Predicteform Breeders’ Cup Distaff Analysis

Untapable, above winning the Mother Goose Stakes, appears to be formidable in the Breeders' Cup Distaff, but do other contenders offer better value? Check out Predicteform's analysis to find out. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
We present to you the in-depth analysis of the 2014 Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff, including Pace Figures and Form Cycle Patterns of each starter. Please refer to the Legend or Pattern Guide for back-up definitions and patterns.
The Breeders’ Cup Distaff is run at 1 1/8 miles for fillies and mares, 3 years old and older for a purse of $2mm USD. The Distaff is Race 9 on Friday, Oct. 31 with post time scheduled for 7:35 p.m. ET.
The race will be live on NBC Sports Network as part of their three hours of live coverage from 5-8 p.m. ET (as will the three other BC races scheduled for Friday).
Get your FREE Pace Figures and Past Performances for the Distaff.
L’Amour de Ma Vie (15-1)
Originally sold in the U.S. at the 2011 Keeneland November mixed sale, “The Love of My Life” returns to the U.S. for her first time to race on dirt for her first time against some of the best female routers (horses who excel at distances longer than a mile) in the world. She's raced in four countries (England, France, Italy and United Arab Emirates) and probably has more frequent flier miles than the field combined.
Her dam (mom) Cuaba, was more of a dirt sprinter, and she is the only foal to race from the dam. She drew the rail. Combine that with her dam's sprinting style and you are most likely looking at one of the pacesetters.
The Play: Too many firsts create too much of a risk, even at 20-1 morning-line odds.
Tiz Midnight (10-1)
The most lightly raced horse in the field, Tiz Midnight has seven lifetime starts in her two season of racing. After four starts as a maiden and two allowance wins, she took the big jump into Grade 1 stakes, running a close second to Beholder (the early favorite in the race before she was scratched).
This will be her first start at 1 1/8 miles for West Coast training legend Bob Baffert. Her last four races, which were the best four of her career, all came on the front end. Her 4f pace figure average (via the view basic tab on the pace figures) indicates she averages a 71.8 for 4f, the second highest of the group behind, you guessed it, Close Hatches.
She is the only horse on a Form Cycle Pattern, as she is sitting on a NPT (New Pace Top), which is one of the strongest indicators of future progression. Tiz Midnight is the first foal out of Tough Tiz's Sis, a Grade 1 winner campaigned by the same owners and also trained by Baffert, although she was 0 for 4 at 1 1/8 miles.

The Play: Fringe Contender – Solid Form Cycle line with a New Pace Top and 10-1 morning-line odds make this lightly raced filly very interesting.
Iotapa (6-1)
A multiple Grade 1 winner, Iotapa is 7 for 7 in the money at Santa Anita (the best record for any of the runners), yet she has not been able to compete with the best on the West Coast. Additionally, she has encountered short fields of four and five competitors in her last four starts, and based on her positive races will be forced to go to the lead (as it looks like she doesn't like dirt in her face off the pace). Her final figures have been mostly in the mid 70s, which is not competitive with this group.

The Play: Too Slow – Though would not be surprised to see her go for the lead ensuring an honest pace up front.
Belle Gallantey (6-1)
A new horse since claimed for $35,000 in late December 2013, Belle Gallantey has risen up the ranks to center stage, competing against the best females in the country. After a lackluster 2013, where he won just 1 of 14 races, she has rattled off five wins in seven starts in 2014 for journeyman New York-based trainer Rudy Rodriguez, who has never had a Breeders' Cup starter, including two Grade 1s while earning $851,400.
She has been beaten soundly by Close Hatches in two of her last four starts. Her Pace Figures show a pretty consistent line of 78.5 – 62.2 – 80.5 – 77.5, especially if you flush the 62.2 8/22 effort on the muddy track in upstate New York.

The Play: Longshot – With a trainer, jockey and owner all among the best in New York, she might get overlooked at the betting windows on the West Coast.
Unbridled Forever (20-1)
A hard-trying filly who has been in the money (without winning), in three of four Grade 1 stakes this year, Unbridled Forever faces the toughest field of her career. She has raced twice against Untapable, losing by a combined margin of 20 lengths.
While her last Pace Figure was a competitive 78.4, it was a 10-point top off her prior race and a most likely indication that regression is forthcoming.

The Play: Regressor – Outclassed and very unlikely.
Stanwyck (20-1)
Beaten soundly by at least three competitors in the field, Stanwyck heads back to Santa Anita, where her trainer and owner are stabled. She has been in the money in all four starts on the main track at Santa Anita Park, although she has only won one of those races and has zero wins in 2014.
Her Pace Figures are a good step down from most of the competitors.

The Play: Too Slow – Much too slow, though her appreciation of the track could make her a longshot to round out the superfecta (if one goes that deep).
Don’t Tell Sophia (5-1)
Her first Grade 1 stakes win came at the hands of Close Hatches as Don't Tell Sophia successfully made the difficult jump up in class. She has been in the top three in each of her last 13 races, and her late running style should suit the 1 1/8-mile distance. Originally bought for $1,000 — that's right $1,000 — as a yearling, she has earned close to $1-million in her career already. The oldest runner in the Distaff field at six, she looks to finally be coming into her own.
Her most recent win was a 79.5/63.4 and while it looks a little “toppy,” she does have a 79.9 a year ago which reduces the chance that the 79.5 was her lifetime best. Also note that the 79.9 was on Nov. 2, 2013, the weekend of the Breeders' Cup. Her connections did not send her to Santa Anita last year and wisely stayed home and took down a Grade 2 stakes at Churchill.
Her dirt spreads are ultra-consistent (dirt spread = final figure minus 4f figure) with a 16, 16 and 15 in her last three starts.

The Play: Fringe Contender – At 5-1 morning-line odds, there is value that says she can run back to a similar type race, which puts Sophia right in the mix, just don't tell her.
Valiant Emilia (20-1)
One of two international runners, Valiant Emilia ships in from Peru after winning 11 of 23 starts lifetime for $81,667, the lowest bankroll of all the runners.
We found and watched her last Group 3 race in Peru. She followed slow fractions all the way around (24:2, 49.2, 1:16). When they turned for home, the front-runners were done and she cruised to victory.
The only plus is she picks up leading West Coast jockey Rafael Bejarano.
The Play: Too Slow – She looks completely over her head; our top choice to finish last. 
Ria Antonia (15-1)
The fourth runner in this race to come out of the Spinster Stakes at Keeneland, Ria Antonia put away Close Hatches early before being caught late by Don’t Tell Sophia. She was the story in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies as she finished second at 32-1 but got moved up to first via disqualification.
Beyond that DQ win, she has only won one other race, and is 1 for 13 lifetime  when it comes to crossing the finish line in front.
Her most recent figure of 77.8/74.7 is a clear lifetime top but it is not a DTOP (Double Top Form Cycle Pattern) as the 74.7 was not a lifetime best at 4f.

The Play: Regressor – More likely that she regresses off of the 77.8 than moves forward. Her success on the front end in the Spinster might encourage a similar type of close-to-the-front trip.
Untapable (5-2)
Widely held as the best filly in the country, 3-year-olds or otherwise, Untapable is a three time Grade 1 winner who has earned more than $1.7-million in 2014. Her owners took a big swing running against males in the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational Stakes on July 27 and there was some minor concern that after getting banged around and running fifth, she might have lost confidence. Her win in the Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes on Sept. 20 showed no such problem and by the look of the tote board in every start against fillies and mares this year, she will be the favorite.
Her Pace Figures are strong, having not run worse than a 76 in any start this year. After posting an 82.1/71.8 in the Kentucky Oaks she regressed 6 points to a 76.2 followed by a 76.9 and her most recent 78.1. She earned a 75.2 4f figure in her most recent start, which was arguably the fastest of her career (not taking into account that horrible Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies from 2013). If her 4f figure was .8 higher she would be sitting on a NPT, but in either case, and visually speaking from the watching the race, she could be more interested in being close to the pace, though drawing the 10 post with Close Hatches speed outside could be a challenge.
Untapable faces older females for the first time in her career as she looks to make her final mark of the year and prove she is the best female horse in the country.

The Play: Contender – She is ultra-competitive in all aspects of her game but as the morning-line favorite, there is limited value on top.
Close Hatches  (3-1)
The runner-up in the Distaff last year to Beholder (who is out), Close Hatches is a five time Grade 1 winner who has banked more than $2.7-million, the most in the field. She was on a 4-race winning streak since the 2013 Distaff when she faltered badly in her last out as a 1-5 favorite.
She packed it in at the 6-furlong mark and barely held on for fourth. Maybe it was the track or the preceding insane heavily pressed workout pattern, but this is not the effort one wants to see coming into a $2-million Breeders' Cup race. With two wins and one second in five races ($845,000) at the 1 1/8-mile distance, it could also be noted that this is not her top distance.
From a Pace Figure perspective, she showed a two-point forward move off the Aug. 22 NPT (New Pace Top – fastest four furlong figure while not running a lifetime top final figure and strong indication of progression) Form Cycle Pattern, but her obvious visual regression in the race is even more of an issue off an expected forward move following the NPT.

The Play: Regressor – The outside post with a long run into the first turn, plus 3-1 morning-line odds make her tough to back, especially off a poor race at a distance where her lifetime top is 76.
$2-million Breeders' Cup DistaffFriday, Santa Anita Park, Race 9, 7:35 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, dirt, fillies and mares, 3 years old and older

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Odds

1

L’Amour De Ma Vie

Maxime Guyon

Pia Brandt

15-1

2

Tiz Midnight

Victor Espinoza

Bob Baffert

10-1

3

Iotapa

Joe Talamo

John Sadler

6-1

4

Belle Gallantey

Jose Ortiz

Rudy Rodriguez

6-1

5

Unbridled Forever

John Velazquez

Dallas Stewart

20-1

6

Stanwyck

Corey Nakatani

John Shirreffs

20-1

7

Don’t Tell Sophia

Joe Rocco Jr.

Phil Sims

5-1

8

Valiant Emilia

Rafael Bejarano

Gary Mandella

20-1

9

Ria Antonia

Paco Lopez

Tom Amoss

15-1

10

Untapable

Rosie Napravnik

Steve Asmussen

5-2

11

Close Hatches 

Joel Rosario

Bill Mott

3-1