Betting the Distaff on a $20 Budget

Untapable wins the Kentucky Oaks. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
Dollar signs are everywhere this weekend. From the purses being chased by the men and women who own horses running in the Breeders' Cup World Championships to the people betting on the races, the stakes are high.
In the Friday feature, the Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff for fillies and mares, there's a whopping $2-million on the line. For the horseplayers out there, it's also an excellent race to take a shot at padding your bankroll for Saturday.
We're going to try and structure a couple of betting strategies around a handful of horses, narrowed down from a competitive field of 11, who appear to be logical contenders in the Distaff. Each strategy we come up with will be restricted by a betting budget of $20. Let's give it a shot.
Pace projection is one of the toughest things to do when handicapping a race. If running patterns are any indication, three horses will by vying for the lead when the gates open for the Distaff and those horses are Belle Gallantey, Tiz Midnight and Close Hatches. Both Belle Gallantey and Tiz Midnight draw closer to the rail, while the more highly heralded Close Hatches draws the widest post of all and has been able to effectively rate off the pace when necessary in the past.
CLOSE HATCHES WINS THE PERSONAL ENSIGN

Photo by NYRA
While the post situation could logically hurt Close Hatches - if she's marooned out wide chasing a hot pace - it also gives her and jockey Joel Rosario a tactical advantage. The pace on the rail, if pressed early and often, is likely to fold, while Close Hatches should have clear sailing outside of them, as opposed to potentially losing ground while trying to tip out or go around tiring horses late in the race. Of course, Rosario might just gun her from the gate. If she clears the field and is allowed to settle in on a loose lead, she'll be tough to catch. I would say she'd be impossible to catch but not after her head-scratching fourth-place finish last out, when she set a very reasonable pace on the front end and tired in mid-stretch.
Now, to everyone's favorite part of handicapping - finding long shots. There are a few in here who can factor, including L’Amour De Ma Vie, Iotapa and, perhaps most intriguing of all, our speedster Tiz Midnight (10-1 morning line). She broke her maiden at Santa Anita when posting a 102 Beyer Speed Figure back in June. After winning two over the synthetic surface at Del Mar, she returned to Santa Anita with a very game runner-up finish in the Grade 1 Zenyatta Stakes behind last year's Distaff winner and champion filly Beholder. Amazingly, in his long and storied career, trainer Bob Baffert has never won a Breeders' Cup Distaff. Can Tiz Midnight do it? It isn't likely but don't overlook this gritty filly altogether.
TIZ MIDNIGHT

Photo by Benoit Photo
Finally, wemust give serious consideration to the leading contender for champion 3-year-old filly this year, Untapable. The Steve Asmussen-trained filly, owned by Winchell Thoroughreds, has passed just about every test she's been put to in 2014. She swept back to back stakes in Louisiana to start the year, cruised in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, and has added two more Grade 1 wins since. The fact that she's versatile and can sit off a hot pace makes her even more attractive in a Distaff that is likely to feature a lot of action up front. The only red flag is that her lone race over at Santa Anita was a disaster in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies but she had plenty of trip trouble and, hence, valid excuses in that race.
Selections: #10 Untapable, #2 Tiz Midnight, #11 Close Hatches, #1 L'Amour de Ma Vie
$20 Wagering Strategies
Strategy A: $5 exacta 10/1, 2, 7, 11
Strategy B: $1 trifecta 10/ 1, 2, 7, 9, 11/ 1, 2, 7, 9, 11
$2-million Breeders' Cup DistaffFriday, Santa Anita Park, Race 9, 7:35 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, dirt, fillies and mares, 3 years old and older

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Odds

1

L’Amour De Ma Vie

Maxime Guyon

Pia Brandt

15-1

2

Tiz Midnight

Victor Espinoza

Bob Baffert

10-1

3

Iotapa

Joe Talamo

John Sadler

6-1

4

Belle Gallantey

Jose Ortiz

Rudy Rodriguez

6-1

5

Unbridled Forever

John Velazquez

Dallas Stewart

20-1

6

Stanwyck

Corey Nakatani

John Shirreffs

20-1

7

Don’t Tell Sophia

Joe Rocco Jr.

Phil Sims

5-1

8

Valiant Emilia

Rafael Bejarano

Gary Mandella

20-1

9

Ria Antonia

Paco Lopez

Tom Amoss

15-1

10

Untapable

Rosie Napravnik

Steve Asmussen

5-2

11

Close Hatches 

Joel Rosario

Bill Mott

3-1