Collected on Outside Looking in for BC Classic

One of the narratives surrounding this year's $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) is that the field might be the most evenly matched group since, well, the last time the two-day event was held at Churchill Downs seven years ago.

Sure enough, when pre-entries for the World Championships were announced Oct. 24, the interest of contenders emboldened enough to take a crack at the 10-furlong test were such that last year's runner-up was left on the outside looking in.

The Classic was one of 12 Breeders' Cup races oversubscribed at the pre-entry stage, as all races—with the exception of the Juvenile Turf Sprint, which is limited to 12 runners—are allowed a maximum of 14 starters. Should all the preferences hold as expected among the 19 runners pre-entered in the Classic with no defections, grade 1 winner Collected—who ran second to eventual Horse of the Year Gun Runner  in last year's edition—would be excluded from the field.

Record 221 Pre-Entries for 2018 Breeders' Cup

Led by multiple grade 1 winner Accelerate , others with a locked-in qualifying spot for the Classic field include Axelrod, Catholic Boy, Discreet Lover, Lone Sailor, McKinzie, Mendelssohn , Mind Your Biscuits, Pavel, Roaring Lion, Thunder Snow, West Coast , and Yoshida.

City of Light  was also pre-entered in the Classic but has first preference to go in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1), as does graded stakes winner Bravazo, the first horse on the Classic bubble. Assuming those two go to the one-turn, eight-furlong race, that leaves multiple graded stakes winner Gunnevera as the first horse to draw into the body of the field, with grade 1 winner Seeking the Soul the first also-eligible.

Hence, Collected needs another couple of unexpected outs to even have a chance at trying to go one better on his exploits of a year ago.

"I can't believe how many horses pre-entered. I was really hoping to get Collected in there," said trainer Bob Baffert, who will be represented in the race by McKinzie and West Coast. "He's a little late to the party, but he's been doing well, working really well. Hopefully, he can get in there."

New Race Will Get 2018 Breeders' Cup Started

Baffert said the plane Collected is set to be on doesn't leave until Oct. 30 —one day after the post position draw—so he'll know by then whether he needs to bother sending the son of City Zip to the Bluegrass.

"We'll know by then if he runs or not, but right now we're hoping for some movement. We need some movement to get in," Baffert said. "A lot of things can happen in a week. We've seen it with the (Kentucky) Derby where you can be No. 24 (on the qualifying list) and next thing you know you're No. 20. Right now, it's disappointing because the Classic is sort of up for grabs this year. There are good horses in there, but I'd like to have all three in there."

Just how does a horse go from Classic runner-up to outsider in 12 months? Some off-form races combined with the opinion of designated experts, for starters.

Since his Breeders' Cup effort at Del Mar in November, Collected has struggled to regain the same tactical ability that allowed him to win his first four races in 2017, including the $1 Million TVG Pacific Classic Stakes (G1). Owned by Speedway Stable, the 5-year-old chestnut finished seventh in the Jan. 27 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes (G1) and then was given extended time off before resurfacing in the Sept. 22 Pa Derby Champion Stakes, where he finished fourth of five.

Collected's lack of results this year worked against him when put at the mercy of the Breeders' Cup race selection system, which ranks horses in order of preference based on Breeders' Cup Challenge race winners, a point system, and judgment by a panel of racing experts. 

In an oversubscribed field, the winners of the Breeders' Cup Challenge Races in the corresponding Breeders' Cup division have priority. The next horses are ranked at pre-entry based on the total number of American and Canadian graded stakes points they have collected during the year until a total of seven (or six) horses have been ranked based on the Challenge winners and the top graded stakes point earners. All horses need to accumulate a minimum of six points in American/Canadian graded stakes races to be considered for an automatic selection based on points in any Championship race, with the exception of the five juvenile races.

"Right now, we're just thinking Breeders' Cup," Baffert said when asked if he had another race in mind for Collected should he not get into the Classic field. "We're just going to hold out and cross that bridge when we come to it."

The last time the Classic had a full field of 14 came in 2014 when Bayern  won at Santa Anita Park. Oddly enough, Toast of New York, the horse Bayern defeated by a nose that day, is also on the pre-entry list for this year's Classic but ranks behind Collected in terms of drawing into the field.

Entry deadline for the Breeders' Cup World Championships races is Oct. 29 by 10 a.m. (ET). At the time of entry, horses can only be entered into one Breeders' Cup race. There will be up to two also-eligibles for each race, designated in accordance with the Breeders' Cup racing directors/secretaries panel's order of preference for each oversubscribed race at the time of pre-entry.