifecta ticket paid $21,902.40, and the reported payout for the $2 superfecta was $544,576! That more than a half-million reported payout for a $2 wager was misleading, however, as there was only $101,401 total in the superfecta pool for the race. Reduced to the 10-cent minimum bet, the payout was still a massive $27,288.80 to a few lucky winners for a dime bet.
With no wins in more than 15 months, Sweet Nkosi had reason to be overlooked by handicappers, but was there was some reason for optimism?
Most of the 5-year-old A. P. Warrior mare’s career starts had been on the main track, where she had shown some early speed. In four previous turf starts, Sweet Nkosi dropped back and closed from off the pace, which definitely is the preferred running style for the grass at Keeneland. Plus, her best turf effort came on yielding ground at Keeneland last fall, when she finished a fast-closing second by a length. Another positive for Sweet Nkosi was a runner-up finish by a head on June 4 on the main track at Presque Isle Downs in a stakes race. So, while Sweet Nkosi wasn’t winning races, she also wasn’t running poorly. Add in decent form in four previous starts on grass, a strong race on the Keeneland sod and the preferred running style for the course and you have the recipe for an upset.
As for Fancita Mae, she was making her turf debut in this race after showing speed and ability on the main track in eight previous starts that had produced two wins and three runner-up finishes.
The key to Fancita Mae’s previous success, albeit on the main track, was getting to the front early as she showed courage when allowed to dictate the tempo. In her turf debut, she set the pace with 3-to-2 favorite Kiama a close second, but she put that challenger away in the stretch and beat all but one of her 11 opponents to the finish line.
Needless to say, the 37.80-to-1 victress in Race 7 was the key to the 38-grand payout for the Pick 5, but let’s take a quick look at the entire sequence.
Toni’s Hollyday kicked off the Pick 5 with a win by a nose at 9.50-to-1 in Race 6 before Sweet Nkosi shredded the majority of the tickets bet on this sequence. Elnaawi took the eighth race as the tepid 3.80-to-1 favorite followed by the electrifying 9-length romp by 7-to-1 Taris in the $250,000 Raven Run Stakes.
The final leg was won by 2.10-to-1 favorite Taghleeb, so bettors who made it through the first two legs had a solid chance to connect on a massive score.
Click here for the Equibase charts for Oct. 18 at Keeneland
(BLOG CONTINUED BELOW TABLE)
Top Payouts for the Week Ended Oct. 19

Wager
 Wager Amount 
 Payoff 
Track
Date
Race#

Win
 $2.00
 $157.80
MED
10/17/14
1

Place
 $2.00
 $62.10
NP
10/13/14
9

Show
 $2.00
 $29.20
CT
10/15/14
3

Exacta
 $1.00
 $297.50
PM
10/15/14
6

Exacta
 $2.00
 $2,304.40
KEE
10/18/14
7

Quinella
 $1.00
 $24.50
TUP
10/19/14
4

Quinella
 $2.00
 $75.00
BEL
10/19/14
2

Trifecta
 $0.50
 $485.80
DED
10/16/14
9

Trifecta
 $1.00
 $9,131.60
TDN
10/15/14
5

Trifecta
 $2.00
 $21,902.40
KEE
10/18/14
7

Superfecta
 $0.10
 $19,257.97
LRL
10/18/14
5

Superfecta
 $1.00
 $30,199.40
SA
10/17/14
8

Superfecta
 $2.00
 $544,576.00
KEE
10/18/14
7

Daily Double
 $1.00
 $413.00
DED
10/15/14
10

Daily Double
 $2.00
 $1,750.20
MED
10/17/14
2

Pick 3
 $0.50
 $3,166.10
DED
10/16/14
4

Pick 3
 $1.00
 $14,151.40
MED
10/17/14
3

Pick 3
 $2.00
 $32,125.20
KEE
10/18/14
5

Pick 4
 $0.50
 $27,118.40
KEE
10/18/14
5

Pick 4
 $1.00
 $38,913.95
WO
10/13/14
7

Pick 4
 $2.00
 $79,756.00
RP
10/17/14
10

Pick 5
 $0.20
 $219.22
PM
10/19/14
10

Pick 5
 $0.50
 $38,272.60
KEE
10/18/14
10

Pick 5
 $1.00
 $19,293.70
HAW
10/18/14
5

Pick 5
 $2.00
 $50,532.00
BEL
10/13/14
5

Pick 5 Jackpot
 $0.20
 $2,611.22
LRL
10/18/14
10

Pick 6
 $0.20
 $2,510.68
GG
10/19/14
9

Pick 6
 $1.00
 $76.20
TUP
10/19/14
8

Pick 6
 $2.00
 $82,352.80
SA
10/18/14
9

Pick 6 Jackpot
 $0.10
 $620.21
MED
10/17/14
6

Pick 6 Jackpot
 $0.20
 $47,067.85
GPW
10/19/14
10

Super High Five
 $0.50
 $4,769.65
MNR
10/19/14
8

Super High Five
 $1.00
 $11,759.00
SA
10/13/14
9

Super High Five
 $2.00
 $3,784.80
MNR
10/15/14
8

Click here for a complete list of racetracks with abbreviations.

© 2014 Equibase Company LLC, all rights reserved. Data provided or compiled by Equibase Company LLC generally is accurate, but occasionally errors and omissions occur as a result of incorrect data received by others, mistakes in processing and other causes. Equibase Company LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors, but would appreciate their being called to their attention.  

Rather than jump to another track to look at some of the other big payouts of the week, we stay right in Lexington at Keeneland for the same Oct. 18 card. The first half of this spectacular card produced the top $2 Pick 3 payout and the best 50-cent Pick 4 score of the week. The Pick 3 for Races 3-5 returned $32,125.20 and the Pick 4 for Races 2-5 paid a hefty $27,118.40 for the 50-cent minimum.
Race 5, the anchor race for both sequences, provided the key to both bets as Holy Highway struck at 32-to-1 by a neck over 3.20-to-1 favorite Prosecution. Safe to say there were quite a few bettors hoping the outcome would have been flipped with the favorite crossing the finish line first. Instead, a select few horseplayers went home significantly richer.
Nary a favorite prevailed in Races 2-5. Moonshine Promise kicked off the Pick 4 by nosing out 2.20-to-1 Virginia’s Joy for a victory at 5.20-to-1 odds in the second race. Lemon Drop Prize then won Race 3 at 18.60-to-1, closing from eighth for a 2 ¾-length win and an upset that kicked off the $32,125.20 Pick 3.
Sky Flight defeated 2.40-to-1 favorite Cuppa Joe by three-quarters of a length in the fourth before Holy Highway capped both sequences at 32-to-1.
What a day for the longshot players at Keeneland!

Commonly Used Gambling Terms

Account wagering – Betting by internet or phone, in which a bettor must open an account and deposit money with which to bet.
Across the board – A bet on a horse to win, place and show. If the horse wins, the player collects three ways; if second, two ways; and if third, one way, losing the win and place bets. Actually, three bets.
Bounce – An especially poor performance on the heels of an especially good one.
Box – A betting term denoting a combination bet whereby all possible numeric combinations are covered for certain horses.
Bridge jumper – A person who wagers large amounts of money, usually on short- priced horses to show, hoping to realize a small but almost certain profit. The term comes from the structure those bettors may seek if they lose the bet.
Chalk – Betting favorite in a race.
Chalk player – Gambler who wagers on favorites.
Daily Double (or Double) – Type of bet calling for the selection of winners of two consecutive races.
Exacta – A wager in which the first two finishers in a race, in exact order of finish, must be picked.
Exacta box – A wager in which all possible combinations using a given number of horses are selected.
Exotic (bet) – Any bet other than win, place, or show that requires multiple combinations. Examples of exotic wagers are trifecta, Pick 6, Pick 4.
Handle – Amount of money wagered in the pari-mutuel system on a race, full day of races, or entire racing season at a track.
In the money – A horse that finishes first, second or third.
Key horse – A single horse used in multiple combinations in an exotic bet.
Morning line – The starting odds set by the track handicapper.
On the board – Finishing among the first three.
On the nose – Betting a horse to win only.
Overlay – A horse whose odds are greater than its potential to win.
Pari-mutuel – System of wagering where all the money is returned to the bettors after deduction of track and state percentages.
Parlay – A multi-race bet in which all winnings are subsequently wagered on a succeeding race.
Part wheel – Using a key horse or horses in different, but not all possible, exotic wagering combinations.
Pick (6 or other number) – A type of multi-race bet in which the winners of all the included races must be selected. Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5, Pick 6 are commonly used by tracks in the United States.
Place bet – A bet on a horse to finish first or second.
Quinella - Bet in which the first two finishers must be picked in either order.
Show bet – A bet on a horse to finish in the money; third or better.
Speed Figure – A metric that rates a horse’s performance in a race, which is determined by a combination of the horse’s performance and the level of competition he/she competed against.
Trifecta – A bet in which the first three finishers must be selected in exact order.
Trifecta box – A trifecta wager in which all possible combinations using a given number of horses are bet upon.
Underlay – Horse whose odds are more promising than his potential to win.
Win – A bet on a horse to finish first.
Wheel – Betting all possible combinations in an exotic wager using at least one horse as the key.