Predicteform Analysis of the Breeders’ Cup Classic

Will Shared Belief's winning streak come to an end in the Breeders' Cup Classic on Saturday? Check out Predicteform's horse-by-horse analysis. (Photo of Shared Belief winning the Pacific Classic by Eclipse Sportswire)
The Breeders' Cup Classic is run at 1 ¼ miles for horses 3 years old and older for a purse of $5-million and often determines the Eclipse Award winner as Horse of the Year.
The Classic goes as the 12th race on Saturday, Nov. 1 with post time scheduled for 8:35 p.m. ET. The race will be televised live on NBC as part of its main-event coverage from 8-9 p.m. ET as the highlight of the 2014 Breeders’ Cup.
Get your FREE Pace Figures and Past Performances for the Classic.
Prayer for Relief (30-1)
Here's what we had to say about him prior to his last race, the Woodward Stakes:
The oldest runner in the field at six, Prayer for Relief has career earnings of $1.85-million, the highest in the field. He has gone off at 48-1 and 25-1 odds in his last two starts and while he did finish fourth and third, which could be considered “out-running” his odds, neither race was impressive from a Pace Figure perspective. His most recent final figure of 75.2 was regression off a 76.9 effort on July 5. He showed a consistent ability to run a CPT (Cyclical Pace Top, which is when an older horse runs his fastest 4f figure as compared with the 10 previous races while putting in a solid final figure). This pattern should have shown his last race on Aug. 2, but instead he regressed.
His Woodward figure of 75/69.3 was a slight improvement and more of a surprise than not. It looks to be a foundational final figure and one you would expect him to stay above.

The Play: Mega-Longshot – His draw, which is deep down and inside, at 1 ¼ miles with no speed and a long run into the turn smells trouble. Sure to be 40-1 or higher, he should be a consideration for fourth if playing superfectas.
Cigar Street (12-1)
Making his third start off a year-and-a-half layoff, Cigar Street makes the big jump from overnight stakes and Grade 3 competition to the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Classic.
By the looks of it, he showed potential, running against the likes of Take Charge Indy and Pants on Fire in the Grade 3 Skip Away Stakes before being sidelined.
His two-race comeback was highlighted by his last out 79.5/70.2 against a much weaker field at Churchill Downs, where he faced only five competitors and was used hard in the stretch. That 79.5 final is a lifetime top as well as a seven-point jump forward.
His dam, Arcadiana, has had other decent runners and has been bred back to just average stallions. Note, he goes back to John Velazquez, who rode him to three wins in 2012-2013.

The Play: Regressor – Everything points to regression as he ascends to face the best dirt horses in the country, though, and this is a big though, if he is capable of running back to the same final figure, he could be a shocker. 
Imperative (30-1)
The winner of the Charles Town Classic Stakes, Imperative can attribute $900,000 of his $1.3-million in purse money to this one Grade 2 win on a six-furlong track. Otherwise, he is zero for eight in 2014 with a couple of thirds in Grade 1 company.
His Pace Figures are rather erratic, moving from a 78.9 on the synthetic surface at Del Mar to a 73.1 while finishing fifth in the Awesome Again, beaten soundly by Shared Belief.

The Play: Too Slow – In over his head.
Moreno (20-1)
This hard-trying runner has shown no fear as Moreno has taken on the best horses on the East Coast month in and month out in 2014. He has a win and a second in his last three Grade 1 attempts. And while he only has three lifetime wins from 22 starts (and earnings of $1,834,940), he has won at an average of 8-1, while running second at an average of 11-1.
Javier Castellano, the leading rider in the country, has replaced Moreno’s former jockey Junior Alvarado.
Moreno is known as a one-trick, front-running speedball, pushed as much by his trainer as the jockey on board. However, the move to Castellano is curious. He is known for his stalking style and, if he can get a grip of Moreno and let him sit just a bit off the other front-runners, his chances could improve.

The Play: Longshot - He was putting up consistent 77s since the start of the year with an occasional 73 regression. If he can get back to the 77 range with the positive impact of Castellano and a stalking trip, he could be interesting at 20 -1 morning line.
V. E. Day (20-1)
Our top pick in the Travers Stakes, here is what we had to say about V. E. Day prior to that race on Aug. 23:
From a Pace Figure perspective, he is on a strong Form Cycle Pattern. Notice the 72.2 REV on May 10 (Reversal Pattern is the first time a dirt runner has a higher final figure than 4f figure, indicating a maturing horse who has figured out how to manage his energy), followed by a 74.9/59.5 (lifetime top) and most recently a 73.0/60.7 NPT. The New Pace Top indicates a runner who ran his fastest 4f figure while keeping his final figure within a few points of his lifetime top. One of the better indicators of future success, V. E. Day's series of his last three races looks like he could be sitting on a lifetime top.
V. E. Day clicked at 19.50-1 in the Travers off that NPT, but his last-out sixth-place finish showed real regression, down six points in his final figure from 77.4 to 71.7.

The Play: Regressor – It's unlikely for a return to a figure in the high 70s, which he would need to compete. 
Shared Belief  (9-5)
Undefeated lifetime, Shared Belief started his 3-year-old season three weeks after the Kentucky Derby in late May 2014. He dominated his competition, winning by open lengths until his most recent start in the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes. He went for the lead and had to take back, laying wide the entire race. He lost approximately six lengths in that trip but was still able to get his nose down at the finish line.
While most are looking at this as a strong prep and effort coming into the Classic, we are of the opinion that is what a 1-5 shot should do against a field of six other below-average Grade 1 competitors.
Turning to his Pace Figures, he made a huge jump from 71 to 79.9 followed by a 79.8. These two near 80s can be called “paired-up tops,” meaning a horse ran back-to-back lifetime tops (within .2 of each other). Regression was expected, and it came, back to a 76.4, but in the effort he ran his second lifetime NPT Form Cycle Pattern. NPT indicates a runner who runs its fastest lifetime 4f figure while not exceeding his lifetime top by much. Normally considered a very strong pattern, notice the prior 4f top of 73.1. Empirically correct, this increase of .1 is by no means the type of NPT you want to run to the window to back, especially at 9-5 morning-line odds.
Speaking of odds, the Santa Anita oddsmaker clearly has a West Coast bias as his 9-5 morning-line number will attract even more money that he would at 2-1 or 5-2. Pool begets pool, money goes where the money goes, expect his odds to be even lower by post time.

The Play: Contender – The race could shape up to his liking, but he certainly will be over bet, which makes him difficult to consider on top.
Bayern (6-1)
Here's what we had to say about Bayern before his last race, the Pennsylvania Derby:
The 81.8 and 81.2 final figures in his two most recent races are considered “paired-up tops (PUT),” meaning he ran two lifetime tops back to back, which is not necessarily a point from which a horse can move forward. Expected to be the race favorite and the fastest out of the gate, the competition in here is tougher than the Haskell, and with paired-up tops the value needed is not going to be there as in his previous two wins. Bayern knows only one way to the winner's circle and that is on the lead. Following his not-surprising collapse in the Travers, trainer Bob Baffert brings him back to California, gives him just over two weeks rest and ships him back to the East Coast for the fifth consecutive time. This transcontinental trip for two workouts has got to take a toll on even Grade 1 winners (which he is). Looking at his Pace Figures, and as mentioned above, his regression from a pair of 81 final figures to a 69 was not a shocker. He does cut back in distance to his preferred 1 1/8 miles, which will help carry his speed. The question is whether he can return to his form of an 81 (or close) final figure.
Not only did Bayern return to his prior form, he put up a final figure of 84.2, the highest figure of any runner in the field, ever. He did it within himself as his 4f and 6f figures were 70.7 and 73.7, showing he managed his energy well, even on the lead, all the while taking Chrome behind the woodshed in the process. The question is, can he continue that torrid pace while stretching out to 10 furlongs, where he is zero for two at the distance? His post-position is ideal as jockey Martin Garcia can see both the inner and outer horses at the break, which gives another strong reason why he will go to the lead.

The Play: Regressor - Wow, Bayern is a very tough horse to read. If he runs to the level he is capable of, he will win, but based on his recent final figures, regression is more likely.
Zivo (15-1)
Here’s what we had to say about Zivo prior to his last start in the Jockey Club Gold Cup:
Zivo not only went off at short odds in the Woodward (reducing his value), but he regressed a couple of points as well while running a 75.7/64.4. This is his second race following a SOFT Form Cycle Pattern. On both prior occasions (looking at the second race following a SOFT Pattern), there was a significant forward move of six points. Even cutting that 6-point improvement in half, we could see Zivo progress to a final figure in the high 70s.
Zivo raced well in the Gold Cup after having his forward progress stopped as Wicked Strong dropped his jockey. Zivo’s rider, Jose Lezcano, had to pull up hard or he would have trampled him. He recovered nicely and finished a solid second with a final figure 75.3. The back-to-back 75s his last two starts looks like a foundation level for Zivo, and it would not be surprising to see him run another similar final figure.

The Play: Too Slow – Looks a bit too slow based on his current form cycle pattern. 
Toast of New York (12-1)
A handy winner of the $2-million United Arab Emirates Derby in Dubai in March, Toast of New York has two races stateside. His first race in the U.S. was on the turf going 1 ¼ miles, and he put up a 74.1/55.1 Final/4f figure. He clearly needed this race after a lifetime effort a few months prior.
His last start was at Del Mar where he raced on the all-weather Polytrack, a similar surface to that which he won the Dubai race and was 3 for 4 lifetime. Toast of New York had a good stalking trip and ran second (beaten 3 lengths) to Shared Belief.
In the process, he put up a 78.7/73.7, in what winds up being a nice 4-point forward move with a much bigger 4f figure.
As mentioned by David Meah in our Webinar on Thursday night, he is a big colt who looks great on the track now and is training very well.

The Play: Fringe Contender – Potential for forward progress, he has value at 12-1 morning line and very likely 15-1 or above by post time.
Footbridge (30-1)
A runner who has slowly moved up the ranks, faces Grade 1 runners for the second time. He ran a decent third to Shared Belief last out, which was unexpected as he made the big jump to Grade 1 competition.
His final figure was 74.8, a half-point from his lifetime top.

The Play: Too Slow – He would need his lifetime best effort and improve 4 points to just hit the board, extremely unlikely, especially given post position 10.
Tonalist (5-1)
Quietly, Tonalist has become one of the best horses in the country. He was our top pick in the Belmont Stakes and, as expected, he knocked off California Chrome in convincing style.
Following the Belmont, he has shown up every month to race in Grade 1 and 2 affairs against the best 3-year-olds in the country. And, remarkably all of this has been done without a final figure over 77.
Following the 77 at the Belmont Stakes, he put up the following three final figures: 75.8 – 76.3 – 75.2. The 76.3 was also a NPT (New Pace Top Form Cycle Pattern) that led into his SOFT win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (75.8). The SOFT Form Cycle Pattern in the Gold Cup indicates a horse who won the race with a final and 4f figure that was less than his previous start. Actually, that 75.2 ties the second-lowest final figure of his career and Tonalist still finds a way to win a $1-million, Grade 1 race.
Visually speaking, his last race was under-the-radar good. He was bottled up midway through the stretch, and jockey Joel Rosario swung out to the three path from the rail and cruised to the lead without needing the whip.
One more important note, trainer Christophe Clement took off the blinkers last race and Tonalist did a much better job of managing his energy, conserving the big move until the stretch. The two knocks o the horse are: trainer Clement is 0 for 23 in Breeders’ Cup races lifetime and it is his first career start on the West Coast, where there is a shared belief that the Classic winner needs a big turn of foot and not a sit-and-go style of racing.

The Play: Contender – With all the West Coast hype on Shared Belief and Chrome, there will be tremendous value on Tonalist at 6-1 or above.
Candy Boy (20-1)
Here’s what we had to say about Candy Boy prior to his last race in the Pennsylvania Derby:
After his Kentucky Derby disappointment, Candy Boy has run two good races, including finishing a distant second to Shared Belief. His most recent West Virginia Derby effort was good, although it did take him almost the full length of the stretch to get by Vicar's in Trouble (who came back to dominate the Super Derby in a Final Pace Figure time of 77, a very good final figure at notoriously slow surface). Jockey Joel Rosario gets the mount, a positive jockey change, especially in a graded stakes race. From a Pace Figure perspective, he most recently ran a 75/72.3 NPT Form Cycle Pattern (New Pace Top – fastest 4f figure of his life combined with a final figure that is within 4-6 points of his lifetime top). His race prior was a 78 Final Figure at Los Alamitos, a decent figure up against Shared Belief.
Candy Boy ran about as we expected while putting up a lifetime top of 81, although it looks like all the runners ran lifetime figures in the Penn Derby, which is an indication that they all could be in reality a few points less.

The Play: Too Slow – Candy Boy looks more like a Grade 2 competitor.
California Chrome (4-1)
Here’s what we had to say about his expected performance in his last race, the Pennsylvania Derby:
Chrome has taken an interesting path back to the track after being turned out (horse vacation) for two months, trainer Art Sherman has worked him on a perfect, seven-day pattern with a couple bullet workouts sprinkled in. He traveled well back to Philly looking to return to his glory as the media coverage awaits at PARX Racing. He is sitting on 105 days rest or coming off a 105-day layoff, depending on how you view it, in either case he's had twice as much time between races as any other runner in this field.
There is no question that on his best day Chrome should dominate this crew. He is however, from a Pace Figure perspective, coming off a five-point decline in his Final Figure with his lowest 4 furlong figure lifetime. There is some excuse given the 1 ½-mile distance, but nonetheless, stepped on or not, his Belmont Stakes race was regression.
Not surprisingly, Chrome did regress, but this time in rather spectacular fashion. He finished sixth of eight and burned a ton of money as the 4-5 favorite.
Fast-forward 41 days and we sit here a day before the Breeders’ Cup Classic wondering which Chrome will show up. The buzz on the backside says he looks like the Chrome from Derby time. He’s got a four-workout pattern perfectly spaced every seven days leading up to the race.
Still not sure what to do, let’s revert back to where the roots of Predicteform were founded – Form Cycle Patterns. There is no reason to think that Chrome will be able to get back to his top level from the Triple Crown run. Horse peak and valley, and his two races leading into the Breeders’ Cup were not very good. The oddsmaker at Santa Anita is our best friend as he hung a 4-1 morning-line number on Chrome. As the second choice based on his name and Derby performance alone, Chrome will take a ton of action and probably be 3-1 (or 7-2) by post time.

The Play: Regressor – Nothing in his form indicates progression and the outside post will be a nuisance as well. It does, from a Pace Figure perspective, look like the shine is off the chrome.
Majestic Harbor (20-1)
A distant fourth and sixth to Shared Belief in his two most recent races, Majestic Harbor draws the 14 post, considered the parking lot as they come out of the shute down the long straight to the first turn.
His Pace Figures have settled in the 75 range, which is not strong enough against these Grade 1 runners.

The Play: Too Slow – Even if he had a fighting chance, the post position draw did him in on Monday.
$5-million Breeders' Cup ClassicSaturday, Santa Anita Park, Race 12, 8:35 p.m. ET1 1/4 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds and older 

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Odds

1

Prayer for Relief

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Dale Romans

30-1

2

Cigar Street

John Velazquez

Bill Mott

12-1

3

Imperative

Frankie Dettori

George Papaprodromou

30-1

4

Moreno

Javier Castellano

Eric Guillot

20-1

5

V. E. Day

Joe Talamo

Jimmy Jerkens

20-1

6

Shared Belief 

Mike Smith

Jerry Hollendorfer

9-5

7

Bayern

Martin Garcia

Bob Baffert

6-1

8

Zivo

Jose Lezcano

Chad Brown

15-1

9

Toast of New York

Jamie Spencer

Jamie Osborne

12-1

10

Footbridge

Rafael Bejarano

Eoin Harty

30-1

11

Tonalist

Joel Rosario

Christophe Clement

5-1

12

Candy Boy

Corey Nakatani

John Sadler

20-1

13

California Chrome

Victor Espinoza

Art Sherman

4-1

14

Majestic Harbor

Tyler Baze

Sean McCarthy

20-1

15AE

Big Cazanova

Elvis Trujillo

Peter Miller