Derby Futures: New Year, New Stars

The prep season for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) is fully underway as the new year unfolds.

Below is a look at William Hill's future-book odds for the Kentucky Derby, highlighting some key horses that have recently raced.

Jan. 6 William Hill Odds Leaders to Win the Kentucky Derby

1) Game Winner (5-1)

2) Coliseum (8-1)

2) Improbable (8-1)

4) Instagrand (10-1)

5) Gunmetal Gray (12-1)

Five to Watch

Gunmetal Gray: Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer was already represented by a talented colt on the Derby 2019 trail in Instagrand, who blew away his opponents in two races at Del Mar last summer and was then shelved for a 3-year-old campaign that should begin soon. The California-based Hall of Fame trainer now has another promising contender in Sham Stakes (G3) winner Gunmetal Gray, who benefited from a patient ride from Mike Smith to rally from last of seven and win the Jan. 5 Sham by a length. The son of Exchange Rate sits at future-book odds of 12-1 at William Hill, dropping from 60-1 on their previous sheet. He's been keeping good company throughout his five-race career, competing against the likes of Game Winner (finishing second to that future-book leader in the American Pharoah Stakes [G1]) and Roadster, among others. This appropriately named colt earned a career-high 105 Equibase Speed Figure in the Sham and fits in nicely with the other top California-based Derby contenders, although his pedigree suggests he should perform best in middle distance-races such as a mile to a mile and sixteenth. 

Mind Control: Here's another horse who won impressively in a recent prep but profiles more as a miler rather than a top-level Derby contender. Mind Control rebounded from a rough-trip seventh in the Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) to score a 1 1/2-length win in the one-mile Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct on New Year's Day, his third win in five career starts. His odds dropped from 80-1 to 60-1 on William Hill's sheet, indicating that the Derby future-casters are still a bit skeptical about this Stay Thirsty  colt's ability at the classic mile-and-a-quarter distance. He did earn a career-best 101 Equibase Speed Figure in the Jerome, where he set a contested but modest early pace and continued on well to the wire. 

Mihos: This Jimmy Jerkens-trained son of promising young stallion Cairo Prince  scored a neck win in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream Park traveling a one-turn mile Jan. 5, and his odds dropped from 150-1 to 40-1 on William Hill's book as a result. Jockey Jose Ortiz was urging Mihos from a stalking position through the far turn at Gulfstream as the colt gained the advantage against odds-on Code of Honor while both traveled wide, and then set down to catch leader Trophy Chaser at the wire. The stakes win was far from visually impressive as Mihos did not change leads until midstretch, but he did earn a career-high 100 Equibase Speed Figure and improved his career record to 2-for-3 following a solid 1 1/4-length maiden win at Aqueduct in November. Mihos has a decent, though not spectacular, pedigree on his dam's side, but as noted above, Cairo Prince holds some intrigue as a young stallion with a strong distance pedigree (by Pioneerofthe Nile and out of a Holy Bull mare) whose racing career was cut short. Jerkens told Gulfstream Park publicity that he planned to keep Mihos in South Florida and target Gulfstream's upcoming Derby preps.

Nolo Contesto: Here's a debut contender on William Hill's latest update, entering the future-book wagering at 80-1. Racing for Accelerate 's connections of owner Hronis Racing and trainer John Sadler, this Pioneerofthe Nile ridgling progressed nicely in his second career start Jan. 4 at Santa Anita Park. He was caught wide in the first turn of the one-mile maiden special weight, but otherwise enjoyed a good stalking trip under Joel Rosario and engaged favored Omaha Beach at the top of the lane for an exciting stretch duel between two precocious 3-year-olds. Nolo Contesto won by a half-length in his comeback race after a fifth-place effort in his debut at Del Mar Dec. 1, and earned an eye-catching 111 Equibase Speed Figure. His dam Applauding, by Congrats , set a track record for six furlongs at Keeneland in 2011, back when Keeneland had a synthetic-surface main track. It will be interesting to see if Sadler targets a first-level allowance for Nolo Contesto's next start or moves him up to tackle stakes company.

Gun It: Here's another new entrant on William Hill's future book to keep very close tabs on. He sits at 100-1 on the Jan. 6 sheet following a 4 1/4-length score in a 1 1/16-mile maiden at Fair Grounds Dec. 22, which was his second career start after finishing fourth in a race at the same distance at Churchill Downs in late October. In his career debut, the Steve Asmussen trainee contested the early pace only to tire in the stretch, but he showed more maturity in his sophomore effort, stalking the pace under Ricardo Santana Jr. while saving ground through the backstretch and then moving out three-wide and taking command at the top of the lane. Gun It threw his head a few times in midstretch, but was kept to task by his jockey and appeared to have plenty left at the finish, earning a 95 Equibase Speed Figure. This colt sold for $2.6 million at the 2017 Keeneland September yearling auction to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm, who races him with co-breeder Three Chimneys Farm. His pedigree is one of the best I've seen among this group of Kentucky Derby contenders, as he's a son of leading sire Tapit  and out of Miss Besilu. That mare finished third twice in two grade 1 stakes during her racing career, and she's a half-sister to 2005 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner Saint Liam and also to grade 1 winner Funtastic and grade 2 winner Quiet Giant, the dam of reigning Horse of the Year Gun Runner . As of Jan. 8, Gun It is not listed among the probables for next weekend's Lecomte Stakes ... but stay tuned.

A Patrick Reed story provided to BloodHorse by America's Best Racing