American Pharoah won two Grade 1 races before the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, including the Del Mar Futurity. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
Moods can change with the speed of a lightning bolt in Thoroughbred racing.
On Monday, the $2-million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile had the look of a thrilling race with all of the year’s prime time players that would crown the champion 2-year-old colt or gelding and present us with the horse who will head into the new year as the favorite for the Kentucky Derby.
On Saturday afternoon at Santa Anita, that might still happen.
Yet there will also be a Roger Maris-like asterisk attached to the results because of what happened the very next day.
With Tuesday’s announcement that two-time Grade 1 winner American Pharoah would not be running in the Juvenile because of a bruised foot, the race not only lost its 2-1 favorite but the complexion of the division changed as well.
The devastated words from trainer Bob Baffert and owner Ahmed Zayat after the news broke reflected how much potential they saw in American Pharoah and how they expected a crowning performance in Saturday’s showdown.
“I've had horses scratch close to a race,” Baffert said. “But this is probably the most disappointing. We all saw the way he was training. He's something special. I haven't had a colt like this in a long time. It's a bitter pill to swallow. “
The injury is not believed to be serious and there’s no reason at this point to believe that American Pharoah will not be found somewhere on the Road to the Kentucky Derby in the spring.
But on Saturday, a field of 12 will break from the gate in a race that will be run with the shadow of American Pharaoh hovering over it.
While the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner has been named the 2-year-old champion in 23 of 30 years, much like last year with Shared Belief, the result could send Eclipse Award voters scurrying for a non-Breeders’ Cup starter, which in this instance would be American Pharoah.
There are only two Grade 1 winners in the Juvenile – thanks to American Pharoah’s wins in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner – and they loom as the only ones who can build a compelling enough to edge past the “Pharoah” for the 2-year-old throne.
Both Daredevil and Carpe Diem, each trained by Todd Pletcher, are both undefeated and coming off important Grade 1 wins in New York and Kentucky.
Daredevil won the Grade 1 Champagne on a sloppy racetrack at Belmont Park by 2 ½ lengths, making him 2-for-2, both times on a wet track at the Elmont, New York, oval. His speed figure in the Champagne, according to several outlets, was the fastest posted by any of the Juvenile entrants – including American Pharoah – but there’s some skepticism generated by the wet conditions.
DAREDEVIL ROMPED IN THE MUD TO GET THE CHAMPAGNE WIN
How will Daredevil fare in sunny southern California, where it supposedly never rains? After the Champagne, Pletcher expressed the opinion that it was Daredevil’s works on a dry track that first impressed him and he believes his colt is anything but a one-trick, mud runner.
"We'd never breezed him on an off track, so I was a little concerned running him the first time, but we felt pedigree-wise he would handle it, and he obviously does," said Pletcher about the Lets Go Stable and WinStar Farm colt. "He trains like a good horse on fast dirt, too."
Carpe Diem, owned by Stonestreet Stable and WinStar Farm, has seen nothing but dry tracks in his two wins. He won by 2 ½ lengths as a 3-5 favorite in his debut at Saratoga and then was stretched out to two turns at Keeneland and won by 6 ¼, easy lengths in the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity.
Put a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victory on either of those runners' resume and it would probably eclipse an idle “Pharoah.”
For anyone else, a victory in an American Pharoah-less Juvenile would most likely not be enough.
So as race day approaches, what seemed like a race with rather clear-cut lines in the sand with American Pharoah in the starting gate, is now a more circuitous scramble to the winner’s circle, a championship and acclaim in the Triple Crown chase.
Twelve horse will collectively try to fill the void – with Pletcher’s duo doing most of the lifting - yet the Juvenile might generate a totally different array of emotions if either Zayat’s Mr. Z, a 20-1 shot, or the Baffert-trained One Lucky Dane, a 10-1 shot, can win the Juvenile.
The odds are stacked against them, but let’s not forget Santa Anita is not that far from the dream land known as Hollywood, and, besides, moods can always change in an instant in Thoroughbred racing.
$2-million Sentiuent Jet Breeders' Cup JuvenileSaturday, Santa Anita Park, Race 8, 5:43 p.m. ET1 1/16 miles, colts and geldings, 2 years old
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
1
Calculator
Elvis Trujillo
Peter Miller
2
Private Prospect
Jesse Campbell
Michael Campbell
3
Blue Dancer
Rico Walcott
Greg Tracy
4
The Great War
Ryan Moore
Aidan O'Brien
5
American Pharoah
Victor Espinoza
Bob Baffert
6
Lucky Player
Ricardo Santana Jr.
Steve Asmussen
7
Texas Red
Kent Desormeaux
Keith Desormeaux
8
Souper Colossal
Paco Lopez
Eddie Plesa Jr.
9
Carpe Diem
John Velazquez
Todd Pletcher
10
Mr. Z
Mike Smith
D. Wayne Lukas
11
One Lucky Dane
Rafael Bejarano
Bob Baffert
12
Daredevil
Javier Castellano
Todd Pletcher
13
Upstart
Jose Ortiz
Rick Violette Jr.