Breaking the Bank: Breeders’ Cup Edition

Breaking the Bank - featuring data courtesy of Equibase - highlights the biggest scores of the past week in racing. (Breeders' Cup photo by Eclipse Sportswire) 
Breeders’ Cup Friday was dominated by favorites — three of the four championship races were won by the top betting choice — but Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup card on Nov. 1 at Santa Anita restored chaos to the unexpected order of the previous day.
Only one favorite, Judy the Beauty, prevailed from Saturday’s nine championship races and she was a tepid choice in the Filly and Mare Sprint as the 3.10-to-1 co-favorite in a 10-horse field.
The fireworks started early with Take Charge Brandi winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies in front-running fashion at 61.70-to-1 odds, and she was the first of four winners at double-digit odds in the nine championship races on Saturday.
Breeders’ Cup Saturday was responsible for three of the top reported payouts from the table below. But even more interesting was the reality that three double-digit winners in the Pick 6 sequence, which featured 79 horses in the six races, led to a $1,335,505 carryover because nobody correctly picked all six winners in the sequence.
The carryover fueled a pool of more than $5-million on Sunday at Santa Anita Park for the Pick 6, which produced a massive payout of $115,418.60, the highest of the week for a multi-race wager.
Sunday’s Pick 6 also was actually the highest payout overall when you take a closer look at the reported $117,129.80 payout for the superfecta for Race 10 at Churchill Downs on Nov. 1. With only $70,812 total in the pool, it’s probably safe to deduce that the winning tickets were for the 10-cent minimum and paid $5,856.49 each.
Let’s get back to the Breeders’ Cup, which is where I’ll focus this week. What I found very interesting was that the consolation payout of the Pick 6 on Saturday — the one that ended with the Breeders’ Cup Classic and produced the carryover — was $114,472 for picking five out of six winners. That’s right, it was under $1,000 less than the payout for the Sunday carryover Pick 6 for picking five out of six.
So many factors contribute to the payout of a Pick 6, such as longshot winners and beaten favorites, that it’s impossible to just compare payouts from Saturday and Sunday, but what it does show is just how hard the handicapping puzzle was for the last six races on Saturday.
Let’s start with the opening leg of the Pick 6, the Turf Sprint. There were six horses at single-digit odds and four more between 13.20-to-1 and 19-to-1. The favorite, No Nay Never, was sent off at just above 7-to-2 odds.
So this was a balanced field, like most of them are for the Breeders’ Cup, and Bobby’s Kitten came out on top by rallying from last to first at 7.20-to-1.
Texas Red served up a nice upset in the next race at 13.90-to-1, with 9-to-5 favorite Carpe Diem second, before Main Sequence struck at 6.20-to-1, a gift for a horse with three Grade 1 wins in as many starts this year, in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.
Click here for Equibase charts from Breeders' Cup Saturday
The fourth race in the Pick 6 was the Sprint, a race that had been won by horses at double-digit odds in five of the last 10 races. Work All Week put away pacesetter Fast Anna in the stretch and held off defending winner Secret Circle for a victory at 19.10-to-1. The Breeders’ Cup is such a great betting event that a six-furlong specialist like Work All Week, who was unbeaten in seven previous starts on dirt, could go off at 19.10-to-1.
The Mile, Race 11, was the downfall of quite a few handicappers. French classic winner Karakontie had proven class but was completely overlooked, most likely because of recent form that looked poor on the surface but was actually forgivable. He had a brutal trip, getting bumped on multiple occasions in the Group 1 Prix de la Foret in his previous start. Prior to that, he had tested 1 5/16 miles and wanted no part of stretching out that far in his race before the Foret in the Group 1 Prix du Jockey Club. I’m not a prolific Tweeter by any stretch, but I was compelled to mention that he was being overlooked in the betting about 20 minutes before the race:

Hate the post but love 35-1 on Karakontie. Nice miler. Toss last two - Foret for brutal trip and he wanted no part of 1 5/16 miles. #BC14
— Mike Curry (@currymj19) November 1, 2014

Under a perfect ride from Stephane Pasquier, Karakontie streaked clear in the stretch to win by a length at 30-to-1 with Anodin, a full-sibling (same dam [mother], same sire [father]) to three-time Mile winner Goldikova, second at 10.50-to-1. Trade Storm rounded out the top three at 20.80-to-1, and he entered off of a win in the $1-million, Grade 1 Woodbine Mile Stakes, for a $1 trifecta that paid $5,010.70. The supefecta with Summer Front in fourth paid $9,361.68 for 10 cents!
The Work All Week-Karakontie Daily Double returned $1,676.40 for a $2 bet.
At that point, it was revealed that there would be a carryover of the Pick 6 regardless of the outcome in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, which was won by 6.10-to-1 Bayern amid a cloud of controversy after he ducked in at the start and disrupted several opponents, including 5-to-2 favorite Shared Belief, in the early going. 
CONTINUED BELOW THE TABLE
Top Payouts for the Week Ended Nov. 2

Wager
 Wager Amount 
 Payoff 
Track
Date
Race#

Win
 $2.00
 $219.00
IND
10/31/14
3

Place
 $2.00
 $77.40
IND
10/31/14
3

Show
 $2.00
 $41.80
MNR
11/1/14
3

Exacta
 $1.00
 $938.40
SA
10/30/14
5

Exacta
 $2.00
 $1,875.20
IND
10/31/14
3

Quinella
 $1.00
 $86.70
TUP
11/2/14
7

Quinella
 $2.00
 $107.50
AQU
10/30/14
4

Trifecta
 $0.50
 $737.05
DED
10/29/14
6

Trifecta
 $1.00
 $11,309.00
SA
11/1/14
4

Trifecta
 $2.00
 $49,221.60
IND
10/31/14
3

Superfecta
 $0.10
 $8,322.03
IND
10/29/14
8

Superfecta
 $0.20
 $25,906.28
HAW
11/1/14
9

Superfecta
 $0.50
 $16,594.85
MNR
10/27/14
8

Superfecta
 $1.00
 $98,235.30
LRL
11/1/14
5

Superfecta
 $2.00
 $117,129.80
CD
11/1/14
10

Daily Double
 $1.00
 $1,409.90
TUP
11/2/14
8

Daily Double
 $2.00
 $1,676.40
SA
11/1/14
11

Pick 3
 $0.50
 $355.55
DED
10/29/14
4

Pick 3
 $1.00
 $5,705.40
TUP
11/2/14
8

Pick 3
 $2.00
 $9,848.00
PEN
10/31/14
4

Pick 4
 $0.50
 $32,691.80
SA
11/1/14
7

Pick 4
 $1.00
 $32,506.60
WO
10/29/14
7

Pick 4
 $2.00
 $24,849.00
HAW
11/1/14
9

Pick 5
 $0.20
 $845.62
PM
11/2/14
10

Pick 5
 $0.50
 $17,953.10
CD
10/29/14
10

Pick 5
 $1.00
 $33,367.70
MNR
10/27/14
8

Pick 5
 $2.00
 $25,002.00
AQU
11/1/14
5

Pick 5 Jackpot
 $0.20
 $628.92
LRL
10/31/14
9

Pick 6
 $0.20
 $61,107.02
HAW
11/1/14
9

Pick 6
 $1.00
 $1,940.90
IND
11/1/14
8

Pick 6
 $2.00
 $115,418.60
SA
11/2/14
10

Pick 6 Jackpot
 $0.10
 $491.78
MED
10/31/14
6

Pick 6 Jackpot
 $0.20
 $8,639.74
CD
11/2/14
10

Super High Five
 $0.50
 $2,334.75
DED
10/30/14
5

Super High Five
 $1.00
 $89,066.20
SA
10/30/14
10

Super High Five
 $2.00
 $5,700.00
MNR
10/28/14
8

Click here for a complete list of racetracks with abbreviations.

© 2014 Equibase Company LLC, all rights reserved. Data provided or compiled by Equibase Company LLC generally is accurate, but occasionally errors and omissions occur as a result of incorrect data received by others, mistakes in processing and other causes. Equibase Company LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors, but would appreciate their being called to their attention.  

Let’s jump back to Take Charge Brandi, whose bombs-away, front-running upset in the Juvenile Fillies had the Twitter universe fearing a day-long speed bias. Turns out, once the Santa Anita main track dried out it played very fair, but certainly early on Saturday’s card speed held up incredibly well.
If you had identified that early bias, Take Charge Brandi would have been far more appealing as arguably the lone speed in that race. With Top Decile second at 5.80-to-1 and Wonder Gal third at 15.30-to-1, the $1 trifecta paid $11,309, the best of the week.
Feathered at 13.30-to-1 rounded out a Juvenile Fillies superfecta that cashed for a healthy $9,762 for 10 cents.
Take Charge Brandi also kick-started the top 50-cent Pick 4 of the week for a sequence that included Races 4-7 on Saturday at Santa Anita. Dayatthespa won Race 5, the Filly and Mare Turf, at 5.50-to-1 before Judy the Beauty won the Filly and Mare Sprint as the favorite in race 6. Bobby’s Kitten capped a Pick 4 that yielded $32,691.80 for a 50-cent bet.
It’s always interesting to look back at the Breeders’ Cup and learn lessons in handicapping. Over the years, I’ve learned to focus on six-furlong specialists to win the Sprint, key favorites in the Distaff (and, usually, Juvenile Fillies) and to look for European invaders who might fly under the radar in the Turf races.
This year, I learned that it’s easy to look back in this column and state that a certain horse was obvious to include on a Pick 4, Pick 5 or Pick 6, but it’s a lot harder to weed out the last horses on and off your tickets when trying to stay within a budget. Bayern was the last horse off my late Pick 4 ticket on Breeders’ Cup Saturday and it cost me, a lot, but at least it was easier to accept given I didn’t have Toast of New York or California Chrome on my ticket either.
The Breeders’ Cup is something bettors look forward to every year because it’s always a new puzzle to sift through, and the opportunity is always there to connect on a big score … potentially life-changing.
It’s also an event that creates indelible memories of races you had nailed. For some it’s Volponi or Court Vision or Spain, for me it’s Cajun Beat and Miesque’s Approval and now Karakontie.
The 2015 Breeders’ Cup can’t get here soon enough.

Commonly Used Gambling Terms

Account wagering – Betting by internet or phone, in which a bettor must open an account and deposit money with which to bet.
Across the board – A bet on a horse to win, place and show. If the horse wins, the player collects three ways; if second, two ways; and if third, one way, losing the win and place bets. Actually, three bets.
Bounce – An especially poor performance on the heels of an especially good one.
Box – A betting term denoting a combination bet whereby all possible numeric combinations are covered for certain horses.
Bridge jumper – A person who wagers large amounts of money, usually on short- priced horses to show, hoping to realize a small but almost certain profit. The term comes from the structure those bettors may seek if they lose the bet.
Chalk – Betting favorite in a race.
Chalk player – Gambler who wagers on favorites.
Daily Double (or Double) – Type of bet calling for the selection of winners of two consecutive races.
Exacta – A wager in which the first two finishers in a race, in exact order of finish, must be picked.
Exacta box – A wager in which all possible combinations using a given number of horses are selected.
Exotic (bet) – Any bet other than win, place, or show that requires multiple combinations. Examples of exotic wagers are trifecta, Pick 6, Pick 4.
Handle – Amount of money wagered in the pari-mutuel system on a race, full day of races, or entire racing season at a track.
In the money – A horse that finishes first, second or third.
Key horse – A single horse used in multiple combinations in an exotic bet.
Morning line – The starting odds set by the track handicapper.
On the board – Finishing among the first three.
On the nose – Betting a horse to win only.
Overlay – A horse whose odds are greater than its potential to win.
Pari-mutuel – System of wagering where all the money is returned to the bettors after deduction of track and state percentages.
Parlay – A multi-race bet in which all winnings are subsequently wagered on a succeeding race.
Part wheel – Using a key horse or horses in different, but not all possible, exotic wagering combinations.
Pick (6 or other number) – A type of multi-race bet in which the winners of all the included races must be selected. Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5, Pick 6 are commonly used by tracks in the United States.
Place bet – A bet on a horse to finish first or second.
Quinella - Bet in which the first two finishers must be picked in either order.
Show bet – A bet on a horse to finish in the money; third or better.
Speed Figure – A metric that rates a horse’s performance in a race, which is determined by a combination of the horse’s performance and the level of competition he/she competed against.
Trifecta – A bet in which the first three finishers must be selected in exact order.
Trifecta box – A trifecta wager in which all possible combinations using a given number of horses are bet upon.
Underlay – Horse whose odds are more promising than his potential to win.
Win – A bet on a horse to finish first.
Wheel – Betting all possible combinations in an exotic wager using at least one horse as the key.