Live Longshots for Friday’s Breeders’ Cup Races

Startup nation, above winning the Grade 2 With Anticipation Stakes, looks like a great value play in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf on Friday coming off a troubled fourth-place finish. (Photo by Adam Coglianese/NYRA)
At last year’s Breeders’ Cup – also hosted by Santa Anita – 11 horses with double-digit odds finished among the top three in the 14 races that made up the two-day World Championships.
While there’s value to be had in nearly every race, it is these true longshots that can trigger exotic payoffs that will make your year. Serious bettors love the Breeders’ Cup because the competitive nature of the races means there are more of these live “price” horses than you’ll find on a typical program.
Among the 2013 longshots that landed within the trifectas were accomplished horses like Alterite, who won a Grade 1 at Belmont less than two months before she finished a close third in the Filly and Mare Turf at 15.80-1, and Za Approval, who ran second in a pair of Grade 1 events before finishing second to Wise Dan (as he had previously) in the Mile at 18.10-1.
The Breeders’ Cup races are so deep that even very good horses in great form get overlooked by bettors who are drawn to star power and last-out victories. Alterite turned a trifecta topped by the favorite and second choice into a surprising three-digit payoff of $103 for $1. Later, the trifecta that included the obvious odds-on winner Wise Dan still paid $210 for $1 if you threw in longshots like Za Approval and Silentio – who had been Grade 1-placed the summer before going off at 38.20-1 in the Mile.
The other type of Breeders’ Cup longshot is the rapidly improving 2-year-old. While the winners of Breeders’ Cup 2-year-old races tend to be surprisingly formful, the second- and third-place positions can be rounded out by any number of well-bred horses that are still developing, or simply haven’t had many opportunities around two turns.
With all of that in mind, here is a selection of my favorite double-digit morning-line horses – one for each race – to use in your exotics this weekend (check back Friday for Saturday’s touts).
STARTUP NATION (12-1, Juvenile Turf) – Won a Grade 2 at Saratoga in his second start but could be dismissed by some bettors who don’t like his fourth-place finish last time out at Belmont, or generally (ill-advisedly) downgrade New York-breds. This is perhaps the most accomplished American-based runner in the field, but a price will still be had facing so many promising Europeans.
GOLDEN TICKET (15-1, Dirt Mile) – Let’s not overthink this. Last year, he came charging from 15 lengths out of it to run a strong second behind Goldencents on what turned out to be one of the most notoriously speed-favoring racing days in history. With eight starts in the past eight months, he appears on paper to be a sound and dependable horse. There is more than enough speed to give him a setup as good as he got last year, which is all he needs to fire once again. In 2013, he went off at 7.20-1; on Friday’s morning line he is more than twice that.
GOLDEN TICKET WINNING LEFT BANK STAKES

Photo by Chelsea Durand/NYRA
LADY ZUZU (15-1, Juvenile Fillies Turf) – She debuted sprinting at Saratoga, then failed to show up on a sloppy track in a Grade 1 race. Neither of those races is very relevant to the one at hand. What does matter is that last time out she went two turns on turf for the first time, battled for the lead, and drew off to win by more than six lengths. Her trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, has sprung more upsets in major stakes than any man ever. Her pedigree and her purchase price ($1,225,000) suggest she was meant for elite races.
UNBRIDLED FOREVER (20-1, Distaff) – Trainer Dallas Stewart has a knack for getting his horses ready to run on the main-event days. He has trained two consecutive Kentucky Derby runners-up that went off at boxcar odds – Golden Soul (34.50-1 in 2013) and Commanding Curve (37.80-1 in 2014) – plus a 47.10-1 Kentucky Oaks winner, Lemons Forever (2006), that is the dam of this filly. Shocking the world is in the blood of both horse and trainer.