Betting the Breeders’ Cup Classic on a Budget
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The blinkers came off for Tonalist in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and he posted a convincing victory against older horses. He appears poised to run another big race on Saturday in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
Shared Belief is the logical choice for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, winning seven of seven races, and he’s been handled expertly by Hall of Fame trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and jockey Mike Smith, who is the winningest rider in the history of the Breeders’ Cup.
He is a must use ... but no sure thing, especially at 9-to-5 odds.
I think Bayern will be overbet and the distance is a big factor; I don't think he will get an easy, uncontested lead. He might hit the board at best.
New York-bred Zivo, after reeling off five straight wins to start the year, ran a game second to Tonalist in his most recent start in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup. He seems to be peaking at right time, and this stone-cold closer will get the pace to run at in the Classic. He presents plenty of value at double-digit odds!
Toast of New York is my longshot, “wise guy” choice. I'll be using him underneath in his first time on dirt. He ran a troubled second to Shared Belief on the synthetic surface at Del Mar in his last race.
Tonalist, the Belmont Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner, is in the capable hands of trainer Christophe Clement and jockey Joel Rosario and has done no wrong in 2014. Taking the blinkers off in his last race seemingly relaxed him and perhaps helped him avoid an unseated jockey in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. This cross-country shipper will be a great betting proposition and a value bet here.
Candy Boy is ultra-consistent despite traveling all over the country this year and has had tremendous workouts. He will be a big price here, too, and could provide a great boost for exotic bets.
California Chrome: he’s a nice horse with a fun story and arguably the sentimental local favorite. He’s 3-for-4 at Santa Anita, but recent history clearly shows the Triple Crown knocks the vast majority of runners out cold (with a few exceptions, like Curlin). Chrome’s last two races are indicative of that. I could see him hitting the board … maybe third.
Top contenders in order of preference: #11 Tonalist, #8 Zivo, #6 Shared Belief, #12 Candy Boy, #9 Toast of New York, #13 California Chrome
Strategy A
$10 win/place on Tonalist (#11) ($20)
Strategy B
$2 exacta: #11 Tonalist with #8 Zivo ($2)
$3 exacta part wheel: 8 (Zivo), 11 (Tonalist) with 6 (Shared Belief), 8 (Zivo), 11 (Tonalist), 12 (Candy Boy) ($18)
Strategy C
$1 trifecta part wheel: 8,11 with 6,8,11,12 with 6,8,9,11,12,13 ($24)
May the odd be ever in your favor — literally!
$5-million Breeders’ Cup ClassicSaturday, Santa Anita Park, Race 12, 8:35 p.m. ET1 1/4 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds and older
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Odds
1
Prayer for Relief
Irad Ortiz Jr.
Dale Romans
30-1
2
Cigar Street
John Velazquez
Bill Mott
12-1
3
Imperative
Frankie Dettori
George Papaprodromou
30-1
4
Moreno
Javier Castellano
Eric Guillot
20-1
5
V. E. Day
Joe Talamo
Jimmy Jerkens
20-1
6
Shared Belief
Mike Smith
Jerry Hollendorfer
9-5
7
Bayern
Martin Garcia
Bob Baffert
6-1
8
Zivo
Jose Lezcano
Chad Brown
15-1
9
Toast of New York
Jamie Spencer
Jamie Osborne
12-1
10
Footbridge
Rafael Bejarano
Eoin Harty
30-1
11
Tonalist
Joel Rosario
Christophe Clement
5-1
12
Candy Boy
Corey Nakatani
John Sadler
20-1
13
California Chrome
Victor Espinoza
Art Sherman
4-1
14
Majestic Harbor
Tyler Baze
Sean McCarthy
20-1
15AE
Big Cazanova
Elvis Trujillo
Peter Miller