Handicapping Busy November Saturday of Graded Stakes

It's a bountiful stakes Saturday across the nation, offering something for handicappers of all persuasions.

Under the Twin Spires at Churchill Downs there are a dozen races for 2-year-olds, topped by the Golden Rod (G2) and the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), respectively headed by Restless Rider, the runner-up in the Tito's Handmade Vodka Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), and Knicks Go, the second-place finisher in the Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1).

In New York, Aqueduct Racetrack cards a trio of stakes, with the Discovery (G3) the final graded stakes opportunity of the local season for straight 3-year-olds, and the Long Island (G3T), the last graded stakes on the circuit scheduled for turf. Also on the program is the $125,000 Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship.

And out where the turf meets the surf, Del Mar offers a grassy stakes doubleheader consisting of the Jimmy Durante (G3T) for juvenile fillies and the Seabiscuit (G2T) for older males.

Golden Rod (CD, race 9, 4:57 ET): It's difficult to get past the first two betting choices, as Restless Rider (5) boasts both of the field's stakes wins, notably a clear-cut decision in the Darley Alcibiades (G1), and Break Curfew (8) exits a front-running debut win that suggested the daughter of Into Mischief  could be "any kind" for Chad Brown.

There's not a whole lot of rival speed for Break Curfew to deal with, which should enable her to clear over to the inside despite breaking from post 8.

The Golden Rod kicks off a late pick four. It may pay to chalk out here, using the two favorites in equal strength and spreading elsewhere.

Kentucky Jockey Club (CD, race 11, 5:56 ET): Knicks Go (13) is tabbed as the 2-1 favorite, but if you weren't on board for his shocking score in the Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (G1) at 70-1 or his exacta finish in the Juvenile at 40-1, do you really want to jump on the bandwagon in a situation where he may get hung out to dry among a crush of horses jockeying for early position?

There's no shortage of early pace in the match-up, which may lead to a good setup for the late-closing Signalman (1), who breaks from the rail after running a good third in the Juvenile from post 13.

Tracksmith (2) and Current (9) make the turf-to-dirt switch with suitable bloodlines for the move. 

Tracksmith (by Street Sense ) has had nearly seven weeks to freshen up after being positioned a bit closer to the early leaders than he prefers in the Dixiana Bourbon (G3T) and winding up beaten less than three lengths by Current. The latter comes off an excusable off-the-board finish on yielding ground in the BC Juvenile Turf (G1T) for Todd Pletcher, and it's worth noting the $725,000 colt by Curlin  is a half brother to Weep No More, who upset the 2016 Central Bank Ashland (G1).

Pletcher also entered King for a Day (12), who looms a strong early factor off a maiden route win at Belmont Park second time out, after which he recorded a pair of improved five-furlong workouts.

Dunph (4) has won his two starts by better than 16 lengths, capped by the Spendthrift Juvenile Stakes in his initial outing for Mike Maker.

A - 1, 9

B - 4, 12, 13

C - 2

Discovery (Aqu, race 6, 2:20 ET): Life's a Parlay opted for Friday's Gio Ponti when continued sub-freezing weather forced it off the grass, which will lower the odds on both Plainsman (3) and Gronkowski (6).

Plainsman has turned a corner since transferred to Brad Cox in late summer, running an impossibly wide third at Saratoga Race Course and following with back-to-back wins in allowance company.

Gronkowski is a riddle wrapped in an enigma at this point, after a highly promising second in the Belmont Stakes Presented By NYRA Bets (G1), followed by dull efforts in both the Runhappy Travers Stakes Presented By NYRA Bets (G1) and the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). Perhaps moving back in with his own age will help, but his trainer, Chad Brown, was at a loss to explain his tailspin.

A - 3

B - 6

Long Island Stakes (Aqu, race 9, 3:50 ET): Fittingly enough, Brown has three foreign-bred entrants in the final graded grass stake of the New York season—the Irish-bred Pollara (1), the French-bred Lady Paname (10) and the English-bred Night of England (11).

Temperatures were expected to warm to perhaps 50 degrees, but there is a strong chance (90%) for showers so the turf will surely be something other than firm.

Pollara and Lady Paname each boast good past races on soft going, and while Night of England has raced exclusively on "good" turf in Germany up to now, 11 furlongs is her distance and a second-place finish in the German Oaks (G1T) indicates she classes up nicely.

Lady Montdore (2) had things all her own way wiring the Glens Falls (G2T) in her second U.S. start for Tom Albertrani. The mile and three-eighths is right up her alley as well, and she may rebound after coming up a flat third in the Flower Bowl (G1T).

A - 1, 11

B - 2

C - 10

Jimmy Durante (Dmr, race 5, 2:30 PT): Six of the 13 fillies in the lineup began the year racing in Europe, including Graham Motion's pair of Pivottina (6), the tepid 7-2 favorite, and Monette (4), the 4-1 second choice. Both made up good ground in their initial stateside starts, Pivottina rallying from 12th to fourth in the Natalma (G1T) and Monette last of 11 early before closing to run second, beaten a diminishing head, in the Matron (G3T).

I'll use them both, but will key on a couple of potential price plays: Lakerball (2), who has blossomed since stretched out and placed on turf, winning two minor stakes; and Elsa (3), who is a tantalizing 20-1 on the morning line.

Elsa started off with a convincing debut sprint win at Laurel Park, and among those in her rear-view mirror was Varenka, who was eventually second in the Miss Grillo (G2T). She has had some time off since beaten as the favorite in the Bolton Landing and the Selima, and the latter race may be a toss owing to yielding turf. The Animal Kingdom  filly stretches out with a suitable pedigree and will be first-time Lasix after working a best-of-101 half-mile last week.

A - 2, 3

B - 4, 6

Seabiscuit (Dmr, race 7, 3:30 PT): This 1 1/16-mile route drew a field of 12, and is so wide open that Synchrony (7) is the favorite at 9-2, with four others pegged at 5-1 or 6-1 and four more at 8-1.

Synchrony should probably get a bit more respect, as he has won four graded stakes from five outings on firm turf in 2018, the only loss when stretched out of his comfort zone to 1 3/16 miles.

Unlike the Jimmy Durante, there is only one European in the mix. That is Pincheck (IRE) (4), who sheds 15 pounds off a third-place finish in a group 2 stake in Ireland last out. He lured Mike Smith, and a sharp win two back in the Invesco Desmond Stakes (G3T) says he belongs.

Big Score (2) finally gets a decent post after a slew of outside draws.

Caribou Club (1) has never been this far, but drew favorably and comes off a solid closing third in the Eddie D (G3T) behind Stormy Liberal, who then notched his second straight win in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1T).

A - 2, 4, 7

B - 1, 4