Litfin at Large: Breeders' Cup Hangover

It's Breeders' Cup Hangover week, and as you might expect, the stakes schedule is fairly light for Nov. 10. The only graded stakes to be run in North America is the $100,000 Commonwealth Turf (G3T) at Churchill Downs, while the richest race is the $150,000 Artie Schiller at Aqueduct Racetrack, which also conjured up the inaugural running of the Atlantic Beach for juvenile turf sprinters.

Meanwhile, five hundred-granders will be run at Laurel Park as part of Salute the Troops Day, and there are nine $75,000 stakes at Gulfstream Park West on a Sunshine Millions Preview card.

Grass racing also takes center stage on the first Saturday at Del Mar's fall meet, where the featured Let It Ride drew seven sophomore turf runners, headed by the unbeaten Prince Earl.

As per usual in the San Diego area, it's going to be sunny with a high of around 75 degrees, but the weather will be much more of a factor in Kentucky and New York. Churchill was muddy and off the turf Nov. 9 after overnight rain, and it's not supposed to get much above 40 degrees Saturday. Over at the Big A, which is adjacent to John F. Kennedy International Airport, winds may occasionally gust faster than 40 miles per hour.

Here are some early thoughts:

Commonwealth Turf (Churchill, tenth race, 5:36 p.m. ET): You would think anyone and everyone with a useful 3-year-old grass horse would be chomping at the bit to try and pick up some black type without having to face older horses this late in the season, but only seven entered.

Steve Asmussen, who has amassed 19 training titles at Churchill, bookends the short field with Reride (1) and Hot Springs (7).

Hot Springs flattened out to wind up a couple lengths back of March to the Arch (4) in the Saranac (G3T) at Saratoga Race Course, but may be able to turn the tables over the local course, where he is undefeated from three starts, capped by a win in the Jefferson Cup last time out. Neither one, though, has ever run on turf rated any worse than "good," while Reride won his initial turf start at Keeneland last fall on soft going.

Mike Maker entered Sniper Kitten (3) and Year of the Kitten (5), a pair of Kitten's Joy  colts that rate a look. The former was closer to the early pace than he prefers most recently, while the latter posted a debut victory over a yielding Churchill course last November, and was reclaimed just more than three weeks ago.

A - 7

B - 1, 3, 4

C - 5

Artie Schiller (Aqueduct, eighth race, 3:47 p.m.): I have a tough time believing you'll get the morning-line price of 9-2 on Blacktype, who ran a close second in the 2016 Artie Schiller and was the beaten favorite in last year's edition.

Just as last year, Blacktype (5) is coming off a win in the Knickerbocker (G2T), but unlike last year, the footing will not be firm. This is good news for the durable 7-year-old gelding, who prefers some give in the ground and projects to be tracking Black Tide (4) through the early going. The latter has won six of 15 starts and nearly $400,000 since he was claimed for $25,000 by David Cannizzo early in 2017.

Blacktype's main threats are Chad Brown's pair of Bricks and Mortar (6) and Projected (9), and Qurbaan (1), who is here after he failed to get into an oversubscribed Breeders' Cup Mile (G1T) last week.

Bricks and Mortar burst onto the scene when he won his first four starts as a 3-year-old in 2017, including the Hall Of Fame (G2T) over Yoshida, who developed into a grade 1 winner on turf and dirt this year. Although he has been sidelined for 13 months, Bricks and Mortar bears watching, as he will likely head to Florida after this.

Profiteer (2) has run well on soft turf, and was favored against Blacktype when third off a three-month freshening earlier this fall.

A - 5, 6

B - 1, 9

C - 2

Richard W. Small (Laurel Park, ninth race, 4 p.m.): This 1 1/8-mile route may be the most wide-open stakes race anywhere in the country Saturday, as I have check marks on a large handful of the 16 entrants.

Small Bear (1), Name Changer (6), and Zanotti (10) were all beaten at Parx Racing fairly recently by Aztec Sense (who has won eight of nine starts since he was acquired by Jorge Navarro). It's worth noting Zanotti comes off a dead-rail trip, where he edged Name Changer for second on the Pennsylvania Derby undercard.

Tour de Force (3) and Something Awesome (12) serve as strong examples of horses who have improved substantially after changing hands. Tour de Force was purchased after he finished off the board twice early in the year, and has recaptured top form in three starts for trainer Lacey Gaudet, who is off to a 16-for-41 start at Laurel this fall. Something Awesome won five of his first six starts after he was transferred to Jose Corrales, including four wins at Laurel and a 9-1 upset in the Charles Town Classic (G2), before something went awry and he was eased in a sloppy renewal of the Pimlico Special (G3).

At 20-1 on the line, however, and provided speed is holding up reasonably well, I want to take a flyer on Dalmore (9), who set the pace and held on for second in the Prairie Meadows Cornhusker Handicap (G3) in his most recent two-turn outing on a fast track. He chased Diversify in a sloppy Whitney Stakes (G1) four weeks later, and then got the rest of the summer off before he chased Promises Fulfilled in the Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes (G2) at six furlongs five weeks ago. There's no one named Diversify or Promises Fulfilled in here, and he might be able to set up shop on the lead, which is never a bad thing in such a bulky field.

Win and Place - 9

Exactas - 1, 3, 6, 10, 12 with 9

Trifectas - 1, 3, 6, 10, 12 with 1, 3, 6, 10, 12 with 9

Let It Ride (Del Mar, seventh race, 3:30 p.m. PT): Prince Earl (2) steps into stakes company after winning his first two starts, and the morning-line favorite may trip out nicely just off second choice Afleet Ascent (1) and third choice Calexman (7). Those two have been outfinished repeatedly at a mile and longer, so let's key the up-and-coming Prince Earl in exactas with Risky Proposition (4) and Fight On (6), who figure to be rolling late.