Weather Could Impact Saturday's Graded Stakes

Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita Park are where you'll find the graded stakes action Jan. 12, as both Stronach Group facilities card a pair of grade 3 events.

Strangely enough, weather could be a factor at both tracks. The Tropical Turf and the Marshua's River are scheduled for the grass at Gulfstream, and there is a 40% chance of rain early in the day. The same 40% chance of showers could potentially affect the Las Cinegas down the hill and the La Canada on the main track at The Great Race Place.

The Gulfstream grass races each have morning-line favorites trained by Brian Lynch who return from layoffs and exhibit the same workout patterns: the veteran Heart to Heart in the Tropical Turf and the newly turned 4-year-old filly La Signare in the Marshua's River. While contenders in this space are usually ranked in A-B-C order, we're taking a somewhat different approach with these two races, because in each case there is a longshot in peaking form that we want to try and get on the board.

Tropical Turf (GP, race 9, 3:45 ET): The graded stakes victory tally here is Heart to Heart 11 and the rest of the field 1. The "1" belongs to Doctor Mounty (4), who took the Baltimore/Washington Turf Cup (G3T) by a nose at 26-1 three races back.

Heart to Heart (6) has won five of seven stakes starts over the local course, the lone defeats in the last two renewals of the Fort Lauderdale (G2T), a race the 8-year-old horse won in 2016. He is coming off a Jekyll-and-Hyde season, having notched two grade 1 wins (and nearly a third) through the first half of 2018, but finishing off the board in both starts during the second half of the year.

Heart to Heart is 4-5 and obviously the one to beat—heck, he's actually getting a break in the weights the way the race is written, getting four pounds from Doctor Mounty. He is also the controlling speed, provided he breaks cleanly, which is something he doesn't always do. 

White Flag (2) clearly has ability, but he has been best up to seven furlongs so it's hard to get overly enthusiastic about him as the likely second choice.

The bomber at 30-1 on the morning line is Your Only Man (7), who was freshened off a claim by Marcus Vitali at Saratoga Race Course and has come back with three bang-up races in South Florida. He is back quickly after running a close second New Year's Day in a very strong starter/optional claiming field that included six stakes winners. His closing kick is pretty good compared to the others, and he picks up Irad Ortiz Jr.

Win - 7

Exactas - 2, 4, 6 with 7

Trifectas - 2, 4, 6 with ALL with 7

Marshua's River (GP, race 11, 4:47 ET): Three of these fillies are newly turned 4-year-olds facing older stakes runners for the first time, including 3-1 favorite La Signare (7), who walked on the lead taking the Wonder Again Stakes (G3T) and makes her first appearance since failing to stay 10 furlongs in the Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1T) in early July.

La Signare's Wonder Again stands as this group's only graded stakes win, although Bellavais (1), Valedictorian (4), I'm Betty G (6) and Monte Crista (8) are very useful types that have all won turf stakes worth at least $100,000.

The 20-1 sleeper is Rose Tree (5), whose only turf try was a troubled trip in a division of the Tropical Park Oaks at Gulfstream in December 2017. She has won three of five subsequent starts on dirt and synthetic, capped by a win over second-level optional claiming company that featured an impressive move (middle half-mile under 46 seconds) three weeks ago for Hall Of Fame trainer Jonathan Sheppard. Two bullet workouts have followed, and she projects to get a favorable pace setup behind I'm Betty G and La Signare.

Win - 5

Exactas - 1, 4, 6, 7, 8 with 5

Trifectas - 1, 4, 6, 7, 8 with ALL with 5

Las Cienegas (SA race 6, 3:04 PT): This field of nine is swiftly whittled to just four courtesy of James Quinn, the dean of contemporary handicapping authors, who covered  Santa Anita's quirky hillside course in "The Complete Handicapper."

"...the key to success on Santa Anita's peculiar downhill turf course is the merciless avoidance of any American-based horse 4UP that has not won or run well on the course in the past."

By that strategy, out go Fiery Lady, Tesora, Lady Suebee and Selcourt, although the latter is only expected to run if the race comes off the turf following a pop-and-stop try in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1). Of course, if rain forces the race to the main track Selcourt becomes a legitimate odds-on choice.

Two among the surviving quartet are trained by Peter Miller: Belvoir Bay (4) and Painting Corners (9). The latter set a screaming pace when second best in the Sen. Ken Maddy (G3T) when last seen in early November.

Belvoir Bay is a bona fide horse for the course at 4-0-1 from five tries at 6 1/2 furlongs. She is effective with any running style, has won previously when fresh, and shows a slate of solid works.

Compelled (1) was a wide third to Belvoir Bay in the Monrovia (G2T) over this layout last May. She has run only twice since then, but the Glen Hill Farm homebred owns a potent late kick.

A - 4

B - 1, 9

La Canada (SA, race 8, 4:04 PT): None among the seven entered are higher than 8-1 on the line, and it's a competitive mix that contains a trio of newly turned 4-year-olds now facing older stakes mares, among them True Royalty (4) whose win in the Torrey Pines (G3) last summer stands as the lone graded stakes score in the lineup.

Tabbed as the tepid 5-2 favorite is the Manitoba-bred mare Escape Clause (6), whose 17-for-24 record on dirt has been compiled primarily at Assiniboia Downs. Her first three starts on the SoCal circuit came on turf toward the end of 2018, and she is back in two weeks after a tough trip behind the speedy Fahan Mura in the Robert J. Frankel (G3T).

Escape Clause gets a positive rider switch to Tyler Baze, and whether she reverts to her usual close-up style will be a big key to the chances of Stradella Road (2). The latter has never been on dirt before, but she is by Elusive Quality and out of a Del Mar Debutante (G1) winner, trains over this surface, and has enough early speed to avoid taking kickback.

Bernina Star (5) is third back from a layoff, and her last dirt start was a third (albeit a distant one) behind Unique Bella in the Clement L. Hirsch (G1). There is no one of that ilk to worry about here.

A - 2, 6

B - 4, 5