First-Crop Weanling Sires to Watch

Stallions that were extraordinary racehorses have the edge in the commercial market when it comes to their results as covering sires.

No surprise, then, to see Darley's Nyquist  and Frosted , Claiborne Farm's Runhappy , and Taylor Made Stallions' California Chrome  lead their sire class a year ago as the only stallions with covering sire averages exceeding $100,000.

Nyquist, by Uncle Mo , is a five-time grade 1 winner and was undefeated when he won the 2016 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1). Frosted won five graded stakes, including the Mohegan Sun Metropolitan Handicap (G1), in which he set a stakes record of 1:32.73 and won by 14 1/4 lengths, the largest margin in the race's history. His final time was just two-fifths of a second off the track record.

Runhappy, a son of 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver , had a remarkable second-half of his 2015 season when he scored consecutive victories in the NYRA.com King's Bishop Stakes (G1), Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes (G3), TwinSpires Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1), and Malibu Stakes (G1). He won seven of 10 career starts and earned $1,496,250.

California Chrome attracted an extraordinary fan following as he campaigned through three seasons that produced two Horse of the Year honors and two additional Eclipse Award champion titles as top 3-year-old colt and older male. The son of Lucky Pulpit won seven grade/group 1 stakes, including the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes (G1), and the Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airlines (G1). He retired with $14,752,650 in earnings.

Expect particular attention to be paid to these sires' first weanlings being offered at Fasig-Tipton's The November Sale (Nov. 4) and the Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale (Nov. 5-16).

A strong covering sire average doesn't always translate into a comparatively strong weanling average, but it does indicate the market's perception of value. If the resulting foals look the part, it can be expected they will command premium prices. Five first-year covering sires of 2016 with averages above $100,000 wound up in the top 10 by weanling average the following year: American Pharoah  (covering sire average of $444,000; weanling average of $416,000), Honor Code  ($166,800; $179,375), Liam's Map  ($156,133; $146,818), Daredevil  ($103,800; $90,300), and Tonalist  ($124,286; $88,500).

Adding book quality to the equation reinforces the likelihood of seeing Nyquist, Frosted, and Runhappy among the leaders by weanling average. Seven among the top 20 first-crop sires ranked by 2017 covering sire average have Comparable Indexes above 2.00, and six of the seven also have a Class Performance Index above 2.00. The CI and CPI are indexes similar to the Average Earning Index in that they are based on average progeny earnings. The CI indicates how good a group of mares is as producers regardless of to whom they're bred, while the CPI indicates how good those mares were as racehorses.

Frosted leads his sire class by both CI and CPI for his 2018 crop of 126 foals. The son of Tapit  has a 2.87 CI and a 3.40 CPI. Nyquist, with 103 foals in his first crop, ranks fourth-highest by CI at 2.69 and is the co-second-highest by CPI with California Chrome at 3.05. Runhappy has 96 foals in his first crop that were produced by mares with a collective 2.30 CI and a 2.86 CPI.

As mentioned previously, the covering sire average is not a consistent future indicator of a sire's weanling average. For example, Carpe Diem , Bayern , and Summer Front  had first-year covering sire averages between $42,000 and $80,000. Their first-crop weanling averages were all above $100,000.

Considering CI and CPI are indicators of quality, sires to watch in November that had covering sire averages below $70,000 but were supported by strong first books include Hill 'n' Dale Farms' Flintshire  (2.86 CI, 2.92 CPI), Ashford Stud's Air Force Blue  (2.73 CI, 2.29 CPI), and WinStar Farm's Exaggerator  (2.32 CI, 2.19 CPI).