Inside the Trip: Breeders’ Cup Data Recap

Trakus data indicates that Main Sequence's Breeders' Cup Turf win might have been even more impressive than it looked. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
Oh what a Breeders’ Cup! The last of three consecutive runnings at Santa Anita Park brought us some memorable races. It’s one thing to remember the winners, but quantifying some of the performances could be leveraged to your favor going forward: identifying horses to follow, perhaps some bets to make (or not make), and just generally better understand what all happened in a jam-packed weekend in California.
Let’s roll through the races chronologically from Friday.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
How about Hootenanny? This blog discussed his much-identified gaudy data from his debut win was followed by success at Royal Ascot, a just-miss effort at Deauville, and now perfection on the stretch out to one mile. Both he and stablemate Luck of the Kitten dominated affairs for trainer Wesley Ward.

Danny Boy had as perfect a trip as you could have for the first six furlongs of a two-turn race when drawn from gate 14. It went bad after that. He was checked numerous times when looking for run late. Here lies one of the big challenges with ground saving – sometimes the gaps come and sometimes they don’t. While finishing just eighth of 14, and covering the third-shortest trip in the field from that brutally wide draw, Danny Boy actually ran the fastest final sixteenth when finally getting some clear run.
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
Take two. Goldencents. That was all.
But there were some other interesting tidbits to emerge from the race as Chilean import Bronzo ran incredibly well. Hesitant to load and making his first start since June, Bronzo was last at the quarter-pole and rallied to finish fourth, yielding some very strong late sectionals as the only horse to really get drawn into the hot tempo. While Goldencents was lasting on the lead, running his final quarter in 25.83 seconds, Bronzo soared home on the rail in 25.05 seconds, and got the final eighth in 12.67.

Going forward, it will be compelling to identify whether or not Bronzo’s late kick was a function of a torrid pace that was collapsing or a gutsy effort first-up, making a meaningful move from well off the gallop. Fed Biz and Golden Ticket failed to engage at any time, while Bronzo soared past both of them. 
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Lady Eli showed a dazzling turn of hoof when winning the Miss Grillo Stakes at Belmont, and she came right back, saved all the ground, and exploded through the inside to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf going away.

Take note of the sectional times from Lady Eli’s last two races. The Miss Grillo was run at 1 1/16 miles at Belmont, while the Juvenile Fillies Turf was just a mile. Still, when gendering at the differences in the early pace, Lady Eli’s consistency in her Breeders’ Cup was remarkable.

Keep an eye on Partisan Politics in the future. Tracking just behind Lady Eli for much of the race, she was guided off the rail and asked to travel wide around the far turn, covering 30 feet more than her stablemate. While well-beaten for the win, she was slightly less than two lengths away from a placing and could have had a better result had she been kept behind the winner.
Breeders’ Cup Distaff
Untapable probably secured Eclipse Award honors with a win in the Distaff, and she did it again off a wide trip. Breaking from gate 10, Untapable never saw anything close to the rail, covering more ground than the next five finishers, including going 39 feet more than third-place finisher Iotapa, approximating to 4 ½ lengths. Fifth-place finisher Unbridled Forever was the second-fastest horse in the final sixteenth, getting that final segment in 6.46 seconds compared with Don’t Tell Sophia’s 6.43.

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
Judy the Beauty avenged a narrow loss to Groupie Doll in 2013 to get on top in 2014.

She covered the widest trip in the field, a quantitative fact she has embraced in the past. Judy the Beauty was the widest in a four-horse field in the Rancho Bernardo Hadicap at Del Mar in August and widest when she won the Madison Stakes at Keeneland in April. Amazingly, she finished just ahead of Better Lucky in that race, who had a brilliant, ground-saving ride under Javier Castellano, who propelled off the rail to commence his drive late. In April, the Judy the Beauty/Better Lucky exacta paid $16.20. Last Saturday, it paid $68.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
Take Charge Brandi made all the running at 61.70-1. Not the full story, but in the end it’s the one that mattered most on the day. Going forward, perhaps some other stories will make a greater impact. Second-place finisher Top Decile covered 43 feet more and third home Wonder Gal went 52 feet farther. Both fillies averaged 38.2 mph over the course of the race compared with Take Charge Brandi’s 38.0 mph.

The fastest finisher in the race was Puca, who finished sixth, beaten three lengths. A winner of her maiden race by 16 lengths, Puca was last with three furlongs to run and commenced a serious rally before catching traffic when the aforementioned Top Decile shut off a lane next to Wonder Gal. She could be a serious player in this division moving forward.  
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf
Pace makes the race … and don’t you forget it.
Dayatthespa has a long list of turf success, almost all of it coming on the front end. Entering the Filly and Mare Turf, the daughter of City Zip had 10 wins from 17 starts with four seconds – it’s tough to find horses more consistent. Given her head to go forward by Javier Castellano, Dayatthespa was not for the catching after establishing only a moderate tempo.

The story, really, was the trips everyone else endured. From start to finish, Stephanie’s Kitten, the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner covered 71 feet more than Dayatthespa, a distance that equates to roughly 8 ½ lengths of extra ground. Given that the margin between the two fillies was just 1 ¼ lengths, there should be little doubt the pace and trip were definitely to Stephanie’s Kitten’s detriment. Everyone else in the race? Well, they got led on a merry chase and ceded ground to the winner throughout. Take note of the added feet each horse covered, that distance converted to lengths (at roughly 8.5 feet per length), and their actual margin of defeat.

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
So … Bobby’s Kitten. Sometimes, the appearance of a horse closing quickly can be a bit of an illusion. A race might not actually be faster in its latter stages, although it appears that way as horses are being asked to maintain speed. The performance of Bobby’s Kitten was no illusion, running his first two furlongs of the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint in 22.73 seconds, and the last two in 21.96 seconds. Smoking.
He was 0.45 seconds faster than third-place finisher Undrafted, and 1.26 seconds quicker over that same stretch as second-place finisher No Nay Never. Last with three-sixteenths of a mile left to run, Bobby’s Kitten assaulted the grass below him, getting his final eighth in 11.22 seconds, 0.71 seconds quicker than No Nay Never.

On the flip side of the coin, Reneesgotzip darted from her inside draw and recorded a time of 21.52 seconds according to Trakus, while slowing notably in the last quarter, timed in just 24.01 seconds.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
On paper, it looked like about half the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile field wanted to go to the lead, and that’s what they did.

Going hot and heavy on the front end enabled Texas Red to sit idling at the back of the pack, saving ground early before swinging out late and catapulting past his 2-year-old rivals. Texas Red ran his final quarter in 24.67 seconds, a full 1.10 seconds quicker than Carpe Diem and 1.42 seconds faster than the next-quickest, third-place finisher Upstart. Daredevil, anywhere from five to six wide around the first turn, faded badly late and covered 59 feet more than Texas Red, running his final quarter in 29.18 seconds.
In our pre-Breeders’ Cup blog, we noted that Texas Red was running as fast as American Pharoah in the final eighth of the FrontRunner Stakes. Without both he and second-place finisher Calculator making it to the race, Texas Red stood up for the West Coast 2-year-olds.
Breeders’ Cup Turf
One of the most impressive winning performances of the 2014 Breeders’ Cup has to be that of Turf winner Main Sequence. While visually stunning, he endured a three-wide trip throughout nearly the entire race, covering more ground than the field. By the time they reached the conclusion of the 1 ½ miles, Main Sequence went 28 feet more than Arc de Triomphe runner-up Flintshire, 60 feet more than third-place finisher Twilight Eclipse, and 84 feet more than rail-drawn Telescope. Those distances equate to an extra 3 ¼, seven and nearly 10 lengths, respectively.

What’s more, Main Sequence had been just barely winning in his first three starts of the season, granted in top American turf company. This performance was scintillating, in the toughest test of the year, facing the second-place finisher from one of the most challenging and prestigious turf races in the world, not to mention the devastating winner of the Hardwicke Stakes.
Breeders’ Cup Sprint
This race had a little bit of everything.
First of all, how game is Work All Week? Last year, he was winning well in optional claiming company at Indiana Downs, then Illinois-bred stakes at Fairmount Park and Hawthorne Race Course. In 2014, he wins the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, and remains unbeaten on dirt, now 10-for-10. Fast Anna led Work All Week through the opening half-mile, but of the top ten finishers, the two leaders were the two slowest home in the final quarter and eighth.
Secret Circle and Private Zone ran highly credible races for second and third, but the horse that really caught our attention was fourth-place finisher Bourbon Courage. Drawn in gate 14 but absent any early speed, the son of Lion Heart was the only horse to make-up any significant ground with the hot pace, closing like a Quarter Horse down the center of the track. Bourbon Courage ran his final eighth of a mile 1.18 seconds quicker than the winner.

Take note of the three sectional times below for each horse – their individual opening half-mile splits, followed by the final quarters and final eighths. Given their attendance to the pace, Bourbon Courage was really the only one to show any late-race gusto, making up 10 ¼ lengths in the final two furlongs. Big Macher caught up with the pack and passed a few tiring horses, but petered out late while Bourbon Courage kept rolling.

From a ground-loss standpoint, it’s worth noting Private Zone covered 17 feet more than Work All Week, a distance that equates to two lengths. The two-time Vosburgh winner was beaten just 1.5 lengths.
Breeders’ Cup Mile
Some may have been concerned about backing Karakontie after the French Two Thousand Guineas winner was drawn in gate 14. It was of no concern to Stephane Pasquier, who managed to cover less ground than nearly half the field, and explode away from tiring rivals en route to a one-length score.

Anodin covered 17 feet more Karakontie, more than his margin of defeat, and also managed the fastest final splits in the race, home in 23.06 and 11.25, compared with Karakontie’s second-quickest, which were 23.28 and 11.55 seconds.
Tourist, who was floated very wide going into the first turn when Mustajeeb failed to corner well, covered 47 feet more than front-running leader Obviously through the first half-mile of the race, a distance that converts to about an extra 5 ½ lengths.
Breeders’ Cup Classic
Bayern won, no matter how you view the controversy at the start. Was he greatly aided by the lack of Moreno challenging the pace? On paper, it would seem so, but we will never know, so let’s just look at the data.
Bayern did not roll through ridiculously quick fractions, nor did he cover any extra ground. The son of Offlee Wild, who now stands in Turkey, went to the lead, had the rail, and it was race over. Toast of New York was second throughout and California Chrome was third for the vast majority of the race.

So what do we know about the wide trips?
California Chrome likes being outside – there is little debate that he has run much better when wide than inside. By the time they reached the finish, the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner had covered 41 feet more than Bayern. That equates to roughly 4 ¾ lengths. Fourth-place finisher Shared Belief and fifth home Tonalist covered 58 and 56 feet more, distances roughly equating to around 6 ½ lengths more than Bayern. While these statistics might seem a bit simplistic, the impact is rather obvious. In order to run wider around turns and maintain position, horses must run faster than those to their inside. While California Chrome has done his best running while wide, the expense it comes at is a need to run faster to hold position.
Look at all the pace and speed figures you want – Trakus records the speed of horses throughout the race. What you see below is the average miles per hour recorded for each horse over the course of the race.

The four finishers behind Bayern all averaged a speed at least as fast as the winner over the course of the race. Tonalist ran the fastest final quarter, coming home in 24.90 seconds, 0.44 seconds faster than the second-fastest to close, Zivo, who came from last. California Chrome was third-quickest over the final two furlongs, home in 25.36 seconds.
The race dynamics were irreparably changed at the start, when both Bayern and Toast of New York impeded Moreno in the opening stages. What was predictable on paper was thrown out the window as Martin Garcia’s dictated his own form of justice. The fact that Bayern, Toast of New York, and California Chrome were essentially 1-2-3 around the track leads us to believe all three “ran their race.” The only others to make an impact and measurably improve their position were Tonalist and Zivo.