A Look Back at the Year in Racing

Those dedicated to studying celestial bodies recognize that measuring the brigtness of stars depends on perspective. Closer objects will obviously be seen as more brilliant than those that might be more powerful yet farther away. Hence, astronomers have a term called "absolute magnitude" in which they attempt to determine a star's "true" luminosity based on how it would compare to other incandescent bodies.

It's a complex formula, one that weighs all sorts of factors for the sake of determining the most radiant objects. It is a computation the Thoroughbred racing community finds itself taking a stab at following a 2018 season that saw some scorching luminaries light up the landscape in a very different but no less brilliant fashion.

Take a Triple Crown winner—undefeated at that—who smashes through one of the last bastions of the game in completing a sweep some were writing off as too challenging just a few seasons ago. Add to the mix a top handicap horse and the presence of a filly who cleaned out her division and beyond, and the resulting concoction is a trio of pro-tem champions who in most years would be without peer in terms of single-season 

achievements.

Six races, six triumphs, a curse destroyed, and a most exceptional five-week odyssey. In 112 days the Bob Baffert-trained Justify  crafted a career for the ages when he debuted Feb. 18 and proceeded to morph into the sport's 13th Triple Crown winner by June 9. When he was retired in July, the son of Scat Daddy seemingly took with him any chance of another rival threatening him for Horse of the Year honors—that is until a fellow West Coast-based chestnut managed to ignite a debate over whether a steadily increasing glow can outshine a supernova.

From his repeated wins over the classic distance to leaving the comforts of home in order to cement his superiority, Hronis Racing's Accelerate  embodied the definition of an elite-level handicap horse. The 5-year-old son of Lookin At Lucky  danced seven times from February to November, notching six wins and five grade 1 triumphs with his final mic drop being a one-length victory in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1).

In addition to giving trainer John Sadler his long-awaited first Breeders' Cup victory, Accelerate joined the elite ranks of Affirmed (1979), Alysheba (1988), and Cigar (1995) by winning four grade 1 races at 1 1/4 miles on dirt in a single year—an especially noteworthy feat for a horse thought to have distance limitations during his 3- and 4-year-old seasons.

Remarkably enough, Accelerate had to share the honor of having the most grade 1 wins in 2018, and it wasn't with the Triple Crown hero. Were it not for the exploits of her male counterparts, the Brad Cox-trained Monomoy Girl would be a viable favorite to become the first female Horse of the Year since Havre de Grace in 2011 off the strength of a seven-race campaign that saw her reach the wire first each time. The copper-coated daughter of Tapizar  consistently put her classmates in their place leading up to her victory in the Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1), with her only defeat coming when she was disqualified to second due to interference with Midnight Bisou in the Sept. 22 Cotillion Stakes (G1).

Where the quality in a few different divisions came under fire in 2018 (see: turf males), part of that issue was brought on by the multiple figures who left little room for others to make meaningful statements. Including likely champion turf female Sistercharlie, four horses registered four or more grade 1 triumphs in North America during the season compared to 2017 when only champion Gun Runner  hit that threshold.

Fittingly, the reigning Horse of the Year set the tone for clear-cut superiority during his one and only appearance during the calendar season. Just days after his connections had been handed the golden trophy at the Eclipse Awards ceremony, Gun Runner capped his career with a 2 1/2-length victory Jan. 27 in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes (G1) at Gulfstream Park.

As the newly crowned king was then ushered off to the breeding shed at Three Chimneys Farm, the usual hangover began to set in. Was there a worthy successor capable of picking up the mantle in the older horse ranks? Was there any other talent who had the ability to transcend into the mainstream? Could the Triple Crown season again yield a bona fide star after two straight years of parity?

The short answer to all of the above was an emphatic "yes," so much so that it left many arguing whether the Horse of the Year race indeed ended when Justify added the final leg of the Triple Crown.

"It was really pretty fascinating, and it says a lot (that Accelerate is in the Horse of the Year conversation)," Sadler said. "In a different year it would be even more of a conversation on his behalf. This year you have two great horses, and I think everyone understands that whichever way (the voting) goes, it goes. You have two great choices, no doubt. But it is an interesting conversation."

BOY WHO WOULD BE KING

It wouldn't have been a stretch at the start of 2018 to deem a Baffert-trained runner as one most likely to come away with a classic triumph or even more.

The man who honed 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah  and all-time leading money earner Arrogate  had his shelves stocked once more with grade 1 winner McKinzie expected to carry the baton on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. And were his barn of normal ilk, the blow of having to declare the son of Street Sense  off the Triple Crown trail due to a leg injury at the end of March would have been enough to knock the wind out of its sails.

The beauty of being one of the all-time best is that you get prospects such as Justify standing in the on-deck circle scaring the bejesus out of opponents with his air-cracking swings. Owned by the partnership of WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, Head of Plains Partners, and Starlight Racing, the big-striding phenom was absorbing his lessons at a freakish rate—when, after breaking his maiden at first asking Feb. 18, he won an allowance optional claiming test in a canter March 11, then bested the likes of multiple grade 1 winner Bolt d'Oro  in the April 7 Santa Anita Derby (G1).

While toting the weight of Apollo's ghost around the rain-drenched Churchill Downs oval in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1), Justify bulldozed through one of the most reinforced barricades in the game when he became the first horse since 1882 to take the first leg of the Triple Crown without making a start as a 2-year-old.

Though a subsequent foot bruise kept Baffert from training the strapping colt up to his usual standards in the two weeks leading into the Preakness Stakes (G1), the slugfest he and champion Good Magic  engaged in en route to Justify's half-length win in the 1 3/16-mile test served to bring his fitness to a razor's edge heading into the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G1).

"The thing is with Justify, he made it look easy. That's how good a horse he is," Baffert said. "And the way that horse did it, coming around and doing it so quickly. He never bounced; he just kept going. By the time he got to the Belmont, he finally looked fit because he was sort of a big softy starting out.

"Once we got through (the Preakness), I was like, 'Man, we have three weeks. That's like a vacation for him.' I had time to get him ready for it."

Just as American Pharoah had things all his own way during his Triple Crown-clinching triumph, Justify kept the drama of the outcome to a minimum as he headed every point of call during his 1 3/4-length Belmont coronation. He had just achieved what many had placed on the near-impossible list a few years prior, and had done it with far less foundation than any others who also snatched racing's Holy Grail.

Perhaps because his predecessor had smashed the dam three seasons earlier, full appreciation for what Justify had overcome seemed somewhat muted.

"If Pharoah hadn't won it, this would have been huge," Baffert said. "It's like we're still having a Pharoah hangover. When (Justify) won second out, I thought, 'This is the Derby winner right here.' The Derby is the hardest one, and once he got through that ... I felt really good about him. We knew he was definitely a great horse. And we would have loved to have a longer campaign with him, but it didn't work out."

When a reported ankle injury cut Justify's career short and sent him off to Ashford Stud's stallion barn, the path was clear for his fellow sophomores to reinforce the pre-Kentucky Derby notion their class was one of the strongest in recent years. They struggled to hold up their end of that bargain as Good Magic, Lone Sailor, Firenze Fire, Tenfold, and Promises Fulfilled were the only horses who finished behind Justify during the Triple Crown races that returned to win graded stakes.

At least their leader mercifully left them to share the remaining spoils. The same could not be said of those who resided in a couple of racing's other glamour divisions.

THE BOLD AND THE SUSTAINABLE

The sight of a brilliant chestnut repeatedly breaking the spirit of foes was something that played out like Groundhog Day in 2018.

Running concurrently to Justify's meteoric ascent was Monomoy Girl's relentless reign over her fellow sophomore fillies. When she captured the April 7 Central Bank Ashland Stakes (G1) by 5 1/2 lengths, it marked the first career grade 1 win for her trainer Brad Cox and set the stage for her conditioner to enjoy a breakout season. She piled on more wins in the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1), Acorn Stakes (G1), and Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), and after bettering older girls in the Breeders' Cup Distaff, jockey Florent Geroux maintained he still had yet to ask his partner for the full measure of her mettle.

"If you said to me you could win any races in the year, what would they be? The Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Oaks, Preakness, Belmont, the Travers, and a Breeders' Cup race. That would be sort of the ultimate. This year, we won all of them and that made it just crazy," said Sol Kumin, who co-owns Monomoy Girl, co-owned Justify, and has a percentage of Runhappy Travers Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G1) victor Catholic Boy.

"Monomoy Girl being Brad Cox's first grade 1 winner ... just watching the emotion of that was extremely special."

After teasing his ability during his 4-year-old season when he defeated Arrogate at a point when that one looked unbeatable, Accelerate followed a similar prototype as Gun Runner by progressively upping his game to the point he could barely be touched over a route of ground.

The first gauntlet was thrown down when he took the Santa Anita Handicap Presented by San Manuel Indian Bingo and Casino (G1) by 5 1/2 lengths in March, his second graded win of the year and first top-level triumph.

Following a runner-up finish to eventual Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner City of Light  in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2), Accelerate yielded to none—adding the Gold Cup at Santa Anita Stakes (G1), $1 Million TVG Pacific Classic Stakes (G1), and Awesome Again Stakes (G1) to a body of work lacking only one other major piece.

If there was a knock on Accelerate, it was that he came from a program that had enjoyed limited success outside of California and had been blanked where the Breeders' Cup was concerned.

For weeks leading into the Classic, Sadler patiently answered questions about his status as one of the best trainers without a win in the World Championships. He then happily conceded the floor to his burnished charge, who responded with a score that earned him star billing on a day that also saw Juddmonte Farms' brilliant filly Enable become the first horse to secure the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1) and Longines Breeders' Cup Turf (G1T) in the same season.

"I read somewhere where it said maybe (Accelerate) did this all in the wrong year. But maybe Justify won the Triple Crown in the wrong year, I don't know," said owner Kosta Hronis. "This horse is special. He's shown up every time; he's danced every dance; he's been solid. It's a body of work, and what he's done in the last 12 months, I think he'd be well deserved to be of that (Horse of the Year) honor, no doubt." 

Among Justify, Monomoy Girl, Accelerate, and Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1T) heroine Sistercharlie, the quartet suffered a total of three defeats from a combined 22 starts in 2018.

In terms of giving no quarter to their opponents, though, it could be argued that the most commanding figure in North American racing the past year never ran a step over a track. 

IT'S A CHAD, CHAD, CHAD, CHAD WORLD

The best part of winning the past two Eclipse Awards as Outstanding Trainer, according to Chad Brown, was not the satisfaction of being acknowledged for his ability, it was that it allowed him to publicly thank virtually every member of his staff. He joked earlier in the year that his goal was to keep going up there enough times that he gets his speech up to a half hour.

Given the way he keeps raising an already ridiculously high bar, the producers of the Eclipse Awards should consider themselves warned.

Another year, another set of milestones fall by the wayside where Brown is concerned. The just-turned 40-year-old again established single-season marks for himself for wins and purse money while dominating almost every avenue he ventured into. Included in his 46 graded stakes victories through Dec. 10 were 19 grade 1 triumphs—many obtained in bunches.

The first weekend of December saw Brown win all three top-level contests in the United States. Yet, even that achievement paled when put up against the first weekend of October when Brown horses captured four grade 1 tests in a span of two days.

The native of Mechanicville, N.Y., also remained a hostile host at Saratoga Race Course, breaking his own mark for wins during the 2018 meeting and clinching his second training title at his home oval. And when Newspaperofrecord and Sistercharlie prevailed in their respective Breeders' Cup races, Brown's win total in the World Championships tallied 12, tied for third all-time with Aidan O'Brien.

"He started with nothing and he earned it all on his own," said Kumin, whose list of Brown-trained horses includes champion Lady Eli and A Raving Beauty. "He's as good if not better with campaigning a horse in knowing when to push and knowing when to give the horse a break and step off. When you look at the owners who are buying good horses and expensive horses...he's getting extremely good ammunition. But he earned that on his own."

Brown's stats speak for themselves, but with Baffert producing his second Triple Crown and having the likely champion juvenile male in unbeaten Game Winner, predicting who will win the outstanding trainer Eclipse is no slam dunk.

It all depends which lens one chooses to view their achievements. The good news is that there are no dim stars in play to be deemed the 2018 center of the racing universe.

BloodHorse.com is sharing the 2018 year in racing story from the magazine (Dec. 22/29, 2018) to provide  a glimpse of the type of unique stories readers can expect each week with BloodHorse magazine. For subscribers, there's more to come as major races are recapped each week by BloodHorse magazine/tablet. 

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