Litfin: Delta Prince Could Reign in Bold Ruler

There are just three graded stakes in North America this pre-Breeders' Cup Saturday (Oct. 27), with the Hagyard Fayette (G2) topping the closing-day card at Keeneland, the Autumn Miss (G3T) for 3-year-old grass fillies the main attraction at Santa Anita Park, and the Bold Ruler Handicap (G3) the last of 18 graded stakes at Belmont Park's fall meet.

Along with the Bold Ruler, the final Saturday program at Belmont also features two hundred-granders scheduled for turf, the Awad for 2-year-olds and the English Channel for 3-year-olds. However, it's a good bet those races will be switched to the main track because a Nor'easter is expected to bring heavy, wind-driven rain.

Here's a look in chronological order.

Bold Ruler (Bel, race 9, 5:08 ET): This marks the first start in 13 months for Coal Front (4), who emerged from a win in the 2017 Gallant Bob (G3) with a condylar fracture of the right foreleg and underwent surgery two days later.

Coal Front, who sustained a similar injury to his left foreleg as an unraced 2-year-old, also won the Amsterdam (G2) last year. It's noteworthy, though, that there were no graded stakes winners behind Coal Front in either the Amsterdam or the Gallant Bob. Now, the talented but lightly raced colt must concede anywhere from three to 10 pounds to his five opponents, and he will almost certainly encounter an off track for the first time while also meeting older stakes horses for the first time.

Despite the uncertainty that surrounds the 7-5 favorite, it's hard to be brimming with confidence about No Dozing (1), True Timber (3) or Petrov (5), who are without a graded stakes victory from 24 combined attempts.

This shapes up as a good spot for Delta Prince (6), a half brother to multiple Eclipse Award winner Royal Delta, who will be going back to dirt for the first time since 2016, when he was in the money twice against maidens—without Lasix—on a wet track at Belmont and on a fast track at Aqueduct Racetrack.

Delta Prince has since won four times on grass, including the King Edward (G2T) in his seasonal debut this year. He followed with a clear second in the Fourstardave (G1T), just a neck off the Spa-loving Voodoo Song, and five weeks later ran a pace-compromised fourth as the favorite in the Ricoh Woodbine Mile (G1T).

Breaking from the outside post with blinkers on, and coming off two bullet workouts, Delta Prince figures to be locked and loaded, and may be close enough to pressure Coal Front early.

A - 6

B - 4

C - 1, 3, 5

Hagyard Fayette (Kee, race 9, 5:30 ET): With a forecast for cloudy skies and only occasional rain showers, the weather shouldn't be a major factor for this 1 1/8-mile route where favoritism seems up for grabs among Prime Attraction (1), Leofric (5) and Hofburg (6).

The California invader Prime Attraction has gone without a win since taking the Native Diver (G3) last November, but since then he has met up with Accelerate  in each of five dirt starts, along with a gutsy pace-setting third in the Eddie Read (G2T) on turf. But he had no apparent mishaps when fourth in the Awesome Again (G1) four weeks ago, and he was beaten almost three lengths for the show spot by Isotherm, a turf horse who has never won on dirt.

Leofric probably gets to control the pace as he runs for the first time since getting nosed out for second in the Woodward Presented by NYRA Bets (G1). The late-blooming son of Candy Ride  has won six of nine starts since transferred to trainer Brad Cox, and has run well fresh repeatedly.

The addition of blinkers for the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) didn't elicit much of a response from Hofburg, who dropped back to trail early and passed only tired horses while very wide to wind up fourth as the second choice. This will be his initial try against older horses, and Keeneland can be a difficult place to make up a lot of ground unless the pace is hot.

A - 5

B - 1, 6

Autumn Miss (SA, race 10, 4:40 PT): Easily the most attractive race from a wagering standpoint, and with a full gate of 14 signed on, the short run to the first turn will make or break many chances.

The pace scenario is quite interesting. An initial pass through the running lines led to the assumption that Ms Bad Behavior (4) might set up shop on a lonely lead as she comes out of a second-place finish as the favorite in the Unzip Me, and repeats a distance stretch-out that produced her first (and only) stakes win.

But then, a closer look at Rayya (11) suggests she may wake up with blinkers on for Bob Baffert and perhaps regain the form she showed in a front-end win in the UAE Oaks Sponsored by Al Naboodah Construction Group (G3). While there is no turf to speak of on either side of her pedigree, it seems likely she will be sent early from post 11 in an attempt to get a decent position.

That could spell trouble for Ms Bad Behavior, but it could benefit any among the trio of fillies sired by the late Scat Daddy in the lineup: Toinette (5), Tesora (6) and West Palm Beach (8).

Take a look and see whether the front wraps are still on Toinette. She did not wear them for two wins in Kentucky during the spring—a half-length allowance score over La Signare, who annexed the Wonder Again (G3T) in her next start; and a win in a loaded edition of the Edgewood (G3T) over several fillies who each came back to win a couple of stakes, among them Rushing Fall, who took the Queen Elizabeth Challenge Cup Presented by Lane's End (G1T) two weeks ago. Notably, Toinette is the only filly ever to beat the 6-for-7 Rushing Fall.

Toinette did wear fronts in her next and last start, two months after the Edgewood, when she was probably closer to the early pace than necessary and faltered through the stretch in the Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1T).

Tesora made progress through the summer, capped by a win in the six-furlong Christiecat, and she shipped to the West Coast successfully to win a one-mile allowance race last fall for Jonathan Thomas, who has saddled a good number of repeat winners.

West Palm Beach is 20-1 on the line, which seems like a very big price for a filly beaten less than three lengths by Ms Bad Behavior in the San Clemente (G2T) when last seen in July. She won her United States and seasonal debut going a mile on this turf course in March, and could get a decent setup assuming some racing luck.

A - 5

B - 4, 6

C - 8, 11, 13