Your Pigskins and Ponies Picks for Oct. 30 - Nov. 2

Welcome to ABR’s Pigskins and Ponies column, where winners play!
Horse racing is my means to an end, and I love the sport like no other, but I admit it, like most of you on a Sunday afternoon in the fall, it’s hard to pull me away from my couch … and NFL RedZone.
I have a wanted sign in Vegas and am feared by fantasy football mavens nationwide, but when it comes to the college game, I chose to punt.
That’s where Derek Cooley comes in. The dude is a loaded gun of university knowledge.
Let’s kick off the football, spring the horses from the gate and pad our bankrolls!
Pro Pigskins – by Joe Kristufek
Too often, in horse racing and sports betting, the public puts too much weight on a horse’s most recent race or a team’s most recent game.
There are usually reasons why a horse, or a team, tosses in a clunker.
The questions ultimately become: what are they capable of on their best day and based on current circumstances? and how close will they come to competing at that level against today’s competition?
Sure the St. Louis Rams beat the Seattle Seahawks in the week prior, but much of that win was circumstantial. As predicted, they returned to form against the underrated Kansas City Chiefs and proved to be no match.
The same can be said for the Jacksonville Jaguars. They beat the Browns the week prior to earn their first win of the season, but reality set back in against the Miami Dolphins and yet another beat down occurred.
The Seahawks defeated the Carolina Panthers late, but failed to cover in another offensively uninspired performance. Perhaps they are NOT who we thought they were after all.
Pro Football Trifecta
Last week: 2-1 (.667); Season Total: 11-13 (.458)
Thursday, Oct. 30
New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at Carolina Panthers
It’s a super short week for the Saints, but that may not be such a bad thing. Their offense clicked on all cylinders on Sunday night, and the defense held its own against a solid Packers offense. Mark Ingram is a much better running back than people give him credit for, and his return to the lineup can help vault the Saints back to contender status.
Sunday, Nov. 2
Miami Dolphins (-2 ½) vs. San Diego Chargers
Two teams heading in different directions. The Chargers have lost two straight. Sure, they have five wins, but only one of those came against a quality opponent. The Dolphins are playing well on both sides of the ball. They’re 1-2 at home, BUT the win came against the Patriots and the two losses were against Kansas City and a close one to Green Bay.
STOUT MIAMI DEFENSE

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Houston Texans (+2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have five wins, but only one of those came on the road and their schedule has been a bit on the soft side. The Texans should be able to control the game on the ground with Arian Foster. They’ll also get plenty of pressure on Nick Foles and probably cause some turnovers.
College Pigskins – by Derek Cooley
Let’s briefly take a look at our plays from a week ago.
Actually, no need to look back, the turnaround has just begun. Let’s continue onward … shall we??
On to the next one ...
College Football Pick Nine – Week Ten
Last week: 6-3 (.667); Season Total: 21-25-1 (.457)
Thursday, Oct. 30
#2 Florida State (-3.5) @ #25 Louisville (Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The more talented FSU squad should take this one, but it’ll be a good one to watch with both teams on ample rest.
Saturday, Nov. 1
#20 West Virginia (+5.5) vs. #7 TCU (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
There’s just something about a fall afternoon in the hills. Watch for an upset in this one, because that’s what college football does.
#9 Kansas State (-14.5) vs. Oklahoma State (8 p.m. ET, ABC)
A tale of two teams going in complete opposite directions … the Wildcats take this one easily.
#11 Georgia (-12.5) vs. Florida (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
GURLEY

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The world’s largest cocktail party, or whatever they claim it to be, just got a little jolt from the optimistic Todd Gurley news. Plus, the Bulldogs have been stellar without him. I like the Dawgs in this one. 
#12 Arizona (+6.5) @ #22 UCLA (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Arizona getting no love at UCLA, a team that need a couple extra frames to beat lowly Colorado. Arizona should win this game. 
#14 Arizona State (-6) vs. #17 Utah (11 p.m. ET, FOX Sports 1)
Both teams coming off big wins, but the Sun Devils in the valley will be tough on Utah. They will keep it close but the hot Sun Devils win by 10.
Wisconsin (-11) @ Rutgers (noon ET, ESPN)
The Badgers are getting their groove back after the whoopin’ they put on Maryland. 
Purdue (+23.5) @ #15 Nebraska (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2)
A rested Purdue team is getting an insane number of points against Nebraska. 
Cal (+2.5) @ Oregon State (10:30 p.m. ET, PAC12 Network)
More of a gut call here. I think it’s two unranked teams that are moving in opposite directions, and I think Cal takes this one. I like the turnaround story. Again, just a gut feeling … I think.
Ponies – by Joe Kristufek
Last Saturday, Confrontation ran a profitable second and we earned a little show dough on Long River, but Path failed to find her way.
We took a digestible loss for the weekend but maintain a recognizable profit overall.
It’s Breeders’ Cup, the weekend horseplayers circle on their calendar and bankroll every year, so we’ll dial it up a notch.
Last week: 3-0-1-1 ($2 WPS * $18 wagered * $16.30 returned)
Season Total: 22-7-4-1 ($2 WPS * $132 wagered * $141.30 returned = $6.42 ROI) 
Friday, Oct. 31
Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita – Arcadia, Calif.
7th Race – $1 million Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1)
#1 Goldencents (morning-line odds 6-5)
The defending champ is every bit as good as he was last year and he should find himself on a loose and lonely lead through reasonable fractions. Take the free space in the multi-race wagers.
GOLDENCENTS

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
8th Race - $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1)
#4 Lady Eli (morning-line odds 6-1)
Bet down to 6-5 in her career debut against nine opponents, this freshman daughter of Divine Park overcame traffic trouble to score a gutsy win. She followed with a visually impressive score, crossing the finish line with plenty left in the tank. She faces some classy Euros but may be up to the task at a square price.
Race 9 - $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1)
#10 Untapable (morning-line odds 5-2)
The sophomore queen faces her elders for the first time, but she should pass this test with flying colors. She had to work for her Cotillion Stakes win last out, but the screws are even tighter for this and she’s flourished since arriving at Santa Anita.
Joe’s complete Friday Breeders’ Cup selections 
Saturday, Nov. 1
Race 6 – $1-million Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (G1)
#6 Leigh Court (morning-line odds 4-1)
We cashed a nice ticket on her in this space in the TCA Stakes and there’s no reason to think she won’t run as well, or even better, than she did that day. With top-flight fillies Judy the Beauty and Artemis Agrotera in the field, we should once again get very fair value on a special filly.
Race 10 – $1.5-million Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1)
#6 Rich Tapestry (morning-line odds 5-1)
How many horses have won in Hong Kong, Dubai and California? This 6-year-old veteran seems to be getting better with age, and his local score three weeks ago was even more impressive than it looks on paper. 
Race 12 – $5-million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1)
#7 Bayern (morning-line odds 6-1)
Popular opinion states that he won’t get the distance, and/or he’ll get caught up in a speed duel. That might be the case, BUT his three most recent wins were as visually impressive as any this season. He’s fast, but he doesn’t get enough credit for his ability to relax. If Moreno goes, he can sit just off of him. If he takes the lead on his own accord, so be it. Can he answer the questions? It’s worth taking 6-1 odds to find out.
Joe’s complete Saturday Breeders’ Cup selections