Keeneland November: Same But Different

If you happen to be an analyst of business, the fact that our industry's sales results are reported by the sales company (first Fasig-Tipton, then Keeneland, in this case) can be a little misleading.

The November Sale, the one-day Fasig-Tipton auction, cataloged 250 horses (up 23% from last year) and grossed $89,473,000 (up 20% from 2017). Then Keeneland held its 12-day November Breeding Stock Sale with 4,513 horses cataloged (up 9% from last year), which grossed $188,508,500—down 7% from 2017. The market is 18 times bigger at Keeneland; in one day Fasig-Tipton sold 5% of the horses sold in the Kentucky November sales for 32% of all the money spent over 13 days. What gives?

Combined, the 13 days of selling amounted to 4,763 horses cataloged, 9% more than last year's 4,350 between the two sales. This year 2,678 horses sold—56.2% of those cataloged and 5% more than last year, when 2,539 horses sold. The combined 2018 Kentucky November mixed sale gross was $277,981,500, six-tenths of 1% higher than last year's combined gross of $276,221,700. The 2018 average was $103,801, a 4% drop from last year's $108,791.

On the whole, then, the 2018 Kentucky mixed sale market returned very similar figures to 2017. But there were two very distinct market tiers—'the top' and 'the rest'—and they behaved somewhat differently. 

To a large extent—much more so than yearling catalogs—mixed sale results are dependent on the number and caliber of top-class horses actually offered for sale. Last year, for example, there were three absolutely world-class fillies/mares sold in November for over $5 million each: Songbird ($9.5 million), Tepin ($8 million), and Stellar Wind ($6 million)—for a total of $23.5 million. This year Lady Aurelia, at $7.5 million, was the only one to bring over $5 million. Even if you add in the next two highest-selling mares, Stopchargingmaria ($4.4 million), and Lady Eli ($4.2 million), the top three last year brought $7.4 million more than the top three this year. So there was a 31% drop in gross for the top three prices.

There was also a 19% drop in the number of horses bringing $1 million-plus, from 37 last year to 30 this year. If we define the top tier of the market as Fasig-Tipton plus Keeneland Book 1, it's pretty clear how that top tier declined: Keeneland shrunk its Book 1 from 367 horses over two days to 250 cataloged over one.

Fasig-Tipton's catalog grew by 47 horses, but combined, the number of top-tier horses cataloged declined 12%, from 570 to 500, and the number actually sold declined by 18%, from 316 last year to 260 this year. The combined gross declined 8%, from $158,191,000 in 2017 to $145,893,000 in 2018. The average for those top-tier horses sold did rise 11%, from $500,620 last year to $561,127, but the decline in the other metrics looks a lot more significant than the nominal rise in average, caused to a large extent by the decreased number of horses sold.

What also looks significant are further gains in the top tier of the mixed sales by Fasig-Tipton at the expense of Keeneland Book 1. In 2017, Fasig-Tipton had 35% of the horses cataloged between its sale and the two-day Keeneland Book 1. They sold 36% of the horses, for 47% of the combined gross, and 51% (19 of 37) of the seven-figure sales. In 2018, Fasig-Tipton cataloged 50% of the horses, sold 54%, for 61% of the combined gross, and 73% (22 of 30) of the horses sold for $1 million-plus. 

In fact, at the close of business Nov. 16, Keeneland reported a 7% decline in gross, and an 11% decline in average for their November sale overall. But the fact is the top tier at Keeneland was down 32% in number cataloged and 33% in gross, which was in fact over $27.5 million. The rest of the sale was actually up:

KEENELAND BOOK 2—END

2018: 4,263 cataloged; 2,418 sold (56.7%); gross $132,086,300; average $54,621

2017: 3,780 cataloged; 2,223 sold (58.8%); gross $118,025,700; average $53,093

Number cataloged: +12%; number sold: +8%; gross: +12%; average: +3%

So, again, when we add it all up this way, Fasig-Tipton was up $15.2 million; Keeneland Books 2-7 were up $14 million; and Keeneland Book 1 was down $27.5 million. Looking at it another way, the top tier of Fasig-Tipton plus Keeneland Book 1 was down $12.3 million, while the rest of the market was actually up by $14 million. 

WEANLING/COVERING SIRES

Pioneerof the Nile , sire of the $1.9 million filly at Fasig-Tipton who was the only seven-figure weanling at the Kentucky sales, was the leading sire by weanling average with six sold for an average of $617,500 (the other five averaged $361,000), while Tapit  had five weanlings average $516,000. Medaglia d'Oro  had six weanlings average $368,333 and War Front  had just two sell, which averaged $355,000. Curlin  had five average $325,000, and Into Mischief  had 13 weanlings sell for an average of $281,692.

Other sires with 10+ weanlings sold between the two sales and averages over $100,000 included: Quality Road  (11/avg $265,000); American Pharoah  (15/$225,000); and Candy Ride  (10/$212,500).

Leading sires with their first crops of weanlings selling were headed by the Darley pair of Nyquist  (5/$279,000) and Frosted  (10/$181,500), followed by: Runhappy  (15/$148,667); California Chrome  (7/$116,714); and Exaggerator  (9/$116,333).

War Front was leading covering sire, with seven mares in foal averaging $2,189,286. Tapit (6/$1,358,333) and Medaglia d'Oro (8/$1,177,500) were again two-three, followed by Curlin (9/$908.889). Arrogate  (8/$417,500), Gun Runner  (10/$367,500) and Claiborne's very popular Mastery  (28/$237,500) were the top first-year covering sires.