Hot List Graded Stakes Review: $5-million Breeders’ Cup Classic
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It was a close finish in the Breeders' Cup and the Hot List was most interested in the horse who finished third. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
The 2014 edition of the Breeders’ Cup Classic figures to be one of one mostly hotly debated races in a quite a while.
The infamous “bump” that victorious Bayern delivered to the favored Shared Belief has created a firestorm all over the internet with most people chastising the stewards at Santa Anita for not disqualifying Bayern.
Regardless if the decision was right or wrong, it was obvious Shared Belief was bothered and with a smooth trip almost assuredly would have been closer at the finish line than his fourth-place finish, 3 ¾ lengths behind Bayern.
The runner-up, Toast of New York, added to the mess at the start by crossing over sharply from post nine. Speedy longshot Moreno, who was initially bumped when Bayern pushed Shared Belief into him, was then forced to check when Toast of New York crossed into his path and bumped him.
When the smoke cleared, both Shared Belief and Moreno were stuck behind a line of horses. Moreno, who was expected to challenge Bayern for the lead, was never closer than fifth at any of the calls and wound up last.
Shared Belief found even more trouble in the early stages as he checked off horses’ heels during the run to the first turn.
While no one will ever know for certain what would have happened in a picture-perfect race, what promises to have a more definitive and potentially lucrative answer involves who will move forward the most from the Classic and present a highly attractive wagering opportunity in his next start.
In this case, the most impressive effort was turned in by a horse unaffected by the chaos at the start, third-place finisher California Chrome who was slowly gaining on Bayern and Toast of New York at the finish and wound up just a nose and a neck behind the top two.
The performance by the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner was eye-catching because he was giving away a huge edge in conditioning to his rivals. The California-bred had just one start in five months since finishing in a dead-heat for fourth at the Belmont Stakes, and did little in the way of serious running in that race as he finished 7 1/4 lengths behind Bayern when sixth in the Pennsylvania Derby.
With a more fortifying regimen of recent races and also a better post than 13 in a field of 14, a sharper California Chrome might have saved some ground and surged past Bayern and Toast of New York in the final yards. Yet even though he fell short in the BC Classic, his gallant effort should make him much more formidable in his next start and he’ll be placed on Hot List’s A List as a prime horse to watch – though there may not be a yen to tag along if he opts to race next in Japan.
Looking for secondary choices for the B List is a search that could cover most of the field so we’ll opt on discretion over valor and monitor a number of them instead of assigning them letter.
Bayern, despite the trouble he caused, turned in a great performance as the 6.10-to-1 shot gamely hung on to win. Toast of New York also gave an exceptional effort, chasing Bayern throughout and just missing at the wire.
Toast of New York, who was 18.40-to-1 in the Classic, promises to offer much better odds than Bayern in their next start, but there has to be concern over how much a grueling duel in the Classic took out of them and whether the racing surface was overly kind to early speed. After all, the top three finishers ran 1-2-3 throughout the mile and a quarter trip around the track. Horses who led after the opening half-mile won five of the eight dirt races on Saturday and another winner was second after four furlongs. Three of the six went off at 6-1, so having speed surely was a blessing.
That alone worked against Tonalist, who, in an ill-advised move, was last in the field of 14 after the opening quarter-mile, trailing by 13 ½ lengths that he never made up. He lost by five lengths in a decent effort and should improve on that effort. Yet it’s also clear he loves Belmont Park and it would make little sense to use him as a key in his next start at the low odds that will no doubt be attached to him.
Zivo also had no chance while last racing after the opening mile and can do better than eighth at a track that favors his late-running style.
Shared Belief would be the obvious choice for a B or maybe an A, but there are concerns that in the end prevent it. As much as he was hurt by the rough start, it’s a matter of whether he’ll be a tougher opponent next time or react to a grinding effort.
The BC Classic was his third race in 10 weeks – two of them in Grade 1 stakes at a mile and a quarter – a tough assignment for a horse that has been lightly campaigned due to foot problems. Shared Belief is a good enough horse to win most races with a secondary effort, but when you add in the king’s ransom that will be wagered on him next time due to the notoriety of his bad trip, he will offer no value at the bettor’s windows.
There were only small drops in the late wagering, leaving just one horse to watch closely coming out of the Classic and that’s the horse everyone was focused on in the spring, California Chrome.
Circle completed.
Hot List horses: California Chrome (A)
Breeders’ Cup Classic Late Wagering Report
Horse No.
Name
Odds – 3 min. to post
Final Odds
1
Prayer for Relief
50
54
2
Cigar Street
11
11
3
Imperative
60
66
4
Moreno
26
28
5
V. E. Day
25
24
6
Shared Belief
2
5/2
7
Bayern
11
11
8
Zivo
12
11
9
Toast of New York
19
18
10
Footbridge
60
69
11
Tonalist
4
4
12
Candy Boy
22
20
13
California Chrome
4
4
14
Majestic Harbor
43
45
The Hot List, founded by turf writer/handicapper Bob Ehalt in 2011, blends a detailed analysis of a race with late wagering trends to pick out the horses with the best chance of running a winning race in their next start. Hot List horses are rated in four lettered categories:
A : A preferred horse to watch off his effort in the race B : A secondary horse to watch off his effort in the race *C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final minutes of wagering and finished 1st through 3rd *D: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final minutes of wagering and finished 4th or worse * - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
For questions on the Hot List, email: nyhotlist@gmail.com