Handicapping Slate of Big Races Ahead of Breeders' Cup

Five weeks before the main events, Breeders' Cup "regional preps" will be run across the country Sept. 29, including seven Breeders' Cup Challenge Series events at Belmont Park (3) and Santa Anita Park (4), as well as the Lukas Classic (G3) and Ack Ack (G3) at Churchill Downs, which hosts the Breeders' Cup Nov. 2-3.

Three of the races from Santa Anita—the Chandelier, Rodeo Drive and Awesome Again—will be televised live by NBCSN at 7 p.m. ET.

Among the septet of "Win and You're In" races on both coasts, all of which carry grade 1 status, some are more appetizing than others in terms of betability. Let's take a look:

BELMONT

Vosburgh (race 7, 4:09 ET): In notching his fourth graded stakes victory, Imperial Hint (6) thoroughly dominated the Alfred G. Vanderbilt (G1) at Saratoga Race Course. The runner-up in last year's TwinSpires Sprint (G1) has since turned in four straight bullet workouts.

Rather amazingly, four of his six opponents have been claimed anywhere from one to three times in the past few months, with the lone exceptions Mr. Crow (4) and Silver Ride (5).

A - 6

B - none

C - 4, 5

Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (race 8, 4:42 ET): A familiar cast of characters reconvenes, with contenders such as Robert Bruce (1), Hi Happy (2), Sadler's Joy (3), Spring Quality (6) and Channel Maker (8) having taken turns beating each other all through the season.

The new ingredients are Carrick (4), who tries older stakes horses for the first time after a shocking win in the Secretariat (G1) at 38-1, and the European invader Teodoro (IRE) (5), a recent group 3 winner in England who could supply some early pace judging from his comment lines overseas.

After rain at Belmont forced all or some scheduled grass races to the main track for three straight days, the turf will be something other than firm. This could favor Arlington Million (G1) winner Robert Bruce, who was 4 for 4 on non-firm turf in his native Chile before coming to the United States.

A - 1

B - 2, 5

C - 3, 6

Jockey Club Gold Cup (race 10, 5:50 ET): If anything, defending titlist Diversify (6) is more formidable this year, and he has had eight weeks off since running his rivals off their feet in the Whitney (G1). He returns to a surface where he is 6-2-0 from eight starts, has continued to train swiftly, and will deservedly be odds-on.

The key question with Diversify is how much pace pressure he receives from Mendelssohn (3) and Thunder Snow (8), who capitalized on the speed-favoring nature of Meydan's surface for their respective front-running wins in the UAE Derby Sponsored by Saeed & Mohammed Al Naboodah Group (G2) and Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airlines (G1) March 31.

A hotly contested pace would favor Gronkowski (2), who never fired in the Runhappy Travers Presented by NYRA Bets (G1), but ran a solid second in the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G1); and Discreet Lover (7), a rallying third behind Diversify in the Suburban (G2) and Whitney.

A - 6

B - 2, 7

SANTA ANITA

American Pharoah (race 6, 2:38 PT): Five juveniles stretch out to 1 1/16 miles, and it boils down to Game Winner (4), the Bob Baffert-trained winner of the Del Mar Futurity (G1), taking on the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained duo of Rowayton (1) and last-out maiden graduate Gunmetal Gray (2).

Rowayton squandered a lengthy early lead to wind up second best to Game Winner in the seven-furlong Del Mar Futurity, and gets a switch to Florent Geroux as the one to catch from the rail.

Baffert has won this race seven times in its previous iterations as the Norfolk and FrontRunner, and has something to work with here in Game Winner, who has 10-furlong grade 1 winners Candy Ride and A.P. Indy on both sides of his pedigree.

A - 4

B - 1, 2

Chandelier (race 9, 4:07 PT): Bellafina (6) is the 9-5 morning-line favorite after adding blinkers for wins in the Sorrento (G2) and Del Mar Debutante (G1) over three of the fillies she meets here, but the $800,000 Fasig-Tipton Florida Select Juvenile sale graduate is taking the blinkers off, and must now face Der Lu (5), a $900,000 Orb  filly out of the same sale who impressed winning her debut for Baffert at 6 1/2 furlongs.

Brill (4), a $1 million daughter of Medaglia d'Oro , will try to rebound after coming up a flat fourth as the 3-5 favorite in the Del Mar Debutante.

A - 5, 6

B - 4

Rodeo Drive (race 10, 4:41 PT): Cambodia (8) ran a solid third in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1T) last year, and she has beaten four of her seven rivals in this field at least once. But she was out-kicked by Vasilika (6) through deep stretch of the John C. Mabee (G1T) as the 4-5 favorite, and seems a couple lengths below her peak efforts of 2017.

Vasilika was claimed out of her seasonal debut for $40,000, and is entered off six straight victories for Jerry Hollendorfer.

Cambodia and Vasilika are both going 10 furlongs for the first time, and no one in the lineup has won at the distance from 14 collective attempts, lending an aura of uncertainty to the proceedings.

Perhaps this is the right race at the right time for the 3-year-old Paved to take on her elders?

A - 6, 8

B - 1

Awesome Again (race 11, 5:12 PT): Obviously a match race between Accelerate  (6), who is already in the Breeders' Cup Classic by virtue of his win in the TVG Pacific Classic (G1); and West Coast (5), who ran third in last year's Classic and makes his first start since second-place finishes in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) and Dubai World Cup.

Accelerate has won four of five starts this year and has never been better, but West Coast has more on the line in this particular situation, so if I had to put someone on top, it would be him.

Safe to say you can lock up the race by using both.