Tip of the Week: With a Little Help

Effinex wins the 2014 Empire Classic. (NYRA Photo)
There’s nothing wrong with getting some help on the path to the winner’s circle.
Anyone who glanced at the past performances of Effinex in the $300,000 Empire Classic had to believe the 3-year-old was staring at a tough assignment in the mile and an eighth stakes for New York State-breds at Belmont Park.
Previously, Effinex lost by 10 lengths in a Sept. 28 mile-long state-bred allowance race at Belmont while finishing third. Before that, he was second by four lengths in the Albany, a mile and an eighth $250,000 stakes for state-breds at Saratoga. Each time, he tried in vain to close from sixth.
Having the winners of both of those races, Sioux and So Lonesome, only added more gloom to his chances.
Or did it?
Sioux won that Sept. 28 allowance by 9 ¾ lengths while pressing early pace and then taking charge on the final turn.
So Lonesome, meanwhile, went gate-to-wire to wire in the Albany, quickly grabbing a  three-length lead and never looking back.
Now Sioux, who had yet to race beyond a mile, and So Lonesome would be in the same race, perhaps softening each other up for a late closer.
Making Effinex an even more intriguing possibility was that trainer Jimmy Jerkens was putting blinkers on him for the first time and had sharpened his speed for the Empire Classic with a fast 35 3/5 blowout just three days before the race.
The icing on the cake was Effinex’s odds. In the allowance race, he was the 2-1 favorite, and in the Albany he was sent off at 5-1. Now, in the Empire, he was 17-1. At 5-1, the risk might have outweighed the reward. But at more than three times that price, gambling that he would benefit from a more favorable pace scenario and/or  the equipment change was a much more reasonable proposition.
As it turned out, Sioux, the 5-2 favorite, and So Lonesome, the 7-2 third choice, did not race as a tandem in the early stages. Sioux rated a couple of lengths off him in third while So Lonesome set the pace.
Effinex, though, was closer to those two than he was in his previous tries against them.  He was just 3 ½ lengths behind So Lonesome after the opening half-mile, which left him in a perfect position to take aim at the leader in the stretch and beat So Lonesome to the wire by a neck.
In a sense, whether it was the fractions or the new equipment wasn’t the important thing. What mattered most was the $37.20 payoff for believing some help could come in handy for Effinex.
The Lesson: Never assume what happened in a previous race will simply happen again. On occasion, there could be subtle changes in the make-up of a race or a horse’s equipment that can spark a completely different outcome.