Jumping Into Handicapping Saturday's Biggest Races

It's the calm before the Breeders' Cup storm, and the only graded stakes races in North America Saturday, Oct. 20 are the $250,000 Lexus Raven Run (G2) for 3-year-old fillies at Keeneland and the $450,000 Grand National Hurdle Stakes (NSA-G1) from Monmouth at Far Hills, New Jersey.

It is, however, a big day for state-breds, as it is Maryland Million Day at Laurel Park and New York Showcase Day at Belmont Park.

Despite a tote error in last Saturday's "New York, New York" pick four on races at Belmont and Yonkers Raceway, when wagers were refunded after betting windows remained open during the Harry Harvey Invitational Trot, the New York Racing Association will host a "Belmont-Monmouth at Far Hills" pick four that links the Empire Distaff Handicap and the Empire Classic Handicap with the Grand National and the Foxbrook Champion Novice Hurdle.

As you have guessed by now, the 98th edition of the single-day meet at Far Hills will offer pari-mutuel wagering for the first time.

Here are some thoughts to get you started.

Lexus Raven Run (Kee, race 9, 5:30 ET): An overflow field of 16, including two also-eligibles, signed on for this seven-furlong sprint, with Moonshine Memories (9) tabbed as a slight 3-1 favorite over Alter Moon (5).

As a two-time grade 1 winner in a spot where only three others can boast solitary grade 3 triumphs, Moonshine Memories will be a low-priced overlay if she is indeed let go at those odds. The beaten choice in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) exits a tough trip in the Prioress Stakes (G2) when she was pinched back badly at the break and rallied to finish third behind the 5-for-5 Dream Tree and Mia Mischief, who was coming off a heart-breaking neck loss in the Longines Test (G1) and earlier in the season captured the Eight Belles Presented by Kentucky Trailer (G2).

Moonshine Memories picks up Mike Smith and recently signaled her readiness with a bullet five furlongs (best of 57) at Santa Anita Park.

Alter Moon was nosed for third by Kelly's Humor (6) in the Test, which was Alter Moon's first outing since being purchased by Peter M. Brant and transferred to Chad Brown.

Two intriguing 15-1 shots are Blamed (3) and Nootka Sound (14).

Blamed resurfaces for a new trainer, Bill Mott, as she makes her first start since a five-race winning streak in New Mexico, capped by a romp in the Sunland Park Oaks some seven months ago.

Nootka Sound has been sidelined since taking the off-the-turf Soaring Softly (G3) five months ago, but she has never lost (3 for 3) against fillies, and two of those wins came off layoffs for Wesley Ward, beginning with a debut victory at Keeneland in 2017. Not thrilled with the post, obviously.

A - 9

B - 5, 6 

C - 3, 14

Empire Distaff (Bel race 9, 4:48 ET): This race (12 runners) and the Empire Classic (11 runners) are wide-open affairs with plenty of ways to go, which could spell trouble for pick four bettors who are forced to spread in the two steeplechase events.

Among the large handful of contenders here are Hay Field (4) and Frostie Anne (6), a pair of 5-year-old mares who have returned big dividends since being claimed for $25,000 by their respective connections last winter.

Hay Field has compiled a 5-1-0 slate since haltered and fitted with blinkers six starts ago by Jeremiah Englehart, including three gutsy photo-finish scores by margins of a neck or less.

Frostie Anne, plucked from her final start of 2017 by Rudy Rodriguez, has gone 6-1-1 from eight starts this year, with earnings that now exceed nine times her purchase price.

Bonita Bianca (12) ran third in this race last year when trained by Rodriguez, but her three dirt starts for Jason Servis this year have all been sprints. One gets the feeling her recent try in the John Hettinger Stakes at 1 1/8 miles on grass was used to get her legged up for this, and it's worth noting that Servis has other worldly stats going turf to dirt. Again, not thrilled with the post, but there is a long, long run to the turn.

English Soul (7) nosed out Take Charge Aubrey (2) in the Fleet Indian around two turns at Saratoga Race Course, with Split Time (9) another head back in third. With a combined record of seven wins from 15 starts, they take on their elders Saturday.

A - 4, 6

B - 12

C - 2, 7, 9

Empire Classic (Bel, race 10, 5:23 ET): Last year, Twisted Tom (5) completed a 6-for-7 sophomore campaign for Chad Brown with a decisive win in this event over Control Group (3) and Can You Diggit (4), but he showed next to nothing when brought back for two off-the-board finishes this summer, and has since been relocated to Michael Stidham in New Jersey.

Pat On the Back (10) was a wide-trip second to Can You Diggit in the Evan Shipman last time out, and should relish getting back on Big Sandy, where he ran subsequent Suburban (G2) and Whitney (G1) winner Diversify to a nose photo in the Commentator at the spring-summer meet.

Wine Not (7), Sea Foam (8) and Hit It Once More (9) should all be in striking range early.

A - 4, 10

B - 3, 9

C - 7, 8

With the caveat that I can't pretend to have any expertise on the jump races, you're on your own in the Foxbrook Champion Novice, which is set for 3:40 ET. The plan of attack in the Grand National is to buy the race, carving up the field of nine into three As, three Bs and three Cs as follows:

Grand National (FH, race 6, 4:20 ET): With the exception of All the Way Jose (6), these are all foreign-bred horses who have spent most or all of their careers overseas.

All the Way Jose was dismal in the A.P. Smithwick Memorial Handicap (NSA-G1) and the New York Turf Writers Handicap (NSA-G1) at the Spa, but he came within a head of winning this race last year after making all the pace. It's also worth mentioning that his prior start at Far Hills was a three-length win in the 2014 Foxbrook Novice for breeder-trainer Jonathan Sheppard.

The other keys are Hammersly Lake (4), who was fifth in this race last year and has exhibited good form at age 10; and Hinterland (8), second at 33-1 in the Lonesome Glory Handicap (G1) on yielding ground at Belmont.

A - 4, 6, 8

B - 5, 7, 9

C - 1, 2, 3