Litfin at Large: Breeders' Cup Favs Get Tough Draws

It's positively uncanny how many favorites and prominent contenders drew horribly for the 35th Breeders' Cup.

On Future Stars Friday, Bellafina, the 2-1 morning-line choice in the Tito's Handmade Vodka Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), will begin from the far outside in a field of 10. One race later Anthony Van Dyck is the tepid 4-1 morning-line favorite from post 14 in the Juvenile Turf (G1T), with co-second choice Current in post 12.

Saturday's Breeders' Cup races begin with 8-5 favorite Marley's Freedom breaking from post 13 in the Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), with Selcourt—the last one to beat her—under the gun from the fence. The inside post is a particularly tight squeeze when all 14 stalls are filled, as the innermost ones are left open otherwise.

Then it's on to Conquest Tsunami from post 14 in the Turf Sprint (G1T), City of Light  stuck on the rail in the Dirt Mile (G1), pace-pressing Analyze It going from post 12 in the Mile (G1T), Monomoy Girl from the far outside in the Distaff (G1), Waldgeist out of the 12 hole in the Longines Turf (G1), and Accelerate  from post 14 in the Classic (G1).

After midweek rain in Louisville, things are supposed to dry out, with just the slight chance of a shower Friday and dry conditions Saturday. To further confuse you, here are some additional things that occurred to me while going through the races.

FRIDAY, NOV. 2

Juvenile Turf Sprint (fifth race, 3:21 p.m. ET): Half the field are fillies, including four jetsetters entered by Wesley Ward, who has saddled more 2-year-old turf winners the past five years than anyone else. Aidan O'Brien counters with a pair of group 3 stakes winners by the late Scat Daddy, the most prolific sire of precocious grass runners at Churchill Downs during the same time period.

The slight lean, however, is to Soldier's Call, who tried older horses in the Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp (G1) and came out on the short end of a three-way photo last time out.

Juvenile Fillies Turf (sixth race, 4 p.m.): It's hard to overstate how impressive Newspaperofrecord has been so far, and a rain-softened course should not keep her from becoming Chad Brown's fifth winner in this event. A case can be made for or against literally everyone behind the favorite, so the "all" button could be a consideration underneath.

Juvenile Fillies (seventh race, 4:40 p.m.): Four of this event's last five winners have been anywhere from 17-1 to 61-1, and California-based runners have won just once from eight editions at Churchill Downs, none of which bodes well for Bellafina out there in the 10 hole. It's tough to see her getting over to the inside, given Serengeti Empress, Vibrance, and Jaywalk will be out to secure early position as well. Those three are among five in the field purchased as yearlings at the 2017 Keeneland September Sale, along with Reflect and Restless Rider.

Juvenile Turf (eighth race, 5:22 p.m.): Galileo is well represented here by his sons Line of Duty and Anthony Van Dyck, who look best among the five overseas invaders. The latter will need some racing luck under Ryan Moore if he is to give Aidan O'Brien a fifth triumph in this race since 2011.

Juvenile (ninth race, 6:05 p.m.): Game Winner is pegged at 8-5 to become the first Californian to win this event under the Twin Spires, as they have been blanked from eight prior editions here. Pacesetters (winless in the last six editions) haven't fared well in recent years either, and there are four early speeds breaking alongside each other in the middle of the field, including Champagne (G1) winner Complexity and Hopeful (G1) winner Mind Control. A pace meltdown could find horses like Code of Honor and Standard Deviation rolling into the picture late.

SATURDAY, NOV. 3

Filly & Mare Sprint (third race, noon ET): At least Marley's Freedom has an ample run to the turn, but it will still be necessary to keep tabs on how the track played Friday and in Saturday's first two races, and downgrade her somewhat if it looks like inside speed has an edge. That's what Selcourt's people will be hoping for, at any rate. Getting some versatility and consistency points is Golden Mischief, a Juddmonte Farms purchase after her sophomore season, who has pounded out three stakes wins from on and off the pace since being "banged around" in the Winning Colors (G3) at Churchill Downs in late May.

Turf Sprint (fourth race, 12:38 p.m.): Assuming the going is somewhere on the yielding side of good, but pending what Friday's grass races can tell us, one gets the feeling that Mother Nature is working against the first three finishers in this race a year ago—Stormy Liberal, Richard's Boy, and Disco Partner—who all like to hear their feet rattle. The same can be said for the poorly posted Conquest Tsunami, who was nailed on the wire by Stormy Liberal in a renewal of the Eddie D (G3T) that went just a tick off the course record down the hill at Santa Anita Park. The veteran mare Chanteline can motor too (she was two ticks off the course record winning the Smart N Fancy Stakes), and is now 4-1-0 from her last five starts on grass. Another price chance in here is Vision Perfect, who has "off the page" form on yielding and soft turf at 2 and 3.

Dirt Mile (fifth race, 1:16 p.m.): "Really just a workout for him today," was how Trevor Denman described Catalina Cruiser's win in the Pat O'Brien (G2), which kept the 4-year-old son of Union Rags  unbeaten through four starts, all by lopsided margins. He could get trainer John Sadler, who is winless in 41 Breeders' Cup starts, on the board, but this will be his first start outside Southern California, and fellow Santa Anita-based runner City of Light  showed the ability to ship and win by out-gaming Accelerate in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) earlier this year. The 3-year-olds Seven Trumpets and Firenze Fire were a half-length apart in the Jerome back in January, and have since knocked heads in the Dwyer (G3), H. Allen Jerkens (G1), and the Gallant Bob (G3). Seven Trumpets was on the deeper inside footing much of the way in the Gallant Bob, and is undefeated in three starts on this track.

Filly & Mare Turf (sixth race, 2:04 p.m.): Wild Illusion will try to become the second straight homebred filly by Dubawi to win this race for Godolphin and Charles Appleby, after Wuheida ($24.40) won it last year. Magic Wand was a length back of Wild Illusion in the Prix de l'Opera (G1) last month, but so far rain-softened ground has been her Achilles' Heel. Would it surprise anyone if either Fourstar Crook or Sistercharlie carried the day for trainer Chad Brown?

Sprint (seventh race, 2:46 p.m.): History is against Roy H, since the last five Sprint winners who attempted to repeat are 0-1-0, but it sure looks like he's repeating a favorable form pattern—improved rebound effort in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G1)—that propelled him to victory last year over Imperial Hint. The latter hardly drew a deep breath when he took the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (G1) and Vosburgh Invitational (G1) in his last two starts, but must prove he can handle this track, where he has turned in sub-par efforts in two tries. The homecourt edge goes to Limousine Liberal (6-1-0 locally), but the rail-drawn Whitmore has dogged him around all year, and will run inside horses. Tough little heat, as they say!

Mile (eighth race, 3:36 p.m.): Past Mile winners at Churchill include Court Vision  ($131.60), Opening Verse ($55.40), and Miesque's Approval ($50.60), so this may be an opportune place to cast a wide net for multi-race exotic wagers. Oscar Performance , fresh off a stroll in the park to wire the Ricoh Woodbine Mile (G1T), looks absolutely loose up front once again. That tactical advantage may or may not prove decisive, though, and Polydream has reportedly flourished since her arrival, following a bad trip behind One Master in the Prix de la Foret (G1). Expert Eye couldn't stave off Lightning Spear in the Sussex Stakes (G1), but it might be a different story here, as the latter does not act particularly well on rain-drenched footing.

Distaff (ninth race, 4:16 p.m.): The last two Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1) winners, Abel Tasman and Monomoy Girl, throw down in a race the former came up just a half-length short in last year. Abel Tasman comes off a puzzling poor performance in the Zenyatta (G1) at 1-10, a race simply too bad to be true, while Monomoy Girl will make her initial try against older fillies and mares after she drifted in and out and lost the Cotillion (G1) to Midnight Bisou via disqualification. It could be telling that Mike Smith sticks with Abel Tasman over Midnight Bisou, but backers of the latter will be compensated by a bigger price. The horse for the course is Blue Prize, who is 3-2-0 from five local runs, and yet will probably get away at 6-1 or thereabouts.

Turf (10th race, 4:56 p.m.): Just because winners of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1) are 0-2-1 from six tries doesn't mean two-time Arc winner Enable can't win, does it? It's to her credit that she was able to win such a demanding race again off a single prep run, which followed an 11-month absence, and she will be heavily backed to make it seven-for-seven at the mile-and-a-half trip. Just in case, though, we also want to use Waldgeist, who stayed on admirably despite stretch traffic in the Arc, as well as Channel Maker and Glorious Empire, who presently appear the best of the American-based horses.

Classic (11th race, 5:44 p.m.): I'm just not sold on Accelerate, who got beat on the square the only other time he has ventured outside his home circuit and has recorded his best efforts at Del Mar for three straight years. Bob Baffert won three straight Classics from 2014-16 before he came in second and third last year, and takes two shots here with West Coast  (third last year) and McKinzie. The latter's trials and tribulations are well understood by now, but he has a crazy good—crazy good!—pedigree to absolutely relish Churchill Downs. McKinzie's sire, Street Sense , won the 2016 Juvenile by 10 lengths over the track, and took the Kentucky Derby (G1) the next spring. Street Sense was out of the mare Bedazzle, a three-time winner over the track. Street Sense's sire, Street Cry, won the 2002 Stephen Foster Handicap (G1) by 6 1/2 lengths. McKinzie's dam, Runway Model, won the 2004 Golden Rod (G2), and she was by Petionville, who won his only start at Churchill Downs. All of which is a roundabout way to say I will key Baffert's duo. Accelerate is the main backup, and in the unlikely event things have gone perfectly to this point, we'll also have a "cocktail ticket" with "backup backups" Thunder Snow and Mind Your Biscuits still in play.