Litfin at Large: Derby Preps on Both Coasts

The first tentative steps on the road to Louisville are being taken this week across the country. At Aqueduct Racetrack on New Year's Day, Hopeful Stakes (G1) winner Mind Control walked his beat as the favorite in the Jerome Stakes and picked up 10 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) on the first Saturday in May.

On the first Saturday of 2019, the programs for newly turned 3-year-olds at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita Park get going as well.

In South Florida the $100,000 Mucho Macho Man is the last of five stakes for sophomores on the card, and, while it's not a Derby points race, features the return of the William S. Farish homebred Code of Honor. Preceding that one-mile race are a couple of $75,000 restricted six-furlong sprints for sprinters, the Limehouse and the Glitter Woman, plus two open $100,000 grass events at "about" 7 1/2 furlongs, the Ginger Brew for fillies and the Kitten's Joy for males.

The Great Race Place is where you'll find the first two graded stakes races of the season—the $200,000 San Gabriel (G2T) for older turf routers, and the $100,000 Sham (G3), a two-turn mile that offers 17 qualifying Derby points (10-4-2-1).

At the Big A, a field of 10 older New York-bred fillies and mares go seven furlongs in the $100,000 La Verdad. The forecast there is for quintessential "Aqueduct weather," which is to say a cold wind-driven rain with highs in the mid-40s. Needless to say, the forecasts in California and Florida are considerably brighter.

San Gabriel (Santa Anita, race 7, 3:04 p.m. PT): The richest race of the year so far attracted a field of 10, including Flamboyant (6), who won this race in 2016 and was a fast-closing second in the 2018 renewal.

Flamboyant has won just once from his last 18 starts, however, and like just about everybody else in the matchup, he does his best running from off the pace.

The best guess as to who will go to the front is Big Bend (9), a three-time winner on the lead for Tom Proctor who may be in to ensure an honest pace for stablemate Chicago Style (5), who just captured the Hollywood Turf Cup (G2T) second time back from an extended layoff.

The key horses for me, though, will be Liam the Charmer (1) and Next Shares (7), on the theory they will rebound from their respective off-the-board finishes in the Longines Breeders' Cup Turf (G1T) and the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1T). Liam the Charmer beat one horse in the Turf, but that one horse was Glorious Empire, who didn't handle the going either, and returned to wire the Fort Lauderdale (G2T) for his third graded stakes win of 2018. Next Shares spent the first half of the Mile along the inside, which was the deepest part of the drying-out course, but prior to that he was a big-figure winner of the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1T).

A - 1, 7

B - 5, 6

Sham (Santa Anita, race 9, 4:04 p.m. PT): Bob Baffert, who already has two top Derby prospects in Game Winner and Improbable, will shoot for a sixth Sham score with Coliseum (5) and Much Better (7).

Coliseum will be a heavy favorite after winning his debut impressively, but the homebred gray colt by Tapit  had an easy time of it on the lead at Del Mar and will face some pace pressure here from Savagery (3), who argued the pace in the Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity (G1) and is one of two entered by Peter Miller, along with Gray Magician (2). The latter had been knocking on the door in his first three attempts against maidens, then busted it down off a short layoff and a barn change.

Gunmetal Gray (6) was second best to Game Winner in the American Pharoah (G1), then passed seven horses through the late stages of the Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) to wind up fifth. That has been a productive race so far, as third finisher Signalman returned to win the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and Mind Control (seventh) rebounded to take the Jerome.

Coliseum may be the goods, but how he handles pressure remains to be seen. Gunmetal Gray is right with him off his two best races, and the improving Gray Magician may get a good setup.

A - 2, 6

B - 5

Mucho Macho Man (Gulfstream, race 10, 4:41 p.m. ET): Whenever a Shug McGaughey-trained juvenile wins at first asking, it's news, and naturally Code of Honor flew onto everyone's radar when he went gate to wire in his Saratoga debut and then rallied for second in the Champagne (G1) after stumbling at the start.

But then Code of Honor (4) spiked a fever on the eve of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and was scratched, and then missed a scheduled start in the Remsen (G2) when he failed to train up to par. Moreover, the Champagne has bordered on negative-key-race territory, because with the exception of third finisher Call Paul, who was then a well-beaten third in the Nashua (G3) before beating Pennsylvania-breds at 1-5, no one from that race has come back to do much of anything, notably the winner, Complexity, who was beaten 20 lengths in the Juvenile as the second choice.

The alternative to the favorite is Mihos (6), who ran third to eventual Nashua winner Vekoma first time out, and followed with a maiden win that was far more decisive than the winning margin of just over a length might suggest. The son of 2014 Holy Bull (G2) winner Cairo Prince  posted his best workout to date Dec. 30 and figures to run a bang-up race breaking from the outside.

A - 6

B - 4