Bram’s Take: Classic Way More Than Rome v. Chrome

Bayern, above winning the Pennsylvania Derby, has shown he can beat the best when he is at his best. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
I work in a business where catchy labels sell. So on a weekend where we are debating in the sports world if Manning-Brady is the best sports (let alone football) rivalry ever, Shared Belief’s long-awaited battle with California Chrome feels historic. And it’s got everything.
Shared Belief is undefeated, 7-for-7, and his last win was at this track in the Awesome Again Stakes. He was indeed awesome, again. He’s got the new King of California (no offense to Chrome) training him — I was told that’s how people on the rail are referring to Jerry Hollendorfer these days. He’s got the uber-confident owner Jim Rome opining on a year few Thoroughbreds have ever had. What is “the clones” take on all this: I don’t know; ask Jim, he seems to speak their entertaining version of pig Latin sports lexicon.
On the opposite end of the spectrum is California Chrome. He’s Halloween and Christmas all wrapped into one. Steve Coburn is the utterly likable, (ignoring his post-Belmont rants here) 10-gallon hat wearing everyman who went into his genetic lab and produced Frankenstein. And then, he became Santa Claus during the Kentucky Derby. The little guy gets the roses and accolades. The Clonies must certainly respect the Chromies. They have so much in common, including reminding everyone else who the true dumb asses are.
And like Shared Belief, California Chrome is a West Coast gem — his routs in the San Felipe Stakes and Santa Anita Derby thrust him into the shocking role of Derby favorite.
CHROME WINNING THE PREAKNESS

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
So, it’s all set up for the showdown of all showdowns right? Ali-Frazier. Arnie and Jack. Chrissie and Martina. Peyton and Tom. Wrong. This race has Tiger Woods, Joe Montana, Mike Tyson and Serena Williams in it, too.
It’s a classic all right — a battle royale worthy of WWE hype with Rome playing the role of Rowdy Roddy Piper and Coburn as Hacksaw Jim Duggan. Their problem is that someone else might end up being the Breeders’ Cup version of Hulk Hogan.
1. Prayer for Relief — He’s won nearly $2-million in purse money but he’s done it while winning only eight of his 33 all-time races. In beer-league-softball terms, he’s a ringer. And he may be an issue if he summons a performance from the past. But his recent past performances say he’s not of this class anymore. You can’t toss him, but you can’t pick him to spring an upset either, not with the battle royale around him.
2. Cigar Street — Are we really just going to ax a consistent winner like this with Hall of Famers Johnny V on his back and Bill Mott in his corner? No. But this is a huge jump in class, so we don’t know if he can do it. This is a leap of faith, but when the morning-line odds only put an optimistic 12-1 price on him, my eyes were opened. Like Prayer for Relief, my gut says he’s not the one to hit the wire first, but I’m wary of him. He’s in my exotics because I feel like those who know a lot more than me are hinting he’s got the goods.
3. Imperative — Toot own horn time - I called him as my show pony in the Pacific Classic Stakes and he hit the board at 38-1. But Kent Desormeuax isn’t on him this time, and his race following the Del Mar performance was a dud. This field is way deeper than the one in late August at Del Mar. My guess is he’s middle of the pack at best considering how many strong closers are around him.
4. Moreno — Short of his one dud at Belmont back in July, here is what we know: this guy will be out front. Staying there doesn’t seem like much of a possibility. The 20-1 odds are a tempting number, though, to at least assume he’ll be factoring in the pace. Is it that long because he faltered so badly in this race last fall? Maybe. This distance has proven to be an eighth of a mile too long for him, so I assume he just misses the board, but it’s nowhere near a certainty.
5. V. E. Day — He was never in any kind of race like the Travers Stakes when he won the race as a longshot. And then, this East Coaster bummed out the moderate support he got in his next try at Belmont in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. I'm more inclined to believe what happened at Saratoga was the best he can give and he won't replicate it again. Staying away.
6. Shared Belief  — He’s not only 7-for-7, he’s increased his lead in the final furlong in all but one of his races. But it’s the one close call he has had that should be somewhat alarming — his last race. Did he peak at Del Mar in the Pacific Classic? The race set up perfectly for him to do what he did. Game On Dude was the only real speed contender with him in the field. And there was a perfectly placed Argentinean rabbit that got the Dude to bite early. Dude ran out of gas, Rome got to head to the winner’s circle. This won’t happen again. California Chrome (if back to Triple Crown form), Tonalist, Bayern and others figure to make this stretch run traffic filled. Mike Smith’s ride (and that seems almost never in question) will be the key. Can he find room and hit the button at the right time to be there in the end? We’ll see. Obviously, he’s a contender.
SHARED BELIEF’S LAST RACE WAS TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
7. Bayern — At the Preakness and the Travers, he was a complete no show. The other three races in his last 5 starts — big bombs. He ran at Santa Anita in early February with Gary Stevens on him and won an allowance race by 15 lengths! He has two wins at Santa Anita, so there is no track question here. The reality is if he is on his game, he can easily win and he becomes extraordinarily attractive at 6-1 or better. He pulled away at Parx Racing in the Pennsylvania Derby in his last outing, finishing a mile and an eighth in a track-record of 1:46.96. You won’t see a more formidable time to catch. The question seems whether he feels like racing, and I have yet to figure out how to talk to a horse.
8. Zivo — He is willing and competitive. He’s a huge closer and he made a late run at Tonalist in the Jockey Club Gold Cup in September. He has the feel of a horse who is just one small, tiny step below the class of Tonalist, Bayern, Chrome, and Shared Belief, but that doesn’t mean he won’t pull this off. There is no way to call an upset here being that his last two runs (best speed figures of his career) were not enough to win, but at 15-1 he’s in the exotics for sure.
9. Toast of New York — Someone is going to have to convince me that he is a contender here. The Pacific Classic field wasn’t strong enough to warrant looking at his second-place finish behind Shared Belief there to deserve support. He’s a 12-1 sucker bet. These runners that ship over rarely seem to be the right side to be on in a race of this magnitude. I’ll let others take their chances with him.
10. Footbridge — As of May, he was still running in mid-tier allowance races. His one Grade 1 stakes race was a recent third-place finish where he lost ground in late stretch. He does doesn’t feel like he’s in the same class. No thanks.
11. Tonalist — The longer the race, in general, the better. He won the Belmont Stakes, backed it up with his best performance at the same track in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. But no one is toasting anyone in New York on Saturday. So, does this East Coaster have the goods on the west side? Obviously, he’s a factor. Obviously, he has the times that it takes to win. Having only raced eight times, his best could still be yet to come. I just don’t feel it. Total gut call, but I cannot pick him to win.
12. Candy Boy — Gig is up pal; you are not who we thought you were. Really good horse, not a great one. He’ll probably have a nice, long career collecting cash in lower-tier stakes races, but this ain’t his bag baby. I hate giving up on Candy Boy on Halloween, but I don’t like tricks this time of year, I like treats.
13. California Chrome — The ride always has to come to an end. But a crashing thud? Is anyone surprised he didn’t win the Belmont? As Coburn so inappropriately put it, the game is not set up for success there. So we all understandably are giving Chrome a pass for failing to win the Triple Crown. But he took three months off and when he came back he’d lost his push. That button that Espinoza pressed in the spring was faulty in the fall. So now what? Is Chrome a great champion who fell out of his prime as quickly as he ascended into it? Or was the Pennsylvania Derby an off day? Coburn likes to talk, maybe he’ll tell me before I make my decision at the window.
14. Majestic Harbor — Every big race offers a horse that I’ll have an illogical soft spot for. In this one, it’s this guy. This is the home track for Majestic Harbor, six of his last seven races came at this track. Go back to June and check out the Grade 1 Gold Cup run.
MAJESTIC HARBOR WINS GOLD CUP AT SANTA ANITA

Courtesy of Breeders' Cup
Fast early splits kept him six lengths of the pace. He fired early to the lead and then blew away the field. This horse can and probably will alter the tote board on Saturday. Yes, I'm troubled by his last two runs. Yes, I understand he might not be very good anymore, and the arguments I made against other entries are the exact same as I’m making in favor of jumping all over this horse. I see 20-1 and I say this is his track and, even better, the majority of the entries on the outside are not the types that go for a quick pace push. It means jockey Tyler Baze shouldn’t have to struggle to get mid-pack early. This takes a little deft decision-making about placement, but I anticipate he’ll get where he wants to be and then we find out if he’s a contender or a dud. My money is on him across the board.
15. Big Cazanova — For a litany of reasons, I'm not even bothering.
So do we get the stretch run everyone wants to see? Shared Belief and California Chrome making simultaneous moves from just off the lead as they turn for home and give us a stretch run for the ages. That depends if either are still the Usain Bolt of the horse game. Both have shown signs of wearing down (Chrome’s signs are more pronounced). What if neither have the final push in them (a distinct possibility)? Then what? Now, we are talking about the kind of classic I tell my kids about, the one where I hit the trifecta with two 20-1 shots on that board. If Bayern is 6-1 or better I’m putting him on top. If Majestic Harbor remains 20-1 or better, I'm putting him on top, too.
The pick: Bayern over Cigar Street, Shared Belief, Zivo, Tonalist, Calfornia Chrome and Majestic Harbor.
I’m going win/place/show on Majestic Harbor for value.
$5-million Breeders' Cup ClassicSaturday, Santa Anita Park, Race 12, 8:35 p.m. ET1 1/4 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds and older 

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Odds

1

Prayer for Relief

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Dale Romans

30-1

2

Cigar Street

John Velazquez

Bill Mott

12-1

3

Imperative

Frankie Dettori

George Papaprodromou

30-1

4

Moreno

Javier Castellano

Eric Guillot

20-1

5

V. E. Day

Joe Talamo

Jimmy Jerkens

20-1

6

Shared Belief 

Mike Smith

Jerry Hollendorfer

9-5

7

Bayern

Martin Garcia

Bob Baffert

6-1

8

Zivo

Jose Lezcano

Chad Brown

15-1

9

Toast of New York

Jamie Spencer

Jamie Osborne

12-1

10

Footbridge

Rafael Bejarano

Eoin Harty

30-1

11

Tonalist

Joel Rosario

Christophe Clement

5-1

12

Candy Boy

Corey Nakatani

John Sadler

20-1

13

California Chrome

Victor Espinoza

Art Sherman

4-1

14

Majestic Harbor

Tyler Baze

Sean McCarthy

20-1

15AE

Big Cazanova

Elvis Trujillo

Peter Miller