Top U.S. Yearling Sales Up by $85 Million

At the conclusion of the major North American and European yearling sales—with Fasig-Tipton's The October Sale wrapping Oct. 25 and Arqana's October Yearling Sale concluding Oct. 26—the market registered significant gains.

Brianne Stanley of The Bill Oppenheim Group calculated that 8,859 yearlings sold (67.5% of 13,123 cataloged) for total revenues of US$898,478,319, an average of $101,420. In the corresponding sales in 2017, a total of 8,548 yearlings sold (66.7% of 12,808 cataloged) for revenues of $816,039,237, an average of $95,466. About 300 (4%) more yearlings were cataloged and sold compared to the same sales last year, for a 10% increase in gross, and a 6% increase in average.

It's big news that the North American and European yearling market gross increased by $82 million, from $816 million to $898 million. But when we break the figures down a little, it's absolutely clear that all of the increase was in North America, and all of the North American gains came in the three Fasig-Tipton summer sales (The July Sale, The Saratoga Sale, and the New York Bred Yearlings sale) and in the Keeneland September Yearling Sale. In fact, all other North American yearling sales, and the entire European yearling market, were down marginally.

Here's the tale of the tape. Between the three Fasig-Tipton summer sales and Keeneland September, there were 3,454 yearlings sold (63.2% of the 5,469 cataloged among the four sales). The gross for these four sales increased by $85 million (21%). The gross for the other 5,405 yearlings sold—at other North American sales and European sales—actually declined by about $2.5 million. In mitigation of that—in Europe, at least—the yearling sale gross had increased by €35 million (about 12%) from 2016 to 2017. So, at least to some extent, the gains at the Fasig-Tipton summer sales and Keeneland September were catching up with previous years' growth in Europe.

Nonetheless, the results do serve to demonstrate the growing gap between the higher and lower market tiers—the gap between the rich and the poor, we might say. The number of seven-figure yearlings sold at Keeneland September doubled, for example. Examination of the overall numbers and the respective sales confirm what everyone has been thinking and feeling: Demand is strong and still growing at the top but is, at best, steady—or declining—in all but the top tiers.

Galileo Regains Top Spot by Average

Last year, five sires marked themselves out as a commercial super-elite, with yearling averages of $650,000 or more: Dubawi, Galileo, and Frankel in Europe, and Tapit  and War Front  in North America. There was a significant gap back to Darley's top American sire Medaglia d'Oro  in the sixth spot by yearling average in 2017, with an average under $400,000, and a 40% differential between the top five and No. 6.

This year, the top six sires from last year were still the top six sires on average, but they had moved around some. Interestingly, Sheikh Mohammed's termination of his boycott against Coolmore stallions was probably responsible for Galileo retaking the top spot by yearling average (34 sold for an average of $1,063,459) from Dubawi (19 sold for a $1,035,402 average), both because Sheikh Mohammed bought Galileos (four) and because he didn't buy all the Dubawis. But the two European powerhouse sires, Coolmore's best and Darley's best, both topped the million-dollar mark by average.

Medaglia d'Oro moved up from sixth to fourth by average among the six super-elite sires in 2018. Claiborne Farm's War Front topped all American sires, with 21 yearlings averaging $760,225. Medaglia d'Oro grabbed the second spot, with his 44 yearlings averaging $598,588, with Gainesway's three-time leading sire Tapit dropping to third in North America, with 39 yearlings averaging $536,923. Juddmonte's superstar sire Frankel remained third in Europe, and was sixth overall, though his average did drop significantly, as 20 yearlings in 2018 averaged $476,713.

Hill 'n' Dale Farms sire Curlin , standing for $100,000 for the first time in 2016, saw his average improve to $447,610 for 41 sold, while Ashford Stud's 2015 Triple Crown winner and leading first-crop yearling sire American Pharoah  had 66 yearlings sell for an average of $431,516. Juddmonte's Kingman, Europe's second leading freshman sire who has five black-type winners already, was the top freshman sire by yearling average, having 39 yearlings average $371,593. WinStar Farm's Pioneerof The Nile  rounds out the top 10 North American/Europen sires by 2018 yearling average, with 42 yearlings averaging $353,952.

Including American Pharoah, three American and three European sires with their first yearlings averaged over $150,000. Lane's End stands the American 2-3, Honor Code  (61 sold/$220,313 average) and Liam's Map  (63/$152,571). Europe's top three are Shadwell's Muhaarar (53/$231,452); Darley's Golden Horn (32/$210,954); and Coolmore's Gleneagles (49/$152,128). 

A total of 60 stallions averaged over $100,000. Those with the most sold were Ireland's Tally Ho Stud's Kodiac (108 sold/136 cataloged); Spendthrift's Into Mischief  (97/128); Coolmore's top European freshman sire No Nay Never (92/103); Ashford's Uncle Mo  (89/143); and Haras de Bonneval's Siyouni (83/107).

November Weanling and Covering Sires

There are 189 sires with weanlings cataloged to the Fasig-Tipton November and Keeneland November mixed sales, and a total of 1,908 weanlings entered in the sales. Of those, 71 sires have 10 or more cataloged, 33 have 20 or more, and 10 sires have 30 or more weanlings cataloged between the two sales. 

Sixteen sires with their first foals selling have 10 or more cataloged. Of six stallions that stood for $25,000 or more for their first seasons in 2018, Darley's Frosted  and WinStar's Exaggerator  each have 26 foals in the sales. Of Frosted's 26, there are 21 in the November sales' first five days (Fasig-Tipton November plus Keeneland Books 1-2); Exaggerator has 17 in the first five days.

Ashford's Air Force Blue  has 25 entered (12 in first five days); Claiborne's top sprinter Runhappy  has 24 cataloged (17 in first five days); Taylor Made's California Chrome  has 15 cataloged (13); and Darley's Nyquist  has 11 (8). 

Taylor Made's Not This Time  and WinStar's Speightster  lead the group of F2018 sires with 42 weanlings each cataloged from their first crops. Airdrie Stud's Upstart  and Ashford's Vancouver have 28 each. WinStar's Outwork  has 27, Hill 'n' Dale's Flintshire  has 25, and Taylor Made's Mshawish  and WinStar's Tourist  each have 20 cataloged.

Among covering sires, four F2019 sires with their first mares in foal have 30 or more mares cataloged throughout the two sales.

Two Calumet sires, Keen Ice  (37) and Bal A Bali  (34), are among these, though nearly all of their weanlings are in Keeneland's Books 3-7. Claiborne's Mastery  has 35 mares cataloged in foal, of which 23 are in the first five days, while Ashford's Practical Joke  has 30 cataloged (14 in the first five days).

The group's two most expensive sires, Juddmonte's Arrogate  and Three Chimneys' Gun Runner , has 16 and 17 mares cataloged in foal respectively, with only one mare in foal to Gun Runner slated to sell after Book 2.

For more articles by Bill Oppenheim, Brianne Stanley's Weekly Sales ticker covering the 2018 yearling sales, sires' APEX ratings and more, please visit www.billoppenheim.com