V. E. Day Could Topple Shared Belief in Classic

V. E. Day (outside) wins the Travers Stakes at Saratoga. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
When writing about the 31st running of the Grade 1, $5-million Breeders’ Cup Classic, the story of unbeaten favorite Shared Belief has to come to the fore. Two-year-old champion of 2013 with three wins in as many tries, Shared Belief had issues that kept him off the Derby trail earlier this year. Returning at the end of May as if he never took time off, Shared Belief has reeled off four straight wins, the last two in Grade 1 stakes. Lined up to try to spoil the party are 13 runners, including six other 3-year-olds, plus an also-eligible should there be a scratch.
The 3-year-old group is led by Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner California Chrome, who enters the Classic off a disappointing sixth-place finish as the favorite in the Pennsylvania Derby, which was won by Bayern. Other notables among Shared Belief's peers are Grade 1 Travers Stakes winner V.E. Day and Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist, the latter coming into the Classic off a win in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup. Grade 2 Suburban Handicap winner Zivo, Grade 1 Whitney Stakes winner Moreno and Grade 1 Pacific Classic runner-up (behind Shared Belief) Toast of New York are just a few of the runners that could have a say in the outcome of the classic.
TOAST OF NEW YORK

Possible pace scenario:
Bayern and Moreno both like to lead early and although both occasionally have pressed the pacesetter in a couple of their races I suspect neither horse (nor their jockeys) will let the other get anything resembling an easy lead. Cigar Street has rarely been farther away than third in the early stages of his races and he could press the two frontrunners into faster than average fractions for the distance.
Contenders:
Regarding Shared Belief, the numbers don't tell the whole story. Winning the Pacific Classic with a career best 109 Equibase Speed Figure, Shared Belief subsequently earned a 106 figure when victorious by a neck last month in the Awesome Again Stakes. In that race, Shared Belief was kept wide by another horse through most of the first half of the race. That pressure, combined with having to run farther than the other horses, might have caused most horses to get tired late, but Shared Belief just kept persevering and battled head-and-head, neck-and-neck, down to the wire to win. Having won at the Classic distance in the Pacific Classic and having won at Santa Anita in the Awesome Again, with a pace scenario that suits his off-the-pace running style and with an indomitable spirit that refuses to lose, Shared Belief gets top billing in this year's Breeders' Cup Classic.
SHARED BELIEF WINS THE AWESOME AGAIN

Having dispensed with the obvious, there could be money to be made not only with win bets on a couple of others that should go to post at much higher odds but with exactas or trifectas in the Classic with a full field. First among those of interest is V. E. Day, who suffered from a bump at the start of the Jockey Club Gold Cup that caused him to be farther back than the jockey likely wanted him to be. He had to steady in traffic with about a half-mile to go as well, eventually finishing sixth in a field of 11. Prior to that V. E. Day reeled off four straight wins including the upset in the Travers with a career best 114 Equibase Speed Figure effort that may be good enough to post the upset if Shared Belief is not up to the task.
Tonalist, like Shared Belief and V. E. Day, is a Grade 1 stakes winner at this 1 ¼-mile distance. Following his upset win in the Belmont Stakes in June, Tonalist disappointed a bit when second as the favorite in the Jim Dandy then again when third behind V. E. Day in the Travers. Blinkers came off for the Jockey Club Gold Cup last month and the result was a strong victory rallying from 10th of 11 in the early stages and a career-best 113 Equibase Figure. With Joel Rosario in the saddle for his last three wins and again in the Classic, Tonalist has every right to take another step forward and in doing so, post the upset.
Zivo has won more than half of his 17 career races, with nine victories including the Suburban Handicap in July at the distance of the Classic. Usually last or nearly so in the early stages, Zivo often starts running on with about a half-mile to go, which is what he did when clearly second behind Tonalist in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last month. With a 111 figure in that race to improve upon and having earned a very competitive 115 figure in the Suburban, Zivo rounds out a quartet of contenders I plan to play in exacta and trifecta boxes.  I might wager on him to win as well if he goes to post anywhere near his 15-1 morning-line odds.
ZIVO WINS THE SUBURBAN HANDICAP

Notes about others: California Chrome may have found a mile and one-half too far or the long spring campaign took its toll when he finished fourth in the Belmont, but I can find no excuse for his sixth place effort last month in the Pennsylvania Derby and so I would need to see a better effort before endorsing him. Likely to go to post as the second or third betting choice, leaving him off our exacta and other exotic wagering tickets may help us make a profit in the race even if Shared Belief validates favoritism by winning. As stated previously, Bayern and Moreno both could likely go too fast for their own good on the front end, and with a question about either being successful at this mile and one-quarter trip, I won't be wagering on them.
Cigar Street is a horse many bettors may fancy based on his improving pattern this year (109 last-race Equibase Figure) when second and then first, but the horses he faced recently are Grade 3 types at best, in my opinion, so he might be overmatched in this field. Toast of New York could be interesting to consider for exacta and trifecta tickets as well, as he finished a non-threatening second behind Shared Belief in the Pacific Classic (with a 105 figure) and has been rested since then.
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Big Cazanova (109), Candy Boy (115), Footbridge (107), Imperative (122), Majestic Harbor(109) and Prayer for Relief (113).
My Selections:
Shared Belief
V. E. Day
Tonalist
Zivo
Ellis' complete Breeders' Cup weekend (Friday and Saturday) selections are available at Equibase.com, TrackMaster.com and other sites.
$5-million Breeders' Cup ClassicSaturday, Santa Anita Park, Race 12, 8:35 p.m. ET1 1/4 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds and older 

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Odds

1

Prayer for Relief

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Dale Romans

30-1

2

Cigar Street

John Velazquez

Bill Mott

12-1

3

Imperative

Frankie Dettori

George Papaprodromou

30-1

4

Moreno

Javier Castellano

Eric Guillot

20-1

5

V. E. Day

Joe Talamo

Jimmy Jerkens

20-1

6

Shared Belief 

Mike Smith

Jerry Hollendorfer

9-5

7

Bayern

Martin Garcia

Bob Baffert

6-1

8

Zivo

Jose Lezcano

Chad Brown

15-1

9

Toast of New York

Jamie Spencer

Jamie Osborne

12-1

10

Footbridge

Rafael Bejarano

Eoin Harty

30-1

11

Tonalist

Joel Rosario

Christophe Clement

5-1

12

Candy Boy

Corey Nakatani

John Sadler

20-1

13

California Chrome

Victor Espinoza

Art Sherman

4-1

14

Majestic Harbor

Tyler Baze

Sean McCarthy

20-1

15AE

Big Cazanova

Elvis Trujillo

Peter Miller