Inside the Trip: Trakus Breeders’ Cup Preview

This year saw a record number of pre-entries for the Breeders’ Cup World Championships, and an amazingly well-balanced slate of 13 races that will excite and dazzle horseplayers around the world.
Below, we take our annual look at some of the races and horses that generated the most compelling data in advance of the big weekend.
Juvenile / Juvenile Fillies
American Pharoah has been unassailable in his last two starts, going forward and crushing the opposition at both Del Mar and Santa Anita. Take one glance at the field for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and it’s impossible to ignore that there is a load of early speed that American Pharoah will have to deal with, including Carpe Diem, Daredevil, potentially Lucky Player, One Lucky Dane, and Souper Colossal, a winner at both five furlongs and one mile within 28 days back at Monmouth Park in August.
Calculator was four wide on the first turn of the FrontRunner Stakes, tracking American Pharoah from about two lengths behind, and then three wide most of the second turn. As you will note from the chart below, Calculator actually ran marginally faster than American Pharoah, given the extra ground traveled.

Still a maiden, Calculator finished second to American Pharoah in both of his last two races, and was a combined 9 ¾ lengths clear of the third-places horses in the two races. Last time, that was Keith Desormeaux trainee Texas Red, who interestingly matched American Pharoah’s late speed at this track and distance in September. While American Pharoah was relatively geared down late, it was at least encouraging to see Calculator kick on. Now, he’s drawn in gate one and is more likely to get a “reverse trip,” the opposite of his added travel from the FrontRunner.

On the fillies’ side, second in the Darley Alcibiades at Keeneland, Top Decile had the fastest final furlong when bested by the now-injured Peace and War. She traveled essentially the same distance as the winner in the race, going wider than half the field.
Majestic Presence deserves some attention in the Juvenile Fillies after a wide trip throughout the Chandelier Stakes and was never going to catch winner Angela Renee, who saved ground the entire journey. Majestic Presence covered a distance that equates to nearly 7 ¾ lengths more than Angela Renee. This Jerry Hollendorfer trainee could grab a slice, or more, with a trip that requires significantly less ground.
Juvenile Turf / Juvenile Fillies Turf
Hootenanny was identified as a key horse with potential in this blog after his debut at Keeneland Race Course, and those who followed along for his turf debut at Royal Ascot were well-rewarded. In his first start, Hootenanny was close to the early pace going 4 ½ furlongs at Keeneland and appeared to run his final quarter faster than his first quarter (on the now-removed Polytrack).

The looks were supported by the data, and we went in search of any other 4 ½ furlong winners at Keeneland to have been in close attendance to the pace and run faster later than earlier in the race, a relative rarity in such a sprint. Sure enough, three horses qualified, all Wesley Ward trainees, all stakes runners, including the sensational Judy the Beauty, Gypsy Robin, and Holdin Bullets. Over short distances, we know Hootenanny is competent, but what about a mile, around two turns? The accomplishment is there and we saw bright things from the Royal Ascot winner, but it might just be too much for him over the longer trip. It is worth noting that Hootenanny gets Lasix again, the first time he has received it in a race since May.
Both Lawn Ranger and Danny Boy emerge from the Dixiana Bourbon Stakes, where the former got the edge over the latter and sway, but Danny Boy was coming. While this race is a sixteenth of a mile shorter, the pace is very likely to be much stronger. How that impacts either is up for interpretation, but we know that Danny Boy ran the final eighth of a mile 0.14 seconds quicker than Lawn Ranger, and covered nearly 1 ½ lengths more than that rival. 

The Pilgrim Stakes at Belmont was incredibly slow early and the juveniles quickened late, enabling maiden Imperia to get the job done at second-asking. The son of Medaglia d’Oro ran his final quarter in 22.45 seconds and final eighth in 11.37 seconds, times which were 0.66 and 0.37 seconds quicker than the next fastest home, third-placer Offering Plan. Trakus recorded Imperia’s first quarter in just 25.06 seconds.

Run two races before the Pilgrim, Lady Eli’s performance in the Miss Grillo Stakes was incredibly striking. With push-button acceleration, the Chad Brown trainee simply lengthened away from her rivals and won in hand. The pace for the Miss Grillo was even slower than that of the Pilgrim, with Greywalls setting the early tempo through an opening quarter-mile in 25.33 seconds, according to Trakus timing. What did that lead to? A very fast final fraction for Lady Eli. Trakus recorded Lady Eli’s final two furlongs in a slick 21.67 seconds and a final eighth in 10.88. Fourth-place finisher Partisan Politics had the second-fastest final fractions in the race, home in 22.05 and 10.99 seconds. 

Both of these juvenile turf races at Belmont are seemingly outliers given their ridiculously slow early pace. If both Imperia and Lady Eli were to run as slow as they did during the early stages of their races at Belmont, at Santa Anita, they would be much farther behind through the first half of the race. With what seems a very strong pace presence in the Juvenile Turf, and less so in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, both Belmont winners might see late race traffic as their biggest impediment to success in the Breeders’ Cup. We would anticipate both also are probably going to cover extra ground to avoid inside trouble racing from off the early gallop.
Sprint / Filly & Mare Sprint
Our blog after the Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes highlighted the remarkable performance of one of the most interesting foreigners to ship in to race in America in recent years, winner Rich Tapestry. After defeating Breeders’ Cup Sprint and Dirt Mile winners Secret Circle and Goldencents, Rich Tapestry will now face a bulkier group (something he is used to in Hong Kong, for sure) with dirt sprinting credentials.
Putting this individual performance into the proper context is necessary. While the dirt track has changed since last year, and the high heat of that early October Saturday could have had some impact on the speed of the surface, Rich Tapestry absolutely flew home, faster than we have seen in a six-furlong graded stakes.

Since the start of the current Santa Anita meet, at which they debuted a new dirt surface, Rich Tapestry ran the fastest final quarter-mile when coming home in 23.14 seconds, and the fastest final eighth in 11.71 seconds. The second-fastest final quarter was recorded by Santa Anita Sprint Championship second Goldencents (23.28).
We decided to go back even further to see how that matched up to every six-furlong race run at Santa Anita dating to the beginning of the 2012-2013 season, a data set that included more than 2,600 starters. Sure enough, Rich Tapestry still owns the fastest final two furlongs of that group, and the fifth-fastest final furlong from that sample. Four horses have had faster final eighths over that time period, with three of the four having been at least 4 ½ lengths behind the pace after the opening quarter. Rich Tapestry was less than a length behind at that point of call.
Maybe Rich Tapestry’s effort was so strong off the layoff that it could be difficult to back it up a month later, or maybe he’s just that good on the dirt, still unbeaten in two dirt tries in Hong Kong and his lone American foray. Regardless, this type of superlative data is encouraging enough to suggest that the Hong Kong-trained galloper remains an incredibly dangerous entrant in the Sprint.
Winning the Vosburgh for the second consecutive year, Private Zone did it covering more ground than the second- and third-place finishers, going 12 feet more than Dads Caps and 25 feet more than Palace. At the finish, Private Zone’s winning margin over Palace was 1 ¾ lengths but when factoring the extra ground he covered, Private Zone traversed an added three lengths.

In the Filly & Mare Sprint, Judy the Beauty looms a massive danger a year after running second, beaten by a half-length, in this race. Her last race, back in August at Del Mar, was scintillating, running away from Reneesgotzip who probably will be one of the top betting choices in the Turf Sprint. Overall, Judy the Beauty covered more ground than her three rivals, covering 31 feet more than Madame Cactus, a distance that translates to roughly 3 ½ lengths. The final margin between the top two was just more than a length, but her trip and flashy closing splits made the performance even stronger than it looked. Earlier this year, Judy the Beauty covered the widest trip in the Madison Stakes at Keeneland. She does her best running when in the clear, and has a fairly decent draw in gate seven to replicate that successful pattern.
Classic
The data from Shared Belief’s narrow win in the Awesome Again has been much discussed. At the finish, the unbeaten son of Candy Ride covered 66 feet more than Fed Biz. The final margin between the two was just a neck, but that extra ground equates to roughly 7 ¾ lengths.

You shouldn’t need any extra data to recognize that Shared Belief is a major threat in the race. But could someone else from the California-based contenders stake a claim?
Four of the top six from the Pacific Classic are scheduled to return in the Classic, and it’s notable that the first three finishers all endured roughly the same trip from a ground-coverage standpoint, with Shared Belief, Toast of New York, and Imperative all covering essentially the same amount of feet going the 1 ¼ miles on Del Mar’s Polytrack surface. In two lifetime starts on Polytrack, Majestic Harbor has been beaten a combined 20 ¾ lengths. Could Majestic Harbor be bottling a big race for the Classic?
In the Awesome Again, he covered just 15 feet less than Shared Belief when beaten less than four lengths. Shared Belief ran his final furlong in 12.76 seconds while Majestic Harbor came home in a similar time, 12.81 seconds. Take note of the final fractions and stats from the Awesome Again.

Add in the extra furlong of the Classic, and it’s not completely inconceivable that if the currently unbeaten Shared Belief should falter, Majestic Harbor could be doing his best running in the late stages and pick up the pieces. His win in the Gold Cup from June at this track and distance was scintillating, even if it came after a brutal pace was established early. Just 6 ½ lengths behind Fury Kapcori’s opening half that was timed by Trakus in 45.54 seconds, Majestic Harbor still managed to run the fastest final fractions, despite the fact that the second- and third-place finishers were farther off the strong early gallop. Compare the times below.
 
This isn’t designed to suggest that Majestic Harbor is some ridiculously forgotten longshot – his price on race day is going to be deserved considering his recent performances. Still, there have been flashes that could lead you to believe he is well worth including in some fashion. The biggest issue probably is his draw in gate 14. That said, Tyler Baze has shown to be one of the more ground-saving jockeys in the Southern California colony through past studies of the Trakus Jockey Efficiency Ratings (read our ABR piece from last year).

Both Tonalist and Zivo were steadied on several occasions when negotiating a fallen Rajiv Maragh in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, yet rallied to run first and second from well off the pace. Tonalist got his final eighth in 12.29 seconds and Zivo in 12.53. The entire first quarter of the race is run around a turn, often yielding opening sectionals that are much slower than most 1 ¼-mile races exhibit. Tonalist was tracked in 25.43 through the first fraction with Zivo in 25.02. Taking into account for the nature of the course designs, both Tonalist and Zivo are expected to be well off the pace in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and in need of some racing luck to negotiate a clear path from the back. In the replay below, take special note of how much both horses were impacted by the fall, and still rallied to claim the exacta.

California Chrome drawn in 13? No worries? Pretty much.
We talked extensively about Victor Espinoza’s rides on the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner before the Belmont, when sure enough, he drew an inside gate. Here is what we said about the prospects before the Belmont draw:
“Espinoza has one job – get California Chrome in the clear, whether it be on the lead or near it. What other horses race around him and how they treat him after that seems almost unimportant.”
California Chrome’s greatest successes have come when he races completely uncovered in the open. While we can often talk about ground coverage in this blog, here is one perfect example where a horse has done very well when wide, and had questionable performances when saving ground. Read our full ABR blog from June.
Good luck and enjoy the 31st Breeders’ Cup. We can’t wait to see how these wildly competitive races go!