Live Longshots for Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Races

Zivo, above winning the Suburban Handicap in July, could surprise in Saturday's Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park. (Photo by NYRA)
Friday’s four Breeders’ Cup races did not feature any surprising upsets. However, it wouldn’t be a Breeders’ Cup without some big prices along the way.
You can practically hear the ticking, as it is only a matter of time before a true longshot surprises, and the anticipation is only building with this succession of favorites. We’re talking about a matter of when, not if. Be prepared and keep firing so that when the right longshot hits, you’re in a position to profit.
As we did Friday, below are my top picks among the horses with double-digit morning-line odds in each race.
These are not the most likely winners, but they are the entrants with the most potential to trigger massive payoffs. It only takes one of these to make your day a profitable one!
Danette (Juvenile Fillies, 20-1) – The field’s lone maiden tested Grade 1 company at Santa Anita in September and ran a solid third behind two of this race’s top choices. That was her first time racing on dirt and some improvement seems logical with that under her belt. Trainer Keith Desormeaux has improved his horses in the last few years and is best known for pulling off a shocker in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes in 2013 at Fair Grounds with 135-1 outsider Ive Struck a Nerve.
ABACO (Filly and Mare Turf, 15-1) – My favorite longshots to play in general are those that have been competitive at a certain level but haven’t found the breakthrough win yet. Abaco has consistently been in the mix against the best fillies and mares of the East Coast, yet still seeks her first Grade 1 win. In 11 graded stakes overall though, she’s only missed the board three times. This is a beautifully bred, talented mare for famed Distaff-winning connections (Personal Ensign) who does not need to improve to compete here, and a career-best effort would put her right there with the best in the world.
ABACO WINNING BALLSTON SPA STAKES AT SARATOGA

Photo by NYRA
Better Lucky (Filly and Mare Sprint, 15-1) – Most of her career has been focused on the turf, so her ability on the main track is not yet established. Her July win at Saratoga came in a minor, restricted stakes race, but the fillies she beat in that four-horse field were legit top-quality runners. The mare that bested her last time out is a fashionable choice in the race before this one, so if Dayatthespa runs well in the Filly and Mare Turf, you might want to give this one an even longer look.
Sweet Swap (Turf Sprint, 12-1) – The home team has an edge in this race, more so than others, as the downhill turf course at Santa Anita is a quirky specialty. Sweet Swap’s mastery of this course has been his claim to fame. Many bettors will be suspicious of his long layoff but trainer John Sadler has been pointing to this race long enough that I see no reason they won’t be fit enough for it.
Souper Colossal (Juvenile, 12-1) – If he is dismissed by bettors, it will only be because he hasn’t tested other top juveniles before. But you only have to watch the races to see the speed and talent here. Trainer Eddie Plesa Jr. let him work five furlongs in a very fast time Monday. Juveniles tend to run to form more than older horses, and I would be surprised if this colt isn’t prominent.
Hardest Core (Turf, 10-1) – This gelding’s shocker in the Arlington Million was no fluke. The vanquished that day included last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Magician, who would have been among the favorites in here but was scratched a few days ago. He’s been managed with patience by little-known trainer Edward Graham. The obscure connections and limited number of starts mean this one won’t jump out on paper to those that haven’t followed him this year, but he is on schedule and looked great this week.
HARDEST CORE WINNING ARLINGTON MILLION

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Mico Margarita (Sprint, 15-1) – Many in this field only know one way to run, which is to fly out of the gate on the lead and keep going as far as they can. While it wouldn’t be surprising to see one of them carry that speed all the way, a horse with some tactical speed would seem to have an advantage. This one has been making money throughout the Midwest and is in top form. Trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Rosie Napravnik had big days Friday, and the trainer, especially, tends to win in bunches.
Kaigun (Mile, 20-1) – Sure, he only has two wins in nine starts this year, which is not the profile you look for to win a $2-million race. But that’s why we’ll get the kind of big price we want. He’s tussled with the best in the U.S. most of this year. He finished less than a length behind Horse of the Year Wise Dan in a Grade 1 race and ran second to Real Solution in the Grade 1 Manhattan Stakes, which is annually one of our country’s toughest turf races.
Zivo (Classic, 15-1) – Even on a week when nearly every horse on the grounds looks exceptional, Zivo stood out in his few gallops at Santa Anita. Trainer Chad Brown is typically very understated, but even he couldn’t help but rave about how well this one’s doing. He might be a cut below the marquee names but for value in the exotics a “buzz” horse appearing primed to run his best is exactly what you want.